Exploring metapopulation-scale suppression alternatives for a global invader in a river network experiencing climate change

Invasive species can dramatically alter ecosystems, but eradication is difficult, and suppression is expensive once they are established. Uncertainties in the potential for expansion and impacts by an invader can lead to delayed and inadequate suppression, allowing for establishment. Metapopulation viability models can aid in planning strategies to improve responses to invaders and lessen invasive species’ impacts, which may be particularly important under climate change. We used a spatially explicit metapopulation viability model to explore suppression strategies for ecologically damaging invasive brown trout (Salmo trutta), established in the Colorado River and a tributary in Grand Canyon National Park. Our goals were to estimate the effectiveness of strategies targeting different life stages and subpopulations within a metapopulation; quantify the effectiveness of a rapid response to a new invasion relative to delaying action until establishment; and estimate whether future hydrology and temperature regimes related to climate change and reservoir management affect metapopulation viability and alter the optimal management response. Our models included scenarios targeting different life stages with spatially varying intensities of electrofishing, redd destruction, incentivized angler harvest, piscicides, and a weir. Quasi-extinction (QE) was obtainable only with metapopulation-wide suppression targeting multiple life stages. Brown trout population growth rates were most sensitive to changes in age 0 and large adult mortality. The duration of suppression needed to reach QE for a large established subpopulation was 12 years compared with 4 with a rapid response to a new invasion. Isolated subpopulations were vulnerable to suppression; however, connected tributary subpopulations enhanced metapopulation persistence by serving as climate refuges. Water shortages driving changes in reservoir storage and subsequent warming would cause brown trout declines, but metapopulation QE was achieved only through refocusing and increasing suppression. Our modeling approach improves understanding of invasive brown trout metapopulation dynamics, which could lead to more focused and effective invasive species suppression strategies and, ultimately, maintenance of populations of endemic fishes.     

Neighborhood and habitat effects on vital rates: expansion of the Barred Owl in the Oregon coast ranges

In this paper, we modify dynamic occupancy models developed for detection-nondetection data to allow for the dependence of local vital rates on neighborhood occupancy, where neighborhood is defined very flexibly. Such dependence of occupancy dynamics on the status of a relevant neighborhood is pervasive, yet frequently ignored. Our framework permits joint inference about the importance of neighborhood effects and habitat covariates in determining colonization and extinction rates. Our specific motivation is the recent expansion of the Barred Owl (Strix varia) in western Oregon, USA, over the period 1990-2010. Because the focal period was one of dramatic range expansion and local population increase, the use of models that incorporate regional occupancy (sources of colonists) as determinants of dynamic rate parameters is especially appropriate. We began our analysis of 21 years of Barred Owl presence/nondetection data in the Tyee Density Study Area (TDSA) by testing a suite of six models that varied only in the covariates included in the modeling of detection probability. We then tested whether models that used regional occupancy as a covariate for colonization and extinction outperformed models with constant or year-specific colonization or extinction rates. Finally we tested whether habitat covariates improved the AIC of our models, focusing on which habitat covariates performed best, and whether the signs of habitat effects are consistent with a priori hypotheses. We conclude that all covariates used to model detection probability lead to improved AIC, that regional occupancy influences colonization and extinction rates, and that habitat plays an important role in determining extinction and colonization rates. As occupancy increases from low levels toward equilibrium, colonization increases and extinction decreases, presumably because there are more and more dispersing juveniles. While both rates are affected, colonization increases more than extinction decreases. Colonization is higher and extinction is lower in survey polygons with more riparian forest. The effects of riparian forest on extinction rates are greater than on colonization rates. Model results have implications for management of the invading Barred Owl, both through habitat alteration and removal.     

The first world conservation lecture

Summary This, The First World Conservation Lecture, was presented at the Royal Institution, London, UK, on 12 March 1981. The Lecture celebrated the 20th anniversary of the World Wildlife Fund, and the first anniversary of the World Conservation Strategy. The Lecture was organized by the World Wildlife Fund, UK.Published with the kind permission of the World Wildlife Fund, UK.Edward Max Nicholson, CB, CVO, Commandeur (Netherlands), Order of the Golden Ark, holds honorary doctorates from the University of Aberdeen, and The Royal College of Art London. He was educated at the University of Oxford, and was a member of the University's expeditions to Greenland (1928) and to British Guiana (1929). He was General Secretary (until 1940), later Chairman of PEP (Political and Economic Planning): now Vice-President of its successor body, the Policy Studies Institute. From 1945 to 1952 he was Secretary of the Office of the Lord President of the Council, then Deputy Prime Minister of the United Kingdom. He was member of the Advisory Council on Scientific Policy from 1948–1964. In 1952 he was leader of the joint UN/FAO Development Team in Baluchistan. Charter Member from 1949, and Director-General (1952–1966) of the Nature Conservancy, London, UK. From 1963 to 1974 he was Convenor of the Conservation Section of the International Council of Scientific Unions' International Biological Programme. President of the IUCN Technical Meeting in Edinburgh in 1956, concerned with rehabilitation of areas biologically devastated by human disturbance, and relation of ecology to landscape planning. Member, Panel on Landscape Action Program, The White House Conference (USA) on Natural Beauty (1965). Secretary, HRH The Duke of Edinburgh's Study Conference on The Countryside in 1970 (1963 and 1965). Council and Board Member of IIED. Godman-Salvin Medallist British Ornithologist Unions. Phillips Medallist and Member of Honour IUCN, Geoffroy St. Hilaire Gold Medal, Société Nationale de Protection de Nature de France, Premio Europeo Cortina-Ulisse (1971), Europa Preis für Landespflege (1972), Hon Member of World Wildlife Fund, Chairman Ecological Parks Trust, President RSPB, 1980. Principal Consultant and Chairman of Land Use Consultants Ltd (London) since 1966. Author of many books,Birds and Men (1951);Britain's Nature Reserves (1958),The System (1967);The Environmental Revolution (1970).