Using air quality modeling to study source–receptor relationships between nitrogen oxides emissions and ozone exposures over the United States

Human exposure to ambient ozone (O₃) has been linked to a variety of adverse health effects. The ozone level at a location is contributed by local production, regional transport, and background ozone. This study combines detailed emission inventory, air quality modeling, and census data to investigate the source–receptor relationships between nitrogen oxides (NO_x) emissions and population exposure to ambient O₃ in 48 states over the continental United States. By removing NO_x emissions from each state one at a time, we calculate the change in O₃ exposures by examining the difference between the base and the sensitivity simulations. Based on the 49 simulations, we construct state-level and census region-level source–receptor matrices describing the relationships among these states/regions. We find that, for 43 receptor states, cumulative NO_x emissions from upwind states contribute more to O₃ exposures than the state's own emissions. In-state emissions are responsible for less than 15% of O₃ exposures in 90% of U.S. states. A state's NO_x emissions can influence 2 to 40 downwind states by at least a 0.1 ppbv change in population-averaged O₃ exposure. The results suggest that the U.S. generally needs a regional strategy to effectively reduce O₃ exposures. But the current regional emission control program in the U.S. is a cap-and-trade program that assumes the marginal damage of every ton of NO_x is equal. In this study, the average O₃ exposures caused by one ton of NO_x emissions ranges from ? 2.0 to 2.3 ppm-people-hours depending on the state. The actual damage caused by one ton of NO_x emissions varies considerably over space.     

Endogenous technical change and environmental regulation

A model of environmental regulation under uncertainty is developed to compare the effect of price versus quantity rules upon technical change. Quantity rules tend to encourage more efficient levels of technical change.     

The economic impact of sea-level rise on nonmarket lands in Singapore

Sea-level rise, as a result of climate change, will likely inflict considerable economic consequences on coastal regions, particularly low-lying island states like Singapore. Although the literature has addressed the vulnerability of developed coastal lands, this is the first economic study to address nonmarket lands, such as beaches, marshes and mangrove estuaries. This travel cost and contingent valuation study reveals that consumers in Singapore attach considerable value to beaches. The contingent valuation study also attached high values to marshes and mangroves but this result was not supported by the travel cost study. Although protecting nonmarket land uses from sea-level rise is expensive, the study shows that at least highly valued resources, such as Singapore's popular beaches, should be protected.     

Comparing impacts across climate models

In this paper we combine a climate-forecasting model, COSMIC, with a global impact model, GIM, to compare the market impacts of climate change projected by 14 general circulation models. Given a specific date (2100), carbon dioxide concentration (612 ppmv), and global temperature sensitivity (2.5°C), predicted impacts to economies are calculated using climate-response functions from Experimental and Cross-sectional evidence. The Cross-sectional impact model predicts small global benefits across all climate models, whereas the Experimental impact model predicts a range from small benefits to small damages. High-latitude countries are less sensitive to temperature increases than low-latitude countries because they are currently cool. Uniform global temperature changes overestimate global damages because they underestimate the benefits in polar regions and overestimate the damages in tropical regions compared to the GCM predictions.     

The Climate Impacts of Sulfate Aerosols

Sulfate aerosols (SO₄) from anthropogenic emissions of sulfur dioxide (SO₂) generally have a cooling effect. However, if SO₂ emissions fall over time, accounting for sulfate aerosols will increase the predicted warming from greenhouse gases. This paper integrates the four marker emission scenarios for CO₂ and SO₄ from the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES), the UIUC general circulation model (GCM), and a country-specific impact model (GIM) to calculate the impacts of sulfate aerosols. By 2100, lower SO₂ emissions slightly increase warming in the temperate and polar regions causing small damages in the former and small benefits in the latter. If SO₂ emissions are also lower in tropical regions, temperatures will rise causing small damages there as well. However, if SO₂ emissions rise in tropical regions, temperatures will fall leading to small benefits. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

珊瑚礁估价--大堡礁的旅行费用分析

本研究项目研究了到大堡礁的国内和国际旅游状况以便估计该礁每年给200万游客提供的利益.报告探索了函数形式以及测量国际旅游的旅行费用的问题比较了实际成本、距离及最低价票价.大堡礁每年娱乐效益的最佳估计值为7～16亿美元.给澳大利亚带来的国内价值约为4亿美元,但给较偏远国家带来的估计价值取决于旅行费用的定义和函数形式.本研究报告确实地证明,保护高质量的珊瑚礁能创造非常高的效益.     

Comparing Forecasts of the Global Impacts of Climate Change

This paper utilizes the predictions ofseveral Atmosphere-Ocean GeneralCirculation Models and the Global ImpactModel to create forecasts of the globalmarket impacts from climate change. Theforecasts of market impacts in 2100 varyconsiderably depending on climate scenariosand climate impact sensitivity. The modelsdo concur that tropical nations will behurt, temperate nations will be barelyaffected, and high latitude nations willbenefit. Although the size of theseeffects varies a great deal across models,the beneficial and harmful effects areoffsetting, so that the net impact on theglobe is relatively small in almost alloutcomes. Looking only at market impacts,the forecasts suggest that while the globalnet benefits of abatement are small, thedistribution of damages suggests a largeequity problem that could be addressedthrough a compensation program. The largeuncertainty surrounding these forecastsfurther suggests that continued monitoringof both the climate and impacts isworthwhile.     

Valuing coral reefs: a travel cost analysis of the Great Barrier Reef

This study examines domestic and international travel to the Great Barrier Reef in order to estimate the benefits the reef provides to the 2 million visitors each year. The study explores the problems of functional form and of measuring travel cost for international visits: comparing actual costs, distance, and lowest price fares. The best estimates of the annual recreational benefits of the Great Barrier Reef range between USD 700 million to 1.6 billion. The domestic value to Australia is about USD 400 million, but the estimated value to more distant countries depends on the definition of travel cost and the functional form. The study conclusively demonstrates that there are very high benefits associated with protecting high quality coral reefs.