Famine forecasting; Prices and peasant behaviour in Northern Ethiopia

This paper, completed in January 1984, begins by briefly outlining the contrasting views of price behaviour during the last Ethiopian famine (1972–1974) put forward by Seaman and Holt (1980) and Sen (1981). A hypothesis is developed to account for peasant behaviour and price responses under developing famine conditions. This is then tested with data recently made available. The paper concludes by summarizing the findings and their implications for famine forecasting, and argues that famine conditions in Northern Ethiopia are likely to worsen during 1984.     

青岛理工大学安全工程专业实验室建设探讨

安全工程专业的学科建设离不开安全实验室的建设,就青岛理工大学的安全工程专业实验室建设进行了探讨.从实验室建设的重要地位入手,结合安全工程的专业课程设置情况,提出了安全工程实验室应设置的实验内容.     

Reorienting Systematic Conservation Assessment for Effective Conservation Planning

Abstract: Systematic conservation assessment (an information‐gathering and prioritization process used to select the spatial foci of conservation initiatives) is often considered vital to conservation‐planning efforts, yet published assessments have rarely resulted in conservation action. Conservation assessments may lead more directly to effective conservation action if they are reoriented to inform conservation decisions. Toward this goal, we evaluated the relative priority for conservation of 7 sites proposed for the first forest reserves in the Union of the Comoros, an area with high levels of endemism and rapidly changing land uses in the western Indian Ocean. Through the analysis of 30 indicator variables measured at forest sites and nearby villages, we assessed 3 prioritization criteria at each site: conservation value, threat to loss of biological diversity from human activity, and feasibility of reserve establishment. Our results indicated 2 sites, Yiméré and Hassera‐Ndrengé, were priorities for conservation action. Our approach also informed the development of an implementation strategy and enabled an evaluation of previously unexplored relations among prioritization criteria. Our experience suggests that steps taken to ensure the closer involvement of practitioners, include a broader range of social data, encourage stakeholder participation, and consider the feasibility of conservation action can improve the relevance of assessments for conservation planning, strengthen the scientific basis for conservation decisions, and result in a more realistic evaluation of conservation alternatives.     

AHP-SWOT法在城市圈建设中耕地保护策略分析中的应用——以湖北赤壁为例

在实地调研湖北赤壁的基础上,探讨AHP-SWOT法在城市圈建设过程中的耕地保护策略分析中的应用.结果表明,耕地异地占补平衡是主要优势,耕地数量持续减少是主要劣势,新一轮土地利用总体规划是主要机遇,城市圈建设占用耕地是主要威胁,建议赤壁市在城市圈建设过程中应发挥耕地异地占补平衡优势,回避城市圈建设占用耕地的威胁.     

Enhanced stability of hydrogen peroxide in the presence of subsurface solids

The stabilization of hydrogen peroxide was investigated as a basis for enhancing its downgradient transport and contact with contaminants during catalyzed H(2)O(2) propagations (CHP) in situ chemical oxidation (ISCO). Stabilization of hydrogen peroxide was investigated in slurries containing four characterized subsurface solids using phytate, citrate, and malonate as stabilizing agents after screening ten potential stabilizers. The extent of hydrogen peroxide stabilization and the most effective stabilizer were solid-specific; however, phytate was usually the most effective stabilizer, increasing the hydrogen peroxide half-life to as much as 50 times. The degree of stabilization was nearly as effective at 10 mM concentrations as at 250 mM or 1 M concentrations. The effect of stabilization on relative rates of hydroxyl radical activity varied between the subsurface solids, but citrate and malonate generally had a greater positive effect than phytate. The effect of phytate, citrate, and malonate on the relative rates of superoxide generation was minimal to somewhat negative, depending on the solid. The results of this research demonstrate that the stabilizers phytate, citrate, and malonate can significantly increase the half-life of hydrogen peroxide in the presence of subsurface solids during CHP reactions while maintaining a significant portion of the reactive oxygen species activity. Use of these stabilizers in the field will likely improve the delivery of hydrogen peroxide and downgradient treatment during CHP ISCO.     

Resource scarcity,energy use and environmental impact: A case study of the New Bedford,Massachusetts, USA,fisheries

The commercial fishing fleet in New Bedford, Massachusetts, USA, harvests seafood on George’s Bank, home of one of the nation’s most productive fisheries. We calculated the energy return on investment (EROI) and carbon intensity of protein harvest in the New Bedford fisheries from 1968 to 1988. EROI is the ratio of the energy content of the edible fish protein harvested to the quantity of fossil fuel energy used directly in the harvesting process. Carbon intensity is the quantity of carbon dioxide (CO₂) released (from the burning of fossil fuels) per calorie of edible fish protein harvested. The results show that the EROI of protein harvest declined from 0.18 to 0.028 from 1968 to 1988, indicating that the energy used to harvest seafood increased from about 6 to 36 kcal of fuel for each kilocalorie of protein harvested. The quantity of CO₂ released per calorie of edible fish protein is a linear function of energy use and therefore increased in a similar manner. During this period there was a large increase in fishing effort (caused by the increase in the real price of seafood products, favorable tax treatment for new vessel construction, and low interest loans from the government), and a decline in several important species of fish. The results suggest that fishing pressure could be managed effectively by the regulation of fuel use by the fleet. Despite the increase in the price of many seafood products, fishermen absorbed many of the costs of increasing scarcity in the form of longer working hours and fewer men per vessel.     

The economics of sequential choice applied to quasi-option value

This paper develops a general model that can be used to determine the value of sequential forecasts. The model is used (1) to examine the interacting effects of strategies for coping with environmental uncertainty, and (2) to explore the relationship between the theories of sequential choice and quasi-option value. The framework presented bridges these two schools of thought and provides a tool for evaluating one time (e.g., climate change) or repetitive (e.g., pollution) forecasts of environmental damage.     

What Price Cheap Food?

This paper is the report of a meetingthat gathered many of the UK's most senioranimal scientists with representatives of thefarming industry, consumer groups, animalwelfare groups, and environmentalists. Therewas strong consensus that the current economicstructure of agriculture cannot adequatelyaddress major issues of concern to society:farm incomes, food security and safety, theneeds of developing countries, animal welfare,and the environment. This economic structure isbased primarily on competition betweenproducers and between retailers, driving foodprices down, combined with externalization ofmany costs. These issues must be addressed by acombination of legislation, restructuring ofthe market, and use of public funds. Themeeting included workshops that made otherrecommendations for research and education. Themost urgent requirement is recognition thatchange is needed and development of a visionfor what that change must achieve.