Using fuzzy set theory to address the uncertainty of susceptibility to drought

This paper presents the technical aspects of a new methodology for assessing the susceptibility of society to drought. The methodology consists of a combination of inference modelling and fuzzy logic applications. Four steps are followed: (1) model input variables are selected—these variables reflect the main factors influencing susceptibility in a social group, population or region, (2) fuzzification—the uncertainties of the input variables are made explicit by representing them as ‘fuzzy membership functions’, (3) inference modelling—the input variables are used to construct a model made up of linguistic rules, and (4) defuzzification—results from the model in linguistic form are translated into numerical form, also through the use of fuzzy membership functions. The disadvantages and advantages of this methodology became apparent when it was applied to the assessment of susceptibility from three disciplinary perspectives: Disadvantages include the difficulty in validating results and the subjectivity involved with specifying fuzzy membership functions and the rules of the inference model. Advantages of the methodology are its transparency, because all model assumptions have to be made explicit in the form of inference rules; its flexibility, in that informal and expert knowledge can be incorporated through ‘fuzzy membership functions’ and through the rules in the inference model; and its versatility, since numerical data can be converted to linguistic statements and vice versa through the procedures of ‘fuzzification’ and ‘defuzzification’.     

博茨瓦纳欧科范果湿地1972～2000年泛滥方式

欧科范果三角洲地区泛滥范围年年在变化.这种变化与安哥拉高地集水区的区域性降水及当地降雨量有关.我们采用了1972～2000年的3000多幅卫星图像来描绘湿地的格局,其中从1985～2000年的图像几乎是NOAAAVHRR每日连续传送的,1972年以来的其它图像是从Landsat传感器上传下来的,其连续性次之.对AVHRR图像每10天为一期,用无监督分类方法分成陆地和水体.对LandsatTM和ERS2-ATSR数据进行分析的结果,与测算的淹没区域89%相吻合.结果显示欧科范果湿地近期30年期间的变化约在2450～11400km2之间.     

Flavonoid wing pigments increase attractiveness of female common blue (Polyommatus icarus) butterflies to mate-searching males

 Common blue butterflies (Polyommatus icarus) sequester flavonoids from their larval host plants and allocate these UV-absorbing pigments to the wings. In field experiments using dummies constructed from female butterflies, mate-searching males inspected flavonoid-rich dummies more intensively than those with little or no flavonoids. Flavonoid content as signalled by UV-wing pattern may indicate ontogenetically determined female quality or enhance detectability to males. Received: 21 March 2000 / Accepted in revised form: 17 May 2000     

The impact of constituent ions of acid mist on assimilation and stomatal conductance of Norway spruce prior and post mid-winter freezing

Norway spruce seedlings were sprayed twice weekly with one of a range of artificial mists at either pH 2.5, 3.0 or 5.6, for three months. The mists consisted of either (NH4)2SO4 (pH 5.6), NH4NO3 (pH 5.6), water (pH 5.6), HNO3 (pH 2.5), H2SO4 (pH 2.5). In late December 1988 and early January 1989 the light response of assimilation and stomatal conductance were assessed in the laboratory following a 4-day equilibration period at 12 degrees C. The intact trees were then subjected to a mild (-10 degrees C), brief (3 h) frost in the dark and the recovery of light saturated assimilation (Amax) was followed during the subsequent light period. The same trees were then subjected to a second 3 h (-18 degrees C) frost. The recovery of Amax during the next day was followed. All ion-containing mists stimulated Amax and apparent quantum yield relative to control trees, irrespective of pH. The mists containing SO4 made stomatal conductance unresponsive to light flux density and caused the stomata to lock open. Frosts of -10 degrees C and -18 degrees C did not inhibit the Amax of control trees for longer than 200 min into the light period. In contrast, the ion-containing mists exerted a significant inhibitory effect upon the recovery of Amax. Nitric acid inhibited Amax to 35% of the pre-frost value, whilst the remaining treatments inhibited Amax between 15% and 40% of the pre-frost value. It is concluded that SO4 causes increased mid-winter frost sensitivity and NO3 ameliortes this effect. The results are discussed in relation to forest decline.     

Acute toxicity of aromatic and non-aromatic fractions of naphthenic acids extracted from oil sands process-affected water to larval zebrafish

The toxicity of oil sands process-affected water (OSPW) has regularly been attributed to naphthenic acids, which exist in complex mixtures. If on remediation treatment (e.g., ozonation) or on entering the environment, the mixtures of these acids all behave in the same way, then they can be studied as a whole. If, however, some acids are resistant to change, whilst others are not, or are less resistant, it is important to establish which sub-classes of acids are the most toxic.