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Rapid assessments are one of the standard informational tools in humanitarian response and are supposed to contribute to rational decision-making.(1) The extent to which the assessment organisation itself behaves rationally, however, is an open question. This can be evaluated against multiple criteria, such as the cost and value of the information it collects and its ability to adapt flexibly design or samples when the survey environment changes unforeseeably. An unusual data constellation from two concurrent recent (2003-04) rapid assessments in northern Iraq permits us to model part of the actual assessment behaviour in terms of geographical, community and prior substantive information attributes. The model correctly predicts the decisions, in 79 per cent of the 2,425 local communities in focus, that data collector teams in the Emergency Mine Action Survey made to visit or not to visit. The analysis demonstrates variably rational behaviour under conditions of insecurity, repeated regrouping and incomplete sampling frames. A pronounced bias towards very small rural settlements is irrational for the overall results, but may be a rational strategy of individual survey workers seeking to prolong their employment. Implications for future assessments are sketched in the areas of tools for urban surveys, greater adaptability, including early feedback from users, and sensibility to value-of-information concepts. 相似文献
3.
Cordoba Aldo Hernández Rafael Viveros-Palma Iliana Mendoza Sandra Guevara-González Ramón Gerardo Feregrino-Pérez Ana Angélica Esquivel Karen 《Environmental science and pollution research international》2021,28(28):37130-37141
Environmental Science and Pollution Research - Nowadays, the use of different nanoscale structures has been introduced to a large number of research areas. One of these is the treatment and... 相似文献
4.
Jaime E. Jiménez Aldo M. Arriagada Francisco E. Fontúrbel Patricio A. Camus M. Isidora Ávila-Thieme 《Die Naturwissenschaften》2013,100(8):779-787
Salmon farming is a widespread activity around the world, also known to promote diverse environmental effects on aquatic ecosystems. However, information regarding the impact of salmon farming on bird assemblages is notably scarce. We hypothesize that salmon farming, by providing food subsidies and physical structures to birds, will change their local community structure. To test this hypothesis, we conducted a seasonal monitoring of bird richness, abundance, and composition at paired salmon pen and control plots in two marine and two lake sites in southern Chile, from fall 2002 to summer 2004. Overall, salmon farming had no significant effects on species richness, but bird abundance was significantly and noticeably higher in salmon pens than in controls. Such aggregation was mainly accounted for by the trophic guilds of omnivores, diving piscivores, carrion eaters, and perching piscivores, but not by invertebrate feeders, herbivores, and surface feeders. Species composition was also significantly and persistently different between salmon pens and controls within each lake or marine locality. The patterns described above remained consistent across environment types and seasons indicating that salmon farming is changing the community structure of birds in both lake and marine habitats by promoting functional and aggregation responses, particularly by favoring species with broader niches. Such local patterns may thus anticipate potential threats from the ongoing expansion of the salmon industry to neighboring areas in Chile, resulting in regional changes of bird communities, toward a less diverse one and dominated by opportunistic, common, and generalist species such as gulls, vultures, and cormorants. 相似文献
5.
Marco Basile Antonio Romano Andrea Costa Mario Posillico Daniele Scinti Roger Aldo Crisci Ranieri Raimondi Tiziana Altea Vittorio Garfì Giovanni Santopuoli Marco Marchetti Sebastiano Salvidio Bruno De Cinti Giorgio Matteucci 《Die Naturwissenschaften》2017,104(9-10):80
Many small terrestrial vertebrates exhibit limited spatial movement and are considerably exposed to changes in local environmental variables. Among such vertebrates, amphibians at present experience a dramatic decline due to their limited resilience to environmental change. Since the local survival and abundance of amphibians is intrinsically related to the availability of shelters, conservation plans need to take microhabitat requirements into account. In order to gain insight into the terrestrial ecology of the spectacled salamander Salamandrina perspicillata and to identify appropriate forest management strategies, we investigated the salamander’s seasonal variability in habitat use of trees as shelters in relation to tree features (size, buttresses, basal holes) and environmental variables in a beech forest in Italy. We used the occupancy approach to assess tree suitability on a non-conventional spatial scale. Our approach provides fine-grained parameters of microhabitat suitability and elucidates many aspects of the salamander’s terrestrial ecology. Occupancy changed with the annual life cycle and was higher in autumn than in spring, when females were found closer to the stream in the study area. Salamanders showed a seasonal pattern regarding the trees they occupied and a clear preference for trees with a larger diameter and more burrows. With respect to forest management, we suggest maintaining a suitable number of trees with a trunk diameter exceeding 30 cm. A practice of selective logging along the banks of streams could help maintain an adequate quantity of the appropriate microhabitat. Furthermore, in areas with a presence of salamanders, a good forest management plan requires leaving an adequate buffer zone around streams, which should be wider in autumn than in spring. 相似文献
6.
Canhada João C. S. Paiva Fábio F. G. Shinohara Gabriel M. M. Okimoto Fernando Hiranobe Carlos T. Teixeira Silvio R. Job Aldo E. Santos Renivaldo J. 《Journal of Material Cycles and Waste Management》2023,25(2):944-953
Journal of Material Cycles and Waste Management - Leather production is a technology that boosts the economy because of its versatility and durability. However, the wastes generated throughout the... 相似文献
7.
In Bureaucratizing the Good Samaritan , Waters (2001) argues that bureaucratic rationality distracts humanitarian agencies from the needs of the people they are supposed to assist, in favour of other values that their institutional frameworks dictate. We test his claim by investigating the response to the Pakistan 2005 earthquake. One of us (Dittemore) worked with the United Nations Joint Logistics Centre in the theatre, managing a relief cargo shipment database. The response, known as 'Operation Winter Race', was hampered by extreme logistical challenges, but ultimately succeeded in averting a second disaster resulting from cold and starvation. We use statistical models to probe whether survivor needs significantly guided decisions to deliver relief to affected communities. Needs assessments remained incomplete and incoherent. We measure needs through proxy indicators and integrate them, on a Geographic Information System (GIS) platform, with logistics and relief delivery data. We find that, despite strong logistics effects, needs orientations were significant. However, the strength of decision factors varies between commodity types (food versus clothing and shelter versus reconstruction materials) as well as over the different phases of the response. This study confirms Thomas's observation that logistics databases are rich 'repositories of data that can be analyzed to provide post-event learning' (Thomas, 2003, p. 4). This article is an invitation for others to engage in creative humanitarian data management. 相似文献
8.
This article sets out to analyse how and to what degree land use is linked to the physical characteristics of the territory
itself, and the way in which changes in land use are determined by agricultural and socio-demographic dynamics. The study
was conducted within the territorial boundaries of five municipalities surrounding Lake Trasimeno and refers to the periods
1977–2000 for land use and 1971–2001 for socio-demography data. The use of environmental, social, economic and agricultural
indicators demonstrates how a mix of various indicators are useful for monitoring the changes which took place. It also shows
the powerful influence that socio-demographic factors exert upon land use and landscape change. 相似文献
9.
Richard L. Cooley Aldo V. Vecchia 《Journal of the American Water Resources Association》1987,23(4):581-599
ABSTRACT: A method is derived to efficiently compute nonlinear confidence and prediction intervals on any function of parameters derived as output from a mathematical model of a physical system. The method is applied to the problem of obtaining confidence and prediction intervals for manually-calibrated ground-water flow models. To obtain confidence and prediction intervals resulting from uncertainties in parameters, the calibrated model and information on extreme ranges and ordering of the model parameters within one or more independent groups are required. If random errors in the dependent variable are present in addition to uncertainties in parameters, then calculation of prediction intervals also requires information on the extreme range of error expected. A simple Monte Carlo method is used to compute the quantiles necessary to establish probability levels for the confidence and prediction intervals. Application of the method to a hypothetical example showed that includsion of random errors in the dependent variable in addition to uncertainties in parameters can considerably widen the prediction intervals. 相似文献
10.