Slow-fast dynamics in Wonderland

Taking Wonderland—a simple model of demographic, economic and environmental interactions—as our artificial world, we illustrate the use of geometric singular perturbation theory in environmental demoeconomics. The theory of slow-fast dynamics helps us to gain new insights into the system's behaviour and enables one to reduce the inherent unpredictability of a “natural catastrophe” in Wonderland. Though we cannot predict the exact date of such an “environmental crash”, we can state the specific demographic, economic and environmental constellations of our artificial world at which the sustainability of nature becomes endangered.     

Easurements of placental,decidual, and fetal proteins before and after chorionic villus sampling

Circulating placental [human chorionic gonadotrophin (hCG), Schwangerschafts protein 1 (SP1), pregnancy-associated plasma protein A (PAPP-A), decidual (pregnancy protein) 12 (PP12), and fetal alphafetoprotein (AFP)] proteins were measured immediately before and within 1 h in 18 women undergoing diagnostic chorionic villus sampling (CVS) in the first trimester. An elevation of serum AFP levels was consistently seen, while fluctuations in excess of 10 per cent of the pre-CVS levels of SP1 and PP12 were seen in the majority of patients. Fluctuations in hCG and PAPP-A were consistently less than 10 per cent of pre-CVS values. Post-CVS changes in levels were not apparently associated with any feature of the technique, the pregnancy, or its outcome (one missed abortion). As feto-maternal haemorrhage is a common event, anti-D should be offered to rhesus-negative women undergoing CVS. In the prediction of subsequent miscarriage, only hCG and PAPP-A measurements should be considered.     

VEGETATION INFLUENCE ON SMALL STREAM SILTATION1

ABSTRACT: A meandering stream channel was simulated in the Hydraulics Laboratory at Colorado State University and a series of tests was conducted using four types of vegetation to evaluate the potential effects of vegetation on sediment deposition and retention in a stream channel. The data collected included average flow velocity, flow depth, length of vegetation, density of vegetation, cross-sectional area of the vegetative stem, wetted perimeter of the vegetative stem, and injection and flushing time. The findings indicated that the vegetation could retain from 30 to 70 percent of the deposited sediments. The ability of vegetation to entrap and retain sediment is related to the length and cross-sectional area of the vegetation. The variables describing the flow and the vegetative properties were combined to form a predictive parameter, the sedimentation factor (S_d) that can be compared with the amount of sediment entrapped by vegetation in a stream system. A relation was developed correlating vegetation length to sediment retention after flushing for flexibility and rigid vegetation.     

RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN ANNUAL RUNOFF AND WATERSHED AREA FOR THE EASTERN UNITED STATES1

ABSTRACT: As part of the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's effort to determine the long-term effects of acidic deposition on surface water chemistry, annual runoff was estimated for about 1000 ungaged sites in the eastern U.S. using runoff contour maps. One concern in using contour maps was that a bias may be introduced in the runoff estimates due to the size of the 1000 ungaged sites relative to the size of the watersheds used in developing the maps. To determine if a bias was present the relationship between the annual runoff (expressed as depth) and the watershed area for the Northeast (NE) and Southern Blue Ridge Province (SBRP) was tested using five regional data bases. One short-term data base (1984 Water Year, n = 531) and two long-term data bases (1940–57, n = 134 and 1951–80, n = 342) were used in the NE. In the SBRP one short-term database (1984 Water Year, n = 531) and one long-term data base (1951–80, n = 60) were used. For the NE and the SBRP, runoff was not directly correlated with watershed area using the five regional databases. Also, runoff normalized by precipitation was not related to watershed area.     

Reduction of arsenic uptake by lettuce with ferrous sulfate applied to contaminated soil

Soil contamination by arsenic (As) presents a hazard in many countries and there is a need for techniques to minimize As uptake by plants. A proposed in situ remediation method was tested by growing lettuce (Lactuca sativa L. cv. Kermit) in a greenhouse pot experiment on soil that contained 577 mg As kg(-1), taken from a former As smelter site. All combinations of iron (Fe) oxides, at concentrations of 0.00, 0.22, 0.54, and 1.09% (w/w), and lime, at concentrations of 0.00, 0.27, 0.68, and 1.36% (w/w), were tested in a factorial design. To create the treatments, field-moist soil, commercial-grade FeSO4, and ground agricultural lime were mixed and stored for one week, allowing Fe oxides to precipitate. Iron oxides gave highly significant (P < 0.001) reductions in lettuce As concentrations, down to 11% of the lettuce As concentration for untreated soil. For the Fe oxides and lime treatment combinations where soil pH was maintained nearly constant, the lettuce As concentration declined in an exponential relationship with increasing FeSO4 application rate and lettuce yield was almost unchanged. Iron oxides applied at a concentration of 1.09% did not give significantly lower lettuce As concentrations than the 0.54% treatment. Simultaneous addition of lime with FeSO4, was essential. Ferrous sulfate with insufficient lime lowered soil pH and caused mobilization of Al, Ba, Co, Cr, Cu, Fe, K, Mg, Mn, Na, Ni, Pb, Sr, and Zn. At the highest Fe oxide to lime ratios, Mn toxicity caused severe yield loss.     

Use of Streamflow Data to Estimate Base Flow/Ground‐Water Recharge For Wisconsin1

Abstract: The average annual base flow/recharge was determined for streamflow‐gaging stations throughout Wisconsin by base‐flow separation. A map of the State was prepared that shows the average annual base flow for the period 1970‐99 for watersheds at 118 gaging stations. Trend analysis was performed on 22 of the 118 streamflow‐gaging stations that had long‐term records, unregulated flow, and provided aerial coverage of the State. The analysis found that a statistically significant increasing trend was occurring for watersheds where the primary land use was agriculture. Most gaging stations where the land cover was forest had no significant trend. A method to estimate the average annual base flow at ungaged sites was developed by multiple‐regression analysis using basin characteristics. The equation with the lowest standard error of estimate, 9.5%, has drainage area, soil infiltration and base flow factor as independent variables. To determine the average annual base flow for smaller watersheds, estimates were made at low‐flow partial‐record stations in 3 of the 12 major river basins in Wisconsin. Regression equations were developed for each of the three major river basins using basin characteristics. Drainage area, soil infiltration, basin storage and base‐flow factor were the independent variables in the regression equations with the lowest standard error of estimate. The standard error of estimate ranged from 17% to 52% for the three river basins.     

USE OF A PREDICTIVE MODEL IN EVALUATING WATER CONSUMPTION CONSERVATION1

ABSTRACT: The effectiveness of water conservation policies on reduction of water consumption was evaluated by use of a multiple regression predictive model. Data were obtained from eight Iowa communities, with regard to water consumption and water conservation policies adopted during the drought of 1977. The proposed model, which takes precipitation, temperature, month effects, and uniqueness of communities into account, is considered superior to the use of simple percent changes in evaluating the significance of reduction in water consumption due to conservation efforts. Among the variety of policies reviewed, mandatory policies with per capita restrictions were found to be most effective. However, voluntary conservation policies also resulted in significant reduction in some communities located in close proximity to other communities with severer water shortages. High credibility of local governments as to water shortage information was singled out as the most important factor in successful conservation by water resource policymakers of these communities. Use of the proposed predictive model for water consumption was demonstrated. Recommendations regarding future water conservation were made.