Carp (Cyprinidae) Fisheries in Swedish Lakes: A Combined Environmental Assessment Approach to Evaluate Data-limited Freshwater Fish Resources as Food

Environmental Management - The role of aquatic resources to food security is both promising and constrained since the global seafood consumption is increasing while marine fisheries approach the...     

Oil spill cleanup cost estimation—Developing a mathematical model for marine environment

The field of oil spill cost modelling is not as well explored as desirable. Generally speaking, the existing models have either low accuracy, in that their predictions are far from the real cost, or low applicability, in that they are only valid under very specific conditions; such as in one particular country. This work strives to construct a model that is functional in a global scope and still possess a high level of accuracy. The resulting attempt is in many ways superior to the publicly available competitors, not only because of its predictive capacity but also because the model is quick to use, and its input variables should be readily available to any informed user. The model is more accurate comparing with similar available models. However, further study is needed to modify it to obtain more realistic results.     

Lost benefits and carbon uptake by protection of Indian plantations

There is a range of problems in assessing how protection of a specific forest to Reduce Emissions from Deforestation and forest Degradation (REDD+) affect global emissions of greenhouse gases. This paper shows how knowledge and information about the biophysical characteristics of forests can be combined with theories of forest management and economic behaviour to derive the impacts on global emissions of REDD+. A modelling experiment from India, where 10% of the forest plantations in eight different regions are protected, shows that the biophysical characteristics of forests are decisive for the global impacts on emissions. In regions with slow-growing forests, agents in the non-protected forests are able to increase their output significantly to fill the demand from the protected forests. This opportunity is strictly limited in regions with fast-growing forests. Therefore, prices increase far more in regions with fast-growing forests than in slow-growing forests. Over time, the markets for Indian forestry products contribute to reduce the resulting price differences across regions. When the carbon uptake from protected forests approaches zero, the leakage of emissions to other Indian forests is between 20 and 40%. Only a small part of this is international leakage. Combining different models also helps to identify knowledge gaps, and to distinguish gaps that potentially may be filled with data and new knowledge, and gaps due to different angling of modelling biophysical processes and modelling of economic behaviour.     

Towards a climate change adaptation strategy for coffee communities and ecosystems in the Sierra Madre de Chiapas, Mexico

The mountain chain of the Sierra Madre de Chiapas in southern Mexico is globally significant for its biodiversity and is one of the most important coffee production areas of Mexico. It provides water for several municipalities and its biosphere reserves are important tourist attractions. Much of the forest cover outside the core protected areas is in fact coffee grown under traditional forest shade. Unless this (agro)forest cover can be sustained, the biodiversity of the Sierra Madre and the environmental services it provides are at risk. We analyzed the threats to livelihoods and environment from climate change through crop suitability modeling based on downscaled climate scenarios for the period 2040 to 2069 (referred to as 2050s) and developed adaptation options through an expert workshop. Significant areas of forest and occasionally coffee are destroyed every year by wildfires, and this problem is bound to increase in a hotter and drier future climate. Widespread landslides and inundations, including on coffee farms, have recently been caused by hurricanes whose intensity is predicted to increase. A hotter climate with more irregular rainfall will be less favorable to the production of quality coffee and lower profitability may compel farmers to abandon shade coffee and expand other land uses of less biodiversity value, probably at the expense of forest. A comprehensive strategy to sustain the biodiversity, ecosystem services and livelihoods of the Sierra Madre in the face of climate change should include the promotion of biodiversity friendly coffee growing and processing practices including complex shade which can offer some hurricane protection and product diversification; payments for forest conservation and restoration from existing government programs complemented by private initiatives; diversification of income sources to mitigate risks associated with unstable environmental conditions and coffee markets; integrated fire management; development of markets that reward sustainable land use practices and forest conservation; crop insurance programs that are accessible to smallholders; and the strengthening of local capacity for adaptive resource management.     

Age and lost working days as a result of an occupational accident: A study in a shiftwork rotation system

The present work analyzed the relationship of age and tenure with occupational accident severity of 156 male shiftworkers at an industrial plant. Based on past research, negative binomial regression analyses were performed to examine the association of age and tenure with the lost working days due to medically certified occupational accidents (LWDI). The main effects of age and tenure and the contribution of age by tenure interaction and age squared terms were examined. Regression results indicated a significant association of age by tenure interaction with LWDI. However, this relationship was non-significant when considering an age squared term in the regression equation, suggesting a non-linear association of age with LWDI. The findings are discussed in regard to the specific preventative measures of occupational accidents in shiftwork systems that could be addressed to different age groups.     

Statistical accuracy for estimations of large wood blockage in a reservoir environment

Environmental Fluid Mechanics - The blockage of weirs or bridges by in-stream wood can reduce the flood discharge capacity, leading to hazardous situations. To assess the related risk, blocking...     

Einsatz der Hasse-Diagrammtechnik zur vergleichenden Datenanalyse von Biomarkerantworten und ?kotoxikologischen Tests

Die ?kotoxikologie mu? sich mit biologischen Systemen und ihren Antworten auf schadstoffinduzierten Stre? auseinandersetzen. Die hierzu verwendete experimentelle Technik eilt dabei den M?glichkeiten dynamischer, proze?orientierter mathematischer Modellierung weit voraus. In dieser methodisch orientierten Arbeit werden Techniken aus der mathematischen Disziplin der Verbandstheorie vorgestellt, die eine Datenanalyse unter den Aspekten vergleichender Bewertung erlauben. Wichtige Ergebnisse sind dabei