Foresight science in conservation: Tools,barriers, and mainstreaming opportunities

Foresight science is a systematic approach to generate future predictions for planning and management by drawing upon analytical and predictive tools to understand the past and present, while providing insights about the future. To illustrate the application of foresight science in conservation, we present three case studies: identification of emerging risks to conservation, conservation of at-risk species, and aid in the development of management strategies for multiple stressors. We highlight barriers to mainstreaming foresight science in conservation including knowledge accessibility/organization, communication across diverse stakeholders/decision makers, and organizational capacity. Finally, we investigate opportunities for mainstreaming foresight science including continued advocacy to showcase its application, incorporating emerging technologies (i.e., artificial intelligence) to increase capacity/decrease costs, and increasing education/training in foresight science via specialized courses and curricula for trainees and practicing professionals. We argue that failure to mainstream foresight science will hinder the ability to achieve future conservation objectives in the Anthropocene.Supplementary InformationThe online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s13280-022-01786-0.     

Robust optimization evaluation of reliance on locally produced foods

While local food production may be beneficial in terms of developing the local economy and reducing greenhouse gases from transportation, sustainability strategies focused on local food production may generate their own risks due to yield variability. We have developed a robust optimization (RO) model to determine the minimum amount of land (cropland and pasture) required to grow food items that would satisfy a local population’s (accounting for gender and age) calorie and nutrient needs. This model has been applied to Boone County, Missouri, which has a population of approximately 170,000. Boone County is 1790 km², with 16% of the land defined as cropland and 30% defined as pasture. The model includes 27 nutrients from 17 potential foods that could be produced: six fruits and vegetables, five grains and six animal-sourced foods. Yield estimates are based on the predominate methods of agriculture in the USA. We first run our model assuming no variability, using the midpoint yield estimates. Then, to quantify uncertainty in yield for different food types, we use historical yield data over 10 years to estimate this variability and run our RO model under these variability estimates. We compare the two model results to illustrate the impact of data uncertainty on meeting sustainable local food for communities. Solutions suggest that nutrition needs can be met for the Boone County population within the land area defined.     

Molecular composition of recycled organic wastes,as determined by solid-state 13C NMR and elemental analyses

Using solid state ¹³C NMR data and elemental composition in a molecular mixing model, we estimated the molecular components of the organic matter in 16 recycled organic (RO) wastes representative of the major materials generated in the Sydney basin area. Close correspondence was found between the measured NMR signal intensities and those predicted by the model for all RO wastes except for poultry manure char. Molecular nature of the organic matter differed widely between the RO wastes. As a proportion of organic C, carbohydrate C ranged from 0.07 to 0.63, protein C from <0.01 to 0.66, lignin C from <0.01 to 0.31, aliphatic C from 0.09 to 0.73, carbonyl C from 0.02 to 0.23, and char C from 0 to 0.45. This method is considered preferable to techniques involving imprecise extraction methods for RO wastes. Molecular composition data has great potential as a predictor of RO waste soil carbon and nutrient outcomes.     

Accelerated carbonation of different size fractions of bottom ash from RDF incineration

This paper investigates the effects of accelerated carbonation on the characteristics of bottom ash from refuse derived fuel (RDF) incineration, in terms of CO₂ uptake, heavy metal leaching and mineralogy of different particle size fractions. Accelerated aqueous carbonation batch experiments were performed to assess the influence of operating parameters (temperature, CO₂ pressure and L/S ratio) on reaction kinetics. Pressure was found to be the most relevant parameter affecting the carbonation yield. This was also found to be largely dependent on the specific BA fraction treated, with CO₂ uptakes ranging from ～4% for the coarse fractions to ～14% for the finest one. Carbonation affected both the mineralogical characteristics of bottom ash, with the appearance of neo-formation minerals, and the leaching behaviour of the material, which was found to be mainly related to the change upon carbonation in the natural pH of the ash.     

Investigations of biological processes in Austrian MBT plants

Mechanical biological treatment (MBT) of municipal solid waste (MSW) has become an important technology in waste management during the last decade. The paper compiles investigations of mechanical biological processes in Austrian MBT plants. Samples from all plants representing different stages of degradation were included in this study. The range of the relevant parameters characterizing the materials and their behavior, e.g. total organic carbon, total nitrogen, respiration activity and gas generation sum, was determined. The evolution of total carbon and nitrogen containing compounds was compared and related to process operation. The respiration activity decreases in most of the plants by about 90% of the initial values whereas the ammonium release is still ongoing at the end of the biological treatment. If the biogenic waste fraction is not separated, it favors humification in MBT materials that is not observed to such extent in MSW. The amount of organic carbon is about 15% dry matter at the end of the biological treatment.     

Influence of flue gas cleaning system on the energetic efficiency and on the economic performance of a WTE plant

Gas cleaning systems of MSW (Municipal Solid Waste) incinerators are characterised by the process employed to remove acid gases. The commonly used technologies for acid gas removal are: (1) dry treatment with Ca(OH)₂ or (2) with NaHCO₃, (3) semi-dry process with Ca(OH)₂ and (4) wet scrubbing. In some recent plants beside a wet cleaning system, a dry neutralization with Ca(OH)₂ is used. The goal is to reduce the amount of acid to be removed in the wet treatment and the liquid effluents produced. The influence of these different technologies on the electrical efficiency was investigated by a detailed simulation of a WTE (Waste To Energy) plant with a capacity of about 100,000 t/y of MSW. The effects of the different gas cleaning systems on electrical efficiency were significant. The difference of efficiency between the most advantageous technology, which is dry treatment with NaHCO₃, and the least advantageous technology which is semi-dry treatment, is about 0.8%. A simple economic analysis showed that the few advantages of dry technologies can often be lost if the costs of chemicals and the disposal of products are considered.     

Ultraviolet absorption in transparent zooplankton and its implications for depth distribution and visual predation

The use of transparency as camouflage in the epipelagic realm is complicated by the presence of ultraviolet radiation, because the presence of UV-protective pigments decreases UV transparency and may reveal transparent zooplankton to predators and prey with UV vision. During July 1999, September 1999, and June 2000, transparency measurements (from 280 to 500 nm) were made on living specimens of 15 epipelagic (collection depth: 0–20 m, average: 11 ± 1 m) and 19 mesopelagic (collection depth: 150–790 m, average: 370 ± 40 m) species of transparent zooplankton from Oceanographer Canyon and Wilkinson Basin in the Northwest Atlantic Ocean. In addition, measurements of downwelling irradiance (from 330 to 500 nm) versus depth were made. The tissues from epipelagic zooplankton had lower UV transparency than those from mesopelagic zooplankton, while the average visible transparency (at 480 nm) of the two groups was not significantly different. Percent transparency was positively correlated with wavelength over most of the measured range, with a rapid decrease below a certain cutoff wavelength. In mesopelagic tissues, the cutoff wavelength was generally 300 nm. In epipelagic tissues, the cutoff wavelength was between 300 and 400 nm. Twelve out of 19 epipelagic tissues had transparencies at 320 nm that were half or less than their 480 nm transparency values, versus only 4 out of 21 mesopelagic tissues. The effects of UV absorption on UV visibility and minimum attainable depth were modeled using contrast theory and the physics of light attenuation. Because UV absorption was generally significantly greater in the UVB than in the UVA spectrum (where UV vision occurs), and because the highest UV absorption was often found in less transparent individuals, its modeled effects on visibility were slight compared to its effects on minimum attainable depth. Received: 14 April 2000 / Accepted: 16 November 2000     

Trail and recruitment pheromones in Camponotus socius (Hymenoptera: Formicidae)

Summary. Worker ants of Camponotus socius employ multicomponent signals during group recruitment to food sources and nest emigrations. The chemical signals consist of trail orientation pheromones that originate from the hindgut. Two components that elicit trail orientation behavior were identified: (2S,4R,5S)-2,4-dimethyl-5-hexanolide and 2,3-dihydro-3,5-dihydroxy-6-methylpyran-4-one. Although both compounds release trail following behavior, in choice tests the former compound is preferred significantly. The major recruitment signal appears to be formic acid discharged from the poison gland. Compounds identified in the Dufour gland secretions do not seem to be involved in the recruitment process.     

Utilization of molasses spentwash for production of bioplastics by waste activated sludge

Present study describes the treatment of molasses spentwash and its use as a potential low cost substrate for production of biopolymer polyhydroxybutyrate (PHB) by waste activated sludge. Fluorescence microscopy revealed the presence of PHB granules in sludge biomass which was further confirmed by fourier transform-infra-red spectroscopy (FT-IR) and ¹³C nuclear magnetic resonance (NMR). The processing of molasses spentwash was carried out for attaining different ratios of carbon and nitrogen (C:N). Highest chemical oxygen demand (COD) removal and PHB accumulation of 60% and 31% respectively was achieved with raw molasses spentwash containing inorganic nitrogen (C:N ratio = 28) followed by COD removal of 52% and PHB accumulation of 28% for filtered molasses containing inorganic nitrogen (C:N ratio = 29). PHB production yield (Y_p/s) was highest (0.184 g g^?1 COD consumed) for deproteinized spentwash supplemented with nitrogen. In contrast, the substrate consumption and product formation were higher in case of raw spentwash. Though COD removal was lowest from deproteinized spentwash, evaluation of kinetic parameters suggested higher rates of conversion of available carbon to biomass and PHB. Thus the process provided dual benefit of conversion of two wastes viz. waste activated sludge and molasses spentwash into value-added product-PHB.