在波罗的海不同的气候条件下模拟的海面温度和热通量

本文使用由不同的全球模拟所产生的区域性耦合海洋-大气模型,通过数值模型试验探讨了波罗的海气候未来可能的物理状况.将一些情景以及近来的一些气候模拟情况作了比较,以估计气候变化.海面温度总体平均明显地增高2.9℃.平均年平均增温的水平模式主要可由冰盖的减少解释.由大气向波罗的海的热输送表现出季节性变化周期秋季热损失减少,春季热吸收增加,夏季热吸收减少.年际间海面温度的变化一般是在增加.这与北部一些中平滑的频率分布有关.全部热收支表示出海面太阳辐射在增加,而太阳辐射增加由热通量其他组成成分的变化所平衡.     

Can we infer avalanche–climate relations using tree-ring data? Case studies in the French Alps

Dendrogeomorphology is a powerful tool to determine past avalanche activity, but whether or not the obtained annually resolved chronologies are sufficiently detailed to infer avalanche–climate relationships (in terms of temporal resolution) remains an open question. In this work, avalanche activity is reconstructed in five paths of the French Alps and crossed with a set of snow and weather variables covering the period 1959–2009 on a monthly and annual (winter) basis. The variables which best explain avalanche activity are highlighted with an original variable selection procedure implemented within a logistic regression framework. The same approach is used for historical chronologies available for the same paths, as well as for the composite tree-ring/historical chronologies. Results suggest that dendrogeomorphic time series allow capturing the relations between snow or climate and avalanche occurrences to a certain extent. Weak links exist with annually resolved snow and weather variables and the different avalanche chronologies. On the contrary, clear statistical relations exist between these and monthly resolved snow and weather variables. In detail, tree rings seem to preferentially record avalanches triggered during cold winter storms with heavy precipitation. Conversely, historical avalanche data seem to contain a majority of events that were released later in the season and during episodes of strong positive temperature anomalies.     

Credibility and advocacy in conservation science

Conservation policy sits at the nexus of natural science and politics. On the one hand, conservation scientists strive to maintain scientific credibility by emphasizing that their research findings are the result of disinterested observations of reality. On the other hand, conservation scientists are committed to conservation even if they do not advocate a particular policy. The professional conservation literature offers guidance on negotiating the relationship between scientific objectivity and political advocacy without damaging conservation science's credibility. The value of this guidance, however, may be restricted by limited recognition of credibility's multidimensionality and emergent nature: it emerges through perceptions of expertise, goodwill, and trustworthiness. We used content analysis of the literature to determine how credibility is framed in conservation science as it relates to apparent contradictions between science and advocacy. Credibility typically was framed as a static entity lacking dimensionality. Authors identified expertise or trustworthiness as important, but rarely mentioned goodwill. They usually did not identify expertise, goodwill, or trustworthiness as dimensions of credibility or recognize interactions among these 3 dimensions of credibility. This oversimplification may limit the ability of conservation scientists to contribute to biodiversity conservation. Accounting for the emergent quality and multidimensionality of credibility should enable conservation scientists to advance biodiversity conservation more effectively.     

Fine-scale spatial patterns of the Tertiary relict Zelkova abelicea (Ulmaceae) indicate possible processes contributing to its persistence to climate changes

In this paper, the fine-scale spatial patterns of the Tertiary relict Zelkova abelicea (Lam.) Boiss. were studied (1) to reveal processes that contributed to its persistence to climate changes and (2) to assist future conservation planning, with the purpose of shifting the attention of conservation practitioners from patterns to processes. Results of the fine-scale spatial patterns of Z. abelicea indicate that the species tolerates disturbance and/or tracks changes resulting from disturbance in the range of its distribution through morphological and reproductive plasticity. In addition, our study indicates that Z. abelicea populations are conserved in the absence of metapopulation structure and that the species participates in plant–plant interactions through facilitation processes. Hence, the persistence of the species to climate changes seems to be more complicated and multifactorial than a linear and plain view of species survival in climate refugial areas, and therefore calls for a consideration of the processes revealed in this paper in future conservation planning.     

Time study on the uptake of four different beta-blockers in garden cress (Lepidium sativum) as a model plant

Environmental Science and Pollution Research - The aim of this study was to investigate the uptake of four beta-blockers by the model plant Lepidium sativum (garden cress) and their possible...     

Phenomenological compensation of thermally caused position and orientation errors of rotary axes

Thermal errors of machine tools are one of the major sources of inaccuracy. Therefore, the reduction of temperature induced deviations or the compensation of the resulting tool center point (TCP) errors have been of strong interest to the manufacturing industry for a couple of years. Up to now, the observation of the environment, the main spindle, the linear axes and the machine bed were in the focus of research, but with the rising demand for 5-axis machine tools and the increasing requirements regarding their accuracy, the analysis of the thermal behavior of rotary axes becomes more and more important. This paper gives an overview of corresponding thermal measurements of machine tools. The thermal behavior of rotary and swiveling axes is analyzed in detail. A simulation model and an approach for a phenomenological compensation of the TCP error are introduced and verified by measurements.     

Adaptive-filtering of trisomy 21: risk of Down syndrome depends on family size and age of previous child

The neonatal incidence rate of Down syndrome (DS) is well-known to accelerate strongly with maternal age. This non-linearity renders mere accumulation of defects at recombination during prolonged first meiotic prophase implausible as an explanation for DS rate increase with maternal age, but might be anticipated from chromosomal drive (CD) for trisomy 21. Alternatively, as there is selection against genetically disadvantaged embryos, the screening system that eliminates embryos with trisomy 21 might decay with maternal age. In this paper, we provide the first evidence for relaxed filtering stringency (RFS) to represent an adaptive maternal response that could explain accelerating DS rates with maternal age. Using historical data, we show that the proportion of aberrant live births decrease with increased family size in older mothers, that inter-birth intervals are longer before affected neonates than before normal ones, and that primiparae exhibit elevated levels of DS incidence at higher age. These findings are predicted by adaptive RFS but cannot be explained by the currently available alternative non-adaptive hypotheses, including CD. The identification of the relaxation control mechanism and therapeutic restoration of a stringent screen may have considerable medical implications.