APPLICATION OF GREY MODEL AND ARTIFICIAL NEURAL NETWORKS TO FLOOD FORECASTING1

The main focus of this study was to compare the Grey model and several artificial neural network (ANN) models for real time flood forecasting, including a comparison of the models for various lead times (ranging from one to six hours). For hydrological applications, the Grey model has the advantage that it can easily be used in forecasting without assuming that forecast storm events exhibit the same stochastic characteristics as the storm events themselves. The major advantage of an ANN in rainfall‐runoff modeling is that there is no requirement for any prior assumptions regarding the processes involved. The Grey model and three ANN models were applied to a 2,509 km² watershed in the Republic of Korea to compare the results for real time flood forecasting with from one to six hours of lead time. The fifth‐order Grey model and the ANN models with the optimal network architectures, represented by ANN1004 (34 input nodes, 21 hidden nodes, and 1 output node), ANN1010 (40 input nodes, 25 hidden nodes, and 1 output node), and ANN1004T (14 input nodes, 21 hidden nodes, and 1 output node), were adopted to evaluate the effects of time lags and differences between area mean and point rainfall. The Grey model and the ANN models, which provided reliable forecasts with one to six hours of lead time, were calibrated and their datasets validated. The results showed that the Grey model and the ANN1010 model achieved the highest level of performance in forecasting runoff for one to six lead hours. The ANN model architectures (ANN1004 and ANN1010) that used point rainfall data performed better than the model that used mean rainfall data (ANN1004T) in the real time forecasting. The selected models thus appear to be a useful tool for flood forecasting in Korea.     

The European whitefish, Coregonus lavaretus (L.), under conditions of technogenic pollution in the Kostomuksha tailing pond

The population structure and biological parameters of the European whitefish, Coregonus lavaretus (L.), have been analyzed in a technogenically polluted water body. The biochemical state of the whitefish and the fauna and morphology of helminths parasitizing them have been assessed. It is shown that the species composition of the fish, plankton, benthos, and parasite faunas of this water body are depleted and the morphological parameters of common fish parasites are altered. It is noted that, in addition to adaptive rearrangements in biochemical metabolism, the whitefish from the transformed water body are characterized by a reduction in the level of protein synthesis in muscles and the rate of aerobic energy metabolism in the liver and muscles.     

Radium isotopes in the Ulsan Bay

In order to estimate the fluxes of Ra isotopes, we measured 224Ra, 226Ra, and 228Ra activities in the Ulsan Bay mixing zone. The convex upwards curvature of the plot of Ra isotope activities versus salinity for the mixing zone suggests that Ra isotopes are supplied from particles entering the mixing zone from both the river and bottom sediments. This addition increases the estuarine flux of 226Ra and 228Ra to the outer sea by factors of 15 and 95 over the flux attributable to Ra dissolved in the riverine water alone. In order to estimate the residence time of the water in Ulsan Bay, we applied a mass balance model to the distribution of 224Ra and 226Ra activities in the Ulsan Bay mixing zone with the inflow from the Taehwa River. The obtained residence times of the waters in the Ulsan Bay were estimated to be 6.8-11.4 d. The waters in the upper part of the estuary have long residence times whereas those in the lower part, in contact with the open sea, have shorter residence times. The mean residence time of the water in the Ulsan Bay was estimated to be 9.1 d.     

Ecology of Nuclear Polyhedrosis Virus in Western Siberian Populations of the Gypsy Moth (<Emphasis Type="Italic">Lymantria dispar</Emphasis> L.)

The impact of the nuclear polyhedrosis virus on the population dynamics of the gypsy moth Lymantria dispar L. has been studied. The results have shown that polyhedrosis morbidity in the western Siberian population of the insect is relatively low, compared to that reported for North American and European populations. A possible cause of this situation is found in the high migration activity of moths in the Asian L. dispar populations, which allows the virus load on the biotope to remain relatively stable and insufficient for the initiation of mass viral diseases during population outbreaks.__________Translated from Ekologiya, No. 3, 2005, pp. 222–226.Original Russian Text Copyright © 2005 by Ilinykh.     

Emission of PCDD/Fs and dioxin-like PCBs from metallurgy industries in S. Korea

The metallurgy industry and municipal waste incinerators are considered the main sources of polychlorinated dibenzo-p-dioxin and dibenzofurans (PCDD/Fs) in many countries. This study investigated the emission factors and total emissions of PCDD/Fs and dioxin-like polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) emitted from metallurgy industries (including ferrous and nonferrous foundries) in Korea. The toxic equivalency (TEQ) emission factor of PCDD/Fs was the highest for secondary copper production, at 24451 ng I-TEQ/ton. The total estimated emissions of PCDD/Fs from these sources were 35.259 g I-TEQ/yr, comprising 0.088 g I-TEQ/yr from ferrous foundries, 31.713 g I-TEQ/yr from copper production, 1.716 g I-TEQ/yr from lead production, 0.111 g I-TEQ/yr from zinc production, and 1.631 g I-TEQ/yr from aluminum production. The total estimated annual amounts of dioxin-like PCBs emitted from these sources were 13.260 g WHO-TEQ/yr, comprising 0.014 g WHO-TEQ/yr from ferrous foundries, 12.675 g WHO-TEQ/yr from copper production, 0.170 g WHO-TEQ/yr from lead production, 0.017 g WHO-TEQ/yr from zinc production, and 0.384 g WHO-TEQ/yr from aluminum production. The highest emission factor was found for secondary copper smelting, at 9770 ng WHO-TEQ/ton.     

Distribution characteristics of polychlorinated biphenyls in crucian carp (Carassius auratus) from major rivers in Korea

Polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) levels in crucian carp were determined at 20 locations along four major river systems, several small-scale rivers and a wetland in Korea. Twenty-eight congeners, ranging from tri- to hepta-CBs were detected. A gas chromatograph with a mass selective detector was used to quantify the individual PCB congeners. The objectives of this study were to investigate the levels of contamination of PCBs in freshwater fish and to observe the pattern of their distribution. The sampling locations were chosen among 31 sampling sites that are currently used as environmental residue checkpoints by the Korean Ministry of Environment. Concentrations of individual congeners ranged from not detectable (n.d.) to 0.75 ng g(-1) on a wet weight basis. The total concentrations of PCBs at each site ranged from n.d. to 5.41 ng g(-1) of wet weight. The most heavily contaminated site was the Nakdong estuary located near the Shinpyung-Janglim factory district. The PCB 153 and 138 were the principal congeners and penta- and hexa-chlorinated biphenyls comprised the main congener groups.     

Dietary intake of PCDDs, PCDFs and dioxin-like PCBs, due to the consumption of various marine organisms from Korea

Polychlorinated dibenzo-p-dioxins (PCDDs), polychlorinated dibenzofurans (PCDFs) and dioxin-like polychlorinated biphenyls (DL-PCBs) residues were measured in 70 marine organisms (40 species) from Korean coastal waters. The PCDD/Fs residues in the organisms varied from 0.02 to 4.39 pg WHO-TEQ/g wet weight and the DL-PCBs residues varied from 0.008 to 6.0 pg WHO-TEQ/g wet weight. The levels in fish from Korean coastal waters were comparable to those found in other countries. Comparing organism groups, the highest PCDD/Fs and DL-PCBs residues were recorded in crustaceans, followed by fish, cephalopods, bivalves and gastropods. Although the congener distributions of PCDD/Fs and DL-PCBs in the organism groups were different, the dominant contributors to the total TEQ concentrations in all groups were 2,3,4,7,8-pentachlorinated dibenzofuran (PeCDF), 1,2,3,7,8-pentachlorinated dibenzo-p-dioxin (PeCDD) and PCB 126. The dietary intake of PCDD/Fs and DL-PCBs from the consumption of marine organisms in Korea was estimated to be 0.68 pg WHO-TEQ/kg bodyweight/day. The contribution of DL-PCBs to the total dietary intake from all organisms groups averaged 60%. The relative contribution of each organism group to the total dietary intake was, in descending order: fish, crustaceans, cephalopods, bivalves and gastropods. The current dietary intake was lower than those in countries with a similar dietary pattern to Korea, but higher than those in countries with smaller quantities of seafood consumption.     

Changes in air saturation and air-water interfacial area during surfactant-enhanced air sparging in saturated sand

Reduction in the surface tension of groundwater, prior to air sparging for removal of volatile organic contaminant from aquifer, can greatly enhance the air content and the extent of influence when air sparging is implemented. However, detailed information on the functional relationship between water saturation, air-water contact area induced by air sparging and the surface tension of water has not been available. In this study, the influence of adding water-soluble anionic surfactant (sodium dodecyl benzene sulfonate) into groundwater before air sparging on the air-water interfacial area and water saturation was investigated using a laboratory-scale sand packed column. It was found that water saturation decreases with decreasing surface tension of water until it reaches a point where this trend is reversed so that water saturation increases with further decrease in the surface tension. The lowest water saturation of 0.58 was achieved at a surface tension of 45.4 dyn/cm, which is considered as the optimum surface tension for maximum de-saturation for the initially water-saturated sand used in this study. The air-water contact area generated in the sand column due to air sparging was measured using a gaseous interfacial tracer, n-decane, and was found to monotonically increase with decreasing water saturation. The results of this study provide useful design information for surfactant-enhanced air sparging removal of volatile contaminants from aquifers.