Evaluating Uncertain CO2 Abatement over the Very Long Term

Climate change research with the economic methodology of cost–benefit analysis is challenging because of valuation and ethical issues associated with the long delays between CO₂ emissions and much of their potential damages, typically of several centuries. The large uncertainties with which climate change impacts are known today and the possibly temporary nature of some envisaged CO₂ abatement options exacerbate this challenge. For example, potential leakage of CO₂ from geological reservoirs, after this greenhouse gas has been stored artificially underground for climate control reasons, requires an analysis in which the uncertain climatic consequences of leakage are valued over many centuries. We here present a discussion of some of the relevant questions in this context and provide calculations with the top–down energy-environment-economy model DEMETER. Given the long-term features of the climate change conundrum as well as of technologies that can contribute to its solution, we considered it necessary extending DEMETER to cover a period from today until the year?3000, a time span so far hardly investigated with integrated assessment models of climate change.     

The Impact of Uncertainty in Climate Targets and CO2 Storage Availability on Long-Term Emissions Abatement

A major characteristic of our global interactive climate-energy system is the large uncertainty that exists with respect to both future environmental requirements and the means available for fulfilling these. Potentially, a key technology for leading the transition from the current fossil fuel-dominated energy system to a more sustainable one is carbon dioxide capture and storage. Uncertainties exist, however, concerning the large-scale implementability of this technology, such as related to the regional availability of storage sites for the captured CO₂. We analyze these uncertainties from an integrated assessment perspective by using the bottom-up model TIAM-ECN and by studying a set of scenarios that cover a range of different climate targets and technology futures. Our study consists of two main approaches: (1) a sensitivity analysis through the investigation of a number of scenarios under perfect foresight decision making and (2) a stochastic programming exercise that allows for simultaneously considering a set of potential future states-of-the-world. We find that, if a stringent climate (forcing) target is a possibility, it dominates the solution: if deep CO₂ emission reductions are not started as soon as possible, the target may become unreachable. Attaining a stringent climate target comes in any case at a disproportionally high price, which indicates that adaptation measures or climate damages might be preferable to the high mitigation costs such a target implies.     

Management Principles for Negotiating Waste Facility Siting Agreements

Initial failure to site a small hazardous waste transfer station focussed attention on the need for a siting approach to overcome community resistance to negotiating siting agreements. A community study program was structured utilizing key principles of community decision making to justify need, to allow for community value judgments of gains, losses and fairness, and to encourage community adaptation to change by providing community control and choice. By translating these principles into specific actions, community awareness and responsibility were fostered and resulted in a consensus to negotiate with transfer station proponents in over 70 percent of the fourteen participating communities. The successful communities represented the entire range of size, income, education levels, type and ownership of homes. Participants stated that the key factors that contributed to their success in reaching consensus were the recognition of need, choice of options and of management measures to minimize impacts, economic cost reduction, and the growth of community pride as a result of taking part in the decision process. These factors reflect the positive effect and the significance of applying the derived decision-making principles.     

Sustainable recycling model: A comparative analysis between India and Tanzania

Higher economic growth in developing countries has caused higher amounts of wastes. Local government authorities in these countries usually fail to provide adequate services to dispose the increasing amounts of waste, resulting in threats for both the population and environment health. There is therefore an urgent need for recycling as a form of waste management in order to stop the devastating effects of solid waste in developing countries. Using a qualitative method of analysis, this study presents a model to measure and rank the sustainability of recycling programs in India and Tanzania. The model consists of six main constructs including “production, economic, governmental, social, technological, and international factors”. The results showed that India outperforms Tanzania in sustainable recycling programs: per capita waste generated per day in Delhi is higher than in Dar es Salaam; the government of India focuses more on developing recycling plans and techniques as compared to the government of Tanzania where the country is not actively involved in the recycling process; and the solid waste management planning in India is being performed better than Tanzania.     

Future risk of flooding: an analysis of changes in potential loss of life in South Holland (The Netherlands)

Potential loss of life is considered an important indicator of flood risk. We examine the future development of potential loss of life due to flooding for a major flood prone area in The Netherlands. The analysis is based on projections and spatial distribution of population under a high economic growth scenario and a loss of life model. Results show that the projected population growth in flood prone areas is higher than average in the Netherlands between 2000 and 2040. Due to this effect the potential number of fatalities is projected to increase by 68% on average for 10 different flood scenarios, not including impacts from climate change and sea level rise. Just sea level rise of 0.30 m leads to an average 20% increase in the number of fatalities. The combined impact of sea level rise and population growth leads to an estimated doubling in the potential number of fatalities. Taking into account increasing probability of flooding due to sea level rise and extreme river discharges, the expected number of fatalities could quadruple by 2040. The presented results give a conservative and upper bound estimate of the increase of the risk level when no preventive measures are undertaken. It is found that the consideration of the exact spatial distribution of population growth is essential for arriving at reliable estimates of future risk of flooding.     

Adjusting irrigation abstraction to minimise the impact on stream flow in the East of Scotland

Abstractions of surface and groundwater for irrigation in Scotland are currently subject to control in only two small catchments. Under the terms of the EU Water Framework Directive, it will be necessary to introduce new legislation to control abstractions elsewhere. To help in the development of appropriate policy for Scotland a study has been carried out to examine the significance of irrigation and the effectiveness of different types of control strategies in terms of the economics of potato cropping and stream hydrology in Scotland. This paper presents the findings of the hydrological study and highlights some of the spatial and temporal issues that need to be considered in the selection of control mechanisms, if they are to be successful in achieving objectives for environmental improvement.The study was focussed on two catchments in the east of Scotland, the Tyne and West Peffer. The effectiveness of several different abstraction control strategies was examined to see how stream flows in the catchment would be modified by their implementation. The results of the study demonstrated that the West Peffer catchment in particular is significantly affected by irrigation abstractions. Control mechanisms based on allowable monthly abstraction volumes and flow-based abstraction bans would be of considerable help in restoring stream flows to their natural levels, but would modify the hydrological regime in slightly different ways. A spatial analysis of stream flows demonstrated that implementation of controls based on a single monitoring point may be ineffective at maintaining acceptable levels of flow throughout the catchment and that this may require a tighter control at the monitoring point.