Visualizing dynamic capabilities as adaptive capacity for municipal water governance

This study seeks to expand empirical research on how municipalities have adapted and innovated (or not) their water systems as a result of climate change. We analyze characteristics of water governance at the municipal scale in Oklahoma, USA. ArcMap 10.3 was used to build a qualitative geographic information system (GIS) based on fieldwork, including interviews and site-observations, to compare dynamic capabilities that lead to innovation in 38 cities in the state. The GIS enables visualization of our digitalized research to understand the interconnections between drivers of innovativeness—the combination of dynamic capabilities and innovation rates—and state of water resource infrastructure in place specific and regional planning contexts. In particular, the GIS takes into consideration income level, the influence of state-level water policy (Water for 2060 Act), water manager certification levels, population, dynamic capabilities, and perceptions of risk and vulnerability to water system change. Digitizing this information provides a diverging perspective on the historical lack of innovation in the public sector, as different socio-cultural, socio-economic, and socio-political contexts occur throughout Oklahoma, a state notorious for its oil centered economy and its climate change deniers. The findings suggest that innovativeness is directly related to dynamic capabilities and indirectly related to population size, income level, and the educational backgrounds of water decision-makers. The visualizations also show that some cities have surplus capacity for adaptation, while others were able to more efficiently turn capacity into water management innovations. Seeing representations of water governance success and failure in communities affords the opportunity to educate citizens and decision-makers to adapt water infrastructures to the effects of climate change, showcasing the utility of digitalization in a quest for sustainable solutions.     

A General Equilibrium Model of Ecosystem Services in a River Basin

This study builds a general equilibrium model of ecosystem services, with sectors of the economy competing for use of the environment. The model recognizes that production processes in the real world require a combination of natural and human inputs, and understanding the value of these inputs and their competing uses is necessary when considering policies of resource conservation. We demonstrate the model with a numerical example of the Mississippi‐Atchafalaya river basin, in which grain production in the upper basin causes hypoxia that causes damages to the downstream fishing industry. We show that the size of damages is dependent on both environmental and economic shocks. While the potential damages to fishing are large, most of the damage occurs from economic forces rather than a more intensive use of nitrogen fertilizers. We show that these damages are exacerbated by increases in rainfall, which will likely get worse with climate change. We discuss welfare effects from a tax on nitrogen fertilizers and investments in riparian buffers. A 3% nitrogen tax would reduce the size of the hypoxic zone by 11% at a cost of 2% of Iowa's corn output. In comparison, riparian buffers are likely to be less costly and more popular politically.     

The Superfund Remedial Action Decision Process: A Review of Fifty Records of Decision

Abstract

Although the Superfund remedial action decision process is a complex process involving a variety of technical, political, and public health issues, the primary goal of remedial action is the protection of public health. We performed an in-depth analysis of 50 post-SARA Records of Decision in order to characterize the role of risk assessment in the decision-making process and determine whether decisions are being made in an effective and environmentally protective manner. Our findings indicate that the majority of decisions to remediate Superfund sites are based on the existence of contamination per se and not on actual public health risk. Although hypothetical risk is an essential consideration, this gray area is not well-defined in the current decision-making process.

The lack of assessment of the degree of risk reduction associated with the remedial alternatives evaluated and the lack of support indicating the effectiveness of the remedial alternatives selected also constitute major weaknesses in the majority of decisions. These inadequacies undermine rationales regarding the protectiveness and cost-effectiveness of the remedial alternatives selected. The fact that objectives beyond addressing public health risk are often unclear in the decision-making process also weakens rationales for costeffectiveness.     

The influence of collection facility attributes on household collection rates of electronic waste: The case of televisions and computer monitors

In the US, household electronic waste collected for recycling is primarily by voluntary drop-off at designated collection facilities. This study examines the influence of specific collection facility attributes (recycling fees charged, number of days open, and driving distance) on the household collection rate of e-waste in the US state of Maine. Data were collected for household computer monitor and television collection for 92 municipal waste transfer facilities representing 30% of the state's population for one year. Results suggest that recycling fees are negatively correlated with the number of televisions and computer monitors collected; furthermore, the more frequently facilities were open, the more televisions and computer monitors were collected per capita. The distance from the facility had no correlation, which prompted an analysis of whether the existence of a curbside collection system in the municipality was influential. Results show a negative correlation between computer monitor and television collection and a municipality having recycling (but not e-waste) curbside collection. Based on the results of this study, policymakers may be able to increase the collection rate of household e-waste by eliminating or lowering recycling fees, expanding collection days and hours to increase convenience, and/or considering curbside collection of e-waste.     

Temporal variation in total phosphorus concentrations revealed from a multidecadal monitoring program on Big Platte Lake,Michigan

Effective water quality management depends on enactment of appropriately designed monitoring programs to reveal current and forecasted conditions. Because water quality conditions are influenced by numerous factors, commonly measured attributes such as total phosphorus (TP) can be highly temporally varying. For highly varying processes, monitoring programs should be long-term and periodic quantitative analyses are needed so that temporal trends can be distinguished from stochastic variation, which can yield insights into potential modifications to the program. Using generalized additive mixed modeling, we assessed temporal (yearly and monthly) trends and quantified other sources of variation (daily and subsampling) in TP concentrations from a multidecadal depth-specific monitoring program on Big Platte Lake, Michigan. Yearly TP concentrations decreased from the late 1980s to late 1990s before rebounding through the early 2000s. At depths of 2.29 to 13.72 m, TP concentrations have cycled around stationary points since the early 2000s, while at the surface and depths ≥?18.29 concentrations have continued declining. Summer and fall peaks in TP concentrations were observed at most depths, with the fall peak at deeper depths occurring 1 month earlier than shallower depths. Daily sampling variation (i.e., variation within a given month and year) was greatest at shallowest and deepest depths. Variation in subsamples collected from depth-specific water samples constituted a small fraction of total variation. Based on model results, cost-saving measures to consider for the monitoring program include reducing subsampling of depth-specific concentrations and reducing the number of sampling depths given observed consistencies across the program period.     

Mortality in rural locations after severe injuries from motor vehicle crashes

BackgroundMortality from traffic crashes is often higher in rural regions, and this may be attributable to decreased survival probability after severe injury.MethodsData were obtained from the National Automotive Sampling System – General Estimates System (NASS-GES) for 2002–2008. Using weighted survey logistic regression, three injury outcomes were analyzed: (a) Death overall, (b) Severe injury (incapacitating or fatal), and (c) Death, after severe injury. Models controlled for (pre-crash) person, event, and county level factors.ResultsThe sample included 883,473 motorists. Applying weights, this represented a population of 98,411,993. Only 2% of the weighted sample sustained a severe injury, and 9% of these severely injured motorists died. The probability of death overall and the probability of severe injury increased with older age, safety belt nonuse, vehicle damage, high speed, and early morning crashes . Males were less likely to be severely injured, but more likely to die if severely injured. Motorists in southern states were more likely to have severe injuries, but not more likely to die if severely injured. Motorists who crashed in very rural counties were significantly more likely to die overall, and were more likely to die if severely injured.ConclusionsMotorists with severe injury are more likely to die in rural areas, after controlling for person- and event-specific factors.     

Geologic processes influence the effects of mining on aquatic ecosystems

Geologic processes strongly influence water and sediment quality in aquatic ecosystems but rarely are geologic principles incorporated into routine biomonitoring studies. We test if elevated concentrations of metals in water and sediment are restricted to streams downstream of mines or areas that may discharge mine wastes. We surveyed 198 catchments classified as "historically mined" or "unmined," and based on mineral-deposit criteria, to determine whether water and sediment quality were influenced by naturally occurring mineralized rock, by historical mining, or by a combination of both. By accounting for different geologic sources of metals to the environment, we were able to distinguish aquatic ecosystems limited by metals derived from natural processes from those due to mining. Elevated concentrations of metals in water and sediment were not restricted to mined catchments; depauperate aquatic communities were found in unmined catchments. The type and intensity of hydrothermal alteration and the mineral deposit type were important determinants of water and sediment quality as well as the aquatic community in both mined and unmined catchments. This study distinguished the effects of different rock types and geologic sources of metals on ecosystems by incorporating basic geologic processes into reference and baseline site selection, resulting in a refined assessment. Our results indicate that biomonitoring studies should account for natural sources of metals in some geologic environments as contributors to the effect of mines on aquatic ecosystems, recognizing that in mining-impacted drainages there may have been high pre-mining background metal concentrations.     

Using Twitter to communicate conservation science from a professional conference

Scientists are increasingly using Twitter as a tool for communicating science. Twitter can promote scholarly discussion, disseminate research rapidly, and extend and diversify the scope of audiences reached. However, scientists also caution that if Twitter does not accurately convey science due to the inherent brevity of this media, misinformation could cascade quickly through social media. Data on whether Twitter effectively communicates conservation science and the types of user groups receiving these tweets are lacking. To address these knowledge gaps, we examined live tweeting as a means of communicating conservation science at the 2013 International Congress for Conservation Biology (ICCB). We quantified and compared the user groups sending and reading live tweets. We also surveyed presenters to determine their intended audiences, which we compared with the actual audiences reached through live tweeting. We also asked presenters how effectively tweets conveyed their research findings. Twitter reached 14 more professional audience categories relative to those attending and live tweeting at ICCB. However, the groups often reached through live tweeting were not the presenters’ intended audiences. Policy makers and government and non‐governmental organizations were rarely reached (0%, 4%, and 6% of audience, respectively), despite the intent of the presenters. Plenary talks were tweeted about 6.9 times more than all other oral or poster presentations combined. Over half the presenters believed the tweets about their talks were effective. Ineffective tweets were perceived as vague or missing the presenters’ main message. We recommend that presenters who want their science to be communicated accurately and broadly through Twitter should provide Twitter‐friendly summaries that incorporate relevant hashtags and usernames. Our results suggest that Twitter can be used to effectively communicate speakers’ findings to diverse audiences beyond conference walls.     

Using Multimedia Modeling to Expedite Site Characterization

GOAL, SCOPE AND BACKGROUND: This paper uses two case studies of U.S. Department of Energy nuclear weapons complex installations to illustrate the integration of expedited site characterization (ESC) and multimedia modeling in the remedial action decision making process. CONCEPTUAL SITE MODELS, MULTIMEDIA MODELS, AND EXPEDITED SITE CHARACTERIZATION: Conceptual site models outline assumptions about contaminates and the spatial/temporal distribution of potential receptors. Multimedia models simulate contaminant transport and fate through multiple environmental media, estimate potential human exposure via specific exposure pathways, and estimate the risk of cancer and non-cancer health outcomes. ESC relies on using monitoring data to quantify the key components of an initial conceptual site model that is modified iteratively using the multimedia model. CASE STUDIES: Two case studies are presented that used the ESC approach: Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL) and Pantex. LANL released radionuclides, metals, and organic compounds, into canyons surrounding the facility. The Pantex Plant has past waste management operations which included burning chemical wastes in unlined pits, burying wastes in unlined landfills, and discharging plant wastewaters into on-site surface waters. CONCLUSIONS: The case studies indicate that using multimedia models with the ESC approach can inform assessors about what, where, and how much site characterization data needs to be collected to reduce the uncertainty associated with risk assessment. Lowering the degree of uncertainty reduces the time and cost associated with assessing potential risk and increases the confidence that decision makers have in the assessments performed.     

Simulated climate adaptation in stormwater systems: evaluating the efficiency of adaptation strategies

Adaptations in infrastructure may be necessitated by changes in temperature and precipitation patterns to avoid losses and maintain expected levels of service. A roster of adaptation strategies has emerged in the climate change literature, especially with regard to timing: anticipatory, concurrent, or reactive. Significant progress has been made in studying climate change adaptation decision making that incorporates uncertainty, but less work has examined how strategies interact with existing infrastructure characteristics to influence adaptability. We use a virtual testbed of highway drainage crossings configured with a selection of actual culvert emplacements in Colorado, USA, to examine the effect of adaptation strategy and culvert characteristics on cost efficiency and service level under varying rates of climate change. A meta-model approach with multinomial regression is used to compare the value of better climate change predictions with better knowledge of existing crossing characteristics. We find that, for a distributed system of infrastructural units like culverts, knowing more about existing characteristics can improve the efficacy of adaptation strategies more than better projections of climate change. Transportation departments choosing climate adaptation strategies often lack detailed data on culverts, and gathering that data could improve the efficiency of adaptation despite climate uncertainty.