Forest protection and economic development by offshoring wood extraction: Bhutan’s clean development path

With globalization, virtual exchanges of natural resources embodied in traded commodities redistribute geographically land use and its environmental impacts. Benefits of national forest protection may be undermined at the global-scale by leakage through international trade. We studied land use displacement associated with national policies to protect forests in Bhutan. This case study provides a simple situation: a dominant forest cover almost unaffected by agricultural expansion, a rural economy dominated by the primary sector, centralized forest conservation policies, and a dominant trading partner. We assessed the net effects at the international level of the Bhutanese forest protection policies by accounting for trade in wood products with India. Our results show that these policies have been effective in maintaining a high forest cover, but have been accompanied by an increasing displacement of forest use to India. In 1996–2011, the difference between the total volume of wood imported from India and the total volume exported from Bhutan—i.e., the net displacement—corresponds to 27 % of the total volume consumed in Bhutan. In 2011, 68 % of the total forest area required to produce the wood consumed in Bhutan was located in India. The wood imported by Bhutan was likely originating from tree plantations in the northeastern Indian states. Since Bhutan has few tree plantations and very valuable natural forests, the net international-level ecological impacts of this land use displacement is arguably positive. Most of the wood imports of Bhutan were wood charcoal for its emerging chemical industries. This case of displacement reflects functional upgrading in the value-chain rather than an externalization of consumption-based environmental costs. Through its government policies, Bhutan has managed to support its economic development while protecting its forests and leapfrogging the negative impacts on forests generally associated with the early stages of modernization.     

The landscape epidemiology of foot-and-mouth disease in South Africa: A spatially explicit multi-agent simulation

This study aimed at understanding how landscape heterogeneity influences outbreaks of contagious diseases in southern Africa. Landscape attributes influence patterns of movement and behaviour of animal hosts, virus spread and survival, as well as land use practices. A multi-agent simulation was developed to represent the spatial and temporal dynamics of pathogens between human-livestock and wildlife interfaces at the fringe of large wildlife conservation areas. The model represents the three main elements associated with epidemics - populations, space, and time - to simulate direct contacts between wildlife and livestock. The dynamics of these populations emerge from interactions between agents and the landscape. The model was calibrated to represent the transmission of foot-and-mouth disease through direct contact at the border of the Kruger National Park in South Africa. In the region, African buffaloes (Syncerus caffer) act as reservoirs of the virus and spread the infection to domestic cattle bordering the park. We tested the sensitivity of various factors influencing contact rate between buffaloes and cattle, and thus the risk of foot-and-mouth disease transmission. Results show that cattle-buffalo contacts mostly depend on the range of displacements of cattle and buffaloes, as influenced by the landscape configuration, and on the number of fence breakages multiplied by the time between breakage and repair. Contacts take place not only close to water-points but also in grazing areas, within an area up to 6 km from the fence.     

Spatial organization and mating system of Microtus townsendii

Summary Space use by individual Townsend's voles, Microtus townsendii, was investigated in spring and summer by means of radiotelemetry and intensive live trapping in undisturbed grasslands near Vancouver, British Columbia. Home ranges of males were larger than those of females; females had significantly larger ranges in spring than in summer. Most males and females maintained territories free of individuals of the same sex in spring. Male-female pairs had their exclusive territories closely overlapping each other. The 1:1 operational sex ratio and the spatial association of pairs of males and females suggest that the voles were monogamous in the spring of 1988 and that 50% of the males were monogamous in the spring of 1989. In summer, there was more intrasexual overlap between home ranges of males and females and female ranges were considerably smaller than those of males. Females were more philopatric than males and females thought to be members of the same family group lived adjacent to each other or had overlapping home ranges. Males overlapped with more than one female in summer, but most females still overlapped with only one male, which suggests that the mating system is polygynous in summer. Thirty-five percent of the philopatric females became pregnant for the first time when the male spatially associated with their mother in the spring was still alive and thus could potentially have mated with their fathers. Male and female territoriality in spring is the proximate mechanism for the limitation of breeding density by spacing behaviour.[/p] Offprint requests to: C.J. Krebs     

A multi-agent simulation to assess the risk of malaria re-emergence in southern France

A multi-agent simulation (MAS) was developed to assess the risk of malaria re-emergence in the Camargue in southern France, a non-endemic area where mosquitoes of the genus Anopheles (Culicidae) live. The contact rate between people and potential malaria vectors, or the human biting rate, is one of the key factor to predict the risk of re-emergence of malaria, would the parasite be introduced in the region. Our model (called MALCAM) represents the different agents that could influence malaria transmission in the Camargue – people, mosquitoes, animal hosts and the landscape – in a spatially explicit environment. The model simulates spatial and temporal variations in human biting rate at the landscape scale. These variations depend on the distribution of people and potential vectors, their behaviour and their interactions. A land use/cover map was used as a cellular-spatial support for the movements of and interactions between mobile agents. The model was tested for its sensitivity to variations in parameter values, and for the agreement between field observations and model predictions. The MALCAM model provides a tool to better understand the interactions between the multiple agents of the disease transmission system, and the land use and land cover factors that control the spatial heterogeneity in these interactions. It allows testing hypotheses and scenarios related to disease dynamics by varying the value of exogenous biological, geographical, or human factors. This application of agent-based modelling to a human vector-borne disease can be adapted to different diseases and regions.     

Vulnerability of land systems to fire: Interactions among humans,climate, the atmosphere,and ecosystems

Fires are critical elements in the Earth System, linking climate, humans, and vegetation. With 200–500 Mha burnt annually, fire disturbs a greater area over a wider variety of biomes than any other natural disturbance. Fire ignition, propagation, and impacts depend on the interactions among climate, vegetation structure, and land use on local to regional scales. Therefore, fires and their effects on terrestrial ecosystems are highly sensitive to global change. Fires can cause dramatic changes in the structure and functioning of ecosystems. They have significant impacts on the atmosphere and biogeochemical cycles. By contributing significantly to greenhouse gas (e.g., with the release of 1.7–4.1 Pg of carbon per year) and aerosol emissions, and modifying surface properties, they affect not only vegetation but also climate. Fires also modify the provision of a variety of ecosystem services such as carbon sequestration, soil fertility, grazing value, biodiversity, and tourism, and can hence trigger land use change. Fires must therefore be included in global and regional assessments of vulnerability to global change. Fundamental understanding of vulnerability of land systems to fire is required to advise management and policy. Assessing regional vulnerabilities resulting from biophysical and human consequences of changed fire regimes under global change scenarios requires an integrated approach. Here we present a generic conceptual framework for such integrated, multidisciplinary studies. The framework is structured around three interacting (partially nested) subsystems whose contribute to vulnerability. The first subsystem describes the controls on fire regimes (exposure). A first feedback subsystem links fire regimes to atmospheric and climate dynamics within the Earth System (sensitivity), while the second feedback subsystem links changes in fire regimes to changes in the provision of ecological services and to their consequences for human systems (adaptability). We then briefly illustrate how the framework can be applied to two regional cases with contrasting ecological and human context: boreal forests of northern America and African savannahs.     

Prediction of the impact of logging activities on forest cover: a case-study in the east province of Cameroon

The objective of this study was to test the value of the concept of the net commercial value of standing timber in predicting the impact of logging activities on forest-cover modifications. A study area was selected in the East province of Cameroon which contains major primary forests and which contributes strongly to national timber production. A Geographic Information System containing ecological and economic variables was used in combination with remote sensing data to define the net commercial value of standing timber in the East province. Taking account of the potential commercial value of standing timber improves our understanding of the spatial determinants of logging activities and of the resulting forest-cover modifications. The occurrence of logging-induced forest-cover modifications increases with the value of forest rent. In one of the study sites, half of the very high rent areas have already been logged. In that site, therefore, it is mostly the low rent or marginal forest areas that remain unlogged. This was not the case, however, throughout the study area as shown by the observations at another site.     

An agenda for assessing and improving conservation impacts of sustainability standards in tropical agriculture

Sustainability standards and certification serve to differentiate and provide market recognition to goods produced in accordance with social and environmental good practices, typically including practices to protect biodiversity. Such standards have seen rapid growth, including in tropical agricultural commodities such as cocoa, coffee, palm oil, soybeans, and tea. Given the role of sustainability standards in influencing land use in hotspots of biodiversity, deforestation, and agricultural intensification, much could be gained from efforts to evaluate and increase the conservation payoff of these schemes. To this end, we devised a systematic approach for monitoring and evaluating the conservation impacts of agricultural sustainability standards and for using the resulting evidence to improve the effectiveness of such standards over time. The approach is oriented around a set of hypotheses and corresponding research questions about how sustainability standards are predicted to deliver conservation benefits. These questions are addressed through data from multiple sources, including basic common information from certification audits; field monitoring of environmental outcomes at a sample of certified sites; and rigorous impact assessment research based on experimental or quasi‐experimental methods. Integration of these sources can generate time‐series data that are comparable across sites and regions and provide detailed portraits of the effects of sustainability standards. To implement this approach, we propose new collaborations between the conservation research community and the sustainability standards community to develop common indicators and monitoring protocols, foster data sharing and synthesis, and link research and practice more effectively. As the role of sustainability standards in tropical land‐use governance continues to evolve, robust evidence on the factors contributing to effectiveness can help to ensure that such standards are designed and implemented to maximize benefits for biodiversity conservation.     

Home range shifts by breeding female Townsend's voles (Microtus townsendii ): a test of the territory bequeathal hypothesis

Numerous accounts of partial or complete breeding dispersal by adult females reported in the literature on microtines have been interpreted as maternal bequeathal. However, for most species, no causal relationship between a female's movements between successive litters and the settlement of her offspring in the natal range has been demonstrated. I tested predictions from the bequeathal hypothesis using data from an intensive study of Townsend's voles where genetical relationship had been determined by marking most pups in the maternal nest before weaning. After correcting statistically for temporal changes in the distance moved between successive litters I rejected the following predictions: (1) that females with one or several daughters of reproductive age should be more likely to disperse or disperse farther between successive births than females without such daughters; (2) that mothers should be more likely to bequeath their range to their daughters in spring when the latter would gain most from having ready access to a breeding range; (3) that daughters benefit from their mother abandoning the natal range through an increase in their probability of recruitment; and (4) that daughters actually use the home range vacated by their mother. I critically reassess the empirical studies quoted as evidence that breeding dispersal is a form of parental investment in microtines and other mammals. Most empirical studies cited in support of the bequeathal hypothesis often only contain anecdotal reports of movements by breeding females or do not mention it as one of its possible adaptive functions. Some studies contain evidence only consistent with the bequeathal hypothesis whereas others are incompatible with this explanation. Documented evidence of bequeathal comes exclusively from species which rely on a semi-permanent resource such as a midden, mound or burrow. I conclude that there is no indication from Townsend's voles or any other microtines that females abandon their breeding range to their female offspring as a form of parental investment. Received: 27 February 1996 / Accepted after revision: 1 March 1997