全球粮食生产的预测问题

本文讨论了全球粮食生产体系能力预测模型的研发问题，文章特别对影响粮食生产的各种因素进行了鉴定和分析，并且对它们的相对影响和可预测性进行了估计。     

资源型城市可持续发展能力的演变与调控

作为特殊的经济区，资源型城市的衰落与振兴日益成为社会关注的热点。本文从分析资源型城市可持续发展能力入手，论述了资源型城市发展能力的成长阶段及演变特征，提出了资源城市可持续发展能力调控的模式和途径。     

Analysis of Environmental and Socio-economic Determinants Affecting Population Longevity Level at County Level in China

INTRODUCTIONIn recent thirty years, due to the decreasing fertility andincreasing life expectancy, China's population is aging ata very rapid pace and the elderly population size is keepingon growing. During the dramatic aging progress, the oldestold group in China is catching our eyes. More and moreold people of China are becoming the oldest old. Theextremely old population (aged 80 and above) is increasingat 5.1% annually, while the old population above 65 isincreasing at 2.9%, and the…     

A Marine Pollution Study of Northeast Coastal Water Off Taiwan Island

The coastal water of northeast Taiwan island, called 'Yin-Yang Hai' for its distinct yellow colour compared with blue offshore water, was investigated from 1989 to 1990 by the authors. Biological study showed the dominant species of plankton to be Copepoda, Cladocera, planktonic eggs and Diatoma. Dominant species of benthos were young crabs, Amphipoda and Annelida, with Amphipoda usually occurring in heavily polluted areas. Heavy metal data showed that the concentration of copper was high. the copper and iron concentration in algae of the intertidal zone was also high. the concentrations of iron and copper in inshore water were also higher than in offshore water. By comparison of the pH and salinity distribution of this area, we conclude that this coastal water has been polluted by acid waste water from coastal industry. the suspended solids concentration in sea water is high. Flocculation occurring at the boundary of fresh and saline water might be a reason for the distinct yellow colour of the water of this area. Further study is required.     

基于洪涝风险分析的纽约市城市绿地规划设计及其对中国的启示

1968年美国开始推行洪涝保险计划,不断完善对洪涝风险的研究,并逐步形成了一套相对完善的洪泛区管理体系,而洪涝风险分析在洪涝保险、城市规划、土地开发、应急管理等领域广泛应用。纽约市在经历了多次飓风侵害,尤其是2012年飓风桑迪（Sandy）之后,意识到城市绿地在极端暴雨事件时对雨洪调蓄的重要作用,经过持续的研究实践,提出了基于洪涝风险分析的城市绿地规划设计要求。基于总结美国纽约市在飓风桑迪影响下对洪涝风险图的调整,及其对城市绿地规划设计相关要求,提出其对我国洪涝风险管控及城市绿地规划设计的启示。     

Effect of NOx and SO2 on the photooxidation of methylglyoxal: Implications in secondary aerosol formation

Methylglyoxal(CH_3COCHO,MG),which is one of the most abundant α-dicarbonyl compounds in the atmosphere,has been reported as a major source of secondary organic aerosol(SOA).In this work,the reaction of MG with hydroxyl radicals was studied in a 500 L smog chamber at(293±3) K,atmospheric pressure,(18±2)% relative humidity,and under different NOx and SO_2.Particle size distribution was measured by using a scanning mobility particle sizer(SMPS) and the results showed that the addition of SO_2 can promote SOA formation,while different NOx concentrations have different influences on SOA production.High NOx suppressed the SOA formation,whereas the particle mass concentration,particle number concentration and particle geometric mean diameter increased with the increasing NOx concentration at low NOx concentration in the presence of SO_2.In addition,the products of the OH-initiated oxidation of MG and the functional groups of the particle phase in the MG/OH/SO_2 and MG/OH/NOx/SO_2 reaction systems were detected by gas chromatography mass spectrometry(GC-MS) and attenuated total reflection fourier transformed infrared spectroscopy(ATR-FTIR) analysis.Two products,glyoxylic acid and oxalic acid,were detected by GC-MS.The mechanism of the reaction of MG and OH radicals that follows two main pathways,H atom abstraction and hydration,is proposed.Evidence is provided for the formation of organic nitrates and organic sulfate in particle phase from IR spectra.Incorporation of NOx and SO_2 influence suggested that SOA formation from anthropogenic hydrocarbons may be more efficient in polluted environment.     

能源富集区市域经济发展水平空间格局演变——基于晋陕蒙甘宁地区

采用熵权TOPSIS法对我国晋陕蒙甘宁这一典型能源富集区各地级以上城市的市域经济发展水平进行综合评价,进而使用马尔可夫转移概率分析方法和ESDA空间分析方法,探索该地区市域经济发展水平时空分异格局的演化特征,结果显示：（1）该地区的市域经济发展差距在波动中下降;（2）各等级城市在不同时期演化规律截然相反,随时间推移,除低等级之外的各等级城市均表现出较高的等级下降风险;（3）该地区城市的市域经济水平曾存在一定空间负相关,到2015年这种关系则不再显著;（4）该地区呈现以局部为核心区的格局,但西部地区明显趋冷;（5）市域经济系统整体处于耦合协调度较低的状态,发展不平衡、不协调的问题较突出。     

温度和含水率对村镇垃圾焚烧烟气中有机物排放的影响

使用管式炉模拟村镇生活垃圾焚烧过程,研究不同焚烧温度和不同垃圾含水率条件下,村镇垃圾焚烧烟气中多环芳烃（PAHs）、氯苯及苯系物的生成和分布特性.结果表明,焚烧温度为550℃时,烟气中多环芳烃和氯苯的释放量最大,当温度小于550℃时,多环芳烃和氯苯的释放量随温度升高而增加,温度大于550℃时,多环芳烃和氯苯的释放量随温度升高而降低.高温焚烧不仅可以抑制烟气中多环芳烃的浓度及减少大分子量PAHs的排放,还能降低氯苯的释放量和氯代数,从而减小村镇垃圾焚烧烟气中的毒性;苯系物随着温度升高,由热解转变为高温合成,释放量也随着增加.水分对多环芳烃和氯苯有较大影响,对苯系物的影响较小.在400℃条件焚烧时,水分含量对多环芳烃总体上是促进的,而在850℃焚烧条件下则表现出抑制作用;而水分对氯苯则均表现出抑制作用,并且可以降低氯苯化合物的氯代数.     

北京市气温与黑碳和PM2.5对疾病死亡影响的交互效应

通过收集北京市2010~2016年逐日呼吸和心脑血管疾病死亡数据、污染物（BC、PM_2.5、SO₂、O₃和NO₂）日均浓度资料以及同期的气象资料,采用广义相加模型（GAMs）中的主效应模型、非参数二元响应模型和温度分层模型探讨了北京市气温、PM_2.5和BC单效应,以及气温与PM_2.5和BC交互作用分别对呼吸和心脑血管疾病死亡人数的影响.单效应分析结果表明,气温与两种疾病死亡人数的累计暴露-反应关系均呈“J”型分布特征,最适温度为24℃;累计滞后一天情况下PM_2.5和BC的健康效应均最显著,此时PM_2.5和BC浓度每升高四分位间距（IQR）,呼吸系统疾病死亡人数超额增加百分比（ER）分别为2.21%和1.80%,心脑血管疾病死亡人数ER分别为2.02%和1.48%.交互作用的研究结果表明,高温与高浓度的PM_2.5（或BC）对疾病死亡的影响存在协同效应,且高温条件下BC对疾病死亡影响的健康风险大于PM_2.5,当气温大于24℃时,BC和PM_2.5浓度每升高IQR对应的呼吸系统疾病死亡人数ER分别为6.22%和6.17%,心脑血管疾病死亡人数ER分别为5.01%和3.97%.虽然BC只占PM_2.5的一部分,但BC对人群健康的影响不容忽视,应该引起足够的重视.     

贵州农村污水典型抗生素污染水平及生态风险

抗生素残留物是一种新兴的微污染物,广泛存在于各种环境介质及生物样品中,长期暴露在抗生素环境会对人体健康、生态环境产生一定的潜在威胁。由于农村污水排放量逐渐增大、农村地区对抗生素的不合理使用以及受经济、地理地形的限制大部分农村地区都缺乏完整的污水收集管网和污水治理设施,进而导致抗生素通过多种途径进入农村环境,可能会对农村生态环境产生一定的环境风险。为了解贵州农村污水中抗生素的污染水平及处理后污水对环境的影响,作者采用固相萃取—液相色谱—串联质谱(SPE-LC-MS)联用技术,选取贵州省3处典型农村地区,对农村污水治理设施进出水中典型抗生素(包括6种磺胺类、3种四环素类、1种喹诺酮类抗生素)的浓度水平进行分析。结果表明,3处农村污水治理设施进水和出水中均检出不同程度的抗生素,浓度范围分别在ND～417.57 ng/L和ND～253.68 ng/L,其中土霉素浓度最高,进出水的浓度分别为417.57、253.68 ng/L;其次是氧氟沙星,在进出水中的最高浓度分别为278.75、183.73 ng/L。3处农村污水治理设施对抗生素的去除率在-58.32%～45.52%,对目标抗生素的去除率较低。与国内外其他地区农村污水相比,所选地区的进出水中抗生素的浓度较高。通过生态风险评估发现,经处理后的污水中均含有一种RQ≥1的抗生素物质,并且发现氧氟沙星为处理后污水中的高风险污染物,污水的排放会对环境造成一定的生态风险。