Minimizing life-cycle costs of gun propellant selection through model-based decision making: a case study in environmental screening and performance testing

The work presented here demonstrates the first phases of a newly-proposed gun propellant formulation process that will minimize life-cycle costs through science-based design. This new approach to gun propellant formulation proposes maximal use of modeling and simulation in the earliest phases of the developmental cycle to screen candidate formulations, resulting in the elimination of probable poor performers and the identification of the most promising candidates for further study and testing. The screening and identification of promising candidate formulations is demonstrated in the study presented here under the assumption of a specific weapon platform and user requirements. The process of selecting a propellant for the assumed gun system application has been distilled into a series of measurable steps leading from a set of candidate materials, through logical and numerical filters, to a shorter list of energetic materials demonstrated as viable choices for the weapon platform. Environmental filtering and performance modeling are used to screen propellants through a well-defined sequence of tests designed to weed out materials that do not meet standards in terms of safety, energy, or manufacturability. Because much of the testing is performed by computer modeling, the gun systems and energetic materials need not be present (nor even existent) in order to be described and matched against performance requirements for future applications. The calculations presented here demonstrate that utilizing computer models in the early developmental stages of the formulation process rather than physical testing produces enormous savings in labor, material, and environmental costs, along with a tremendous reduction in the time required to select a "best candidate" propellant.     

A comparison of temperate reef fish assemblages recorded by three underwater stereo-video techniques

Three underwater stereo-video techniques were used to sample the relative densities and species richness of temperate reef fish assemblages at three reef locations and two habitats (high- and low-relief reef) within Hamelin Bay, south-western Australia. The three techniques compared were diver-operated stereo-video strip transects, baited remote stereo-video and unbaited remote stereo-video. While unbaited remote stereo-video and diver-operated stereo-video transects recorded greater species richness at high compared to low-relief reefs, baited remote stereo-video recorded similar species richness at the two habitat types. The diver-operated stereo-video system was manoeuvred through caves and under overhangs recording small, cryptic, cave-dwelling species that were not recorded by either remote video techniques (Trachinops noarlungae, Trachinops brauni, Chromis klunzingeri, Trachichthys australis). Both remote video techniques recorded greater species richness and relative density of the most common species of Labridae, Ophthalmolepsis lineolatus. Baited remote video recorded the rarer, large predatory fish species (e.g. Seriola hippos, Glaucosoma hebraicum, Heterodontus portusjacksoni). None of the techniques sampled small cryptic fish families such as Gobiidae or Blenniidae. A combination of survey techniques is recommended for comprehensive fishery-independent studies that aim to sample broad components of fish assemblages.An erratum to this article can be found at     

Assessment of aquatic plants in the reservoirs of AES-tietê and development of an integrated control model for the most important species

The general objective of this work was to develop a monitoring and management model for aquatic plants that could be used in reservoir cascades in Brazil, using the reservoirs of AES-Tietê as a study case. The investigations were carried out at the reservoirs of Barra-Bonita, Bariri, Ibitinga, Promiss?o, and Nova-Avanhandava, located in the Tietê River Basin; Agua Vermelha, located in the Grande River Basin; Caconde, Limoeiro, and Euclides da Cunha, which are part of the Pardo River Basin; and the Mogi-Gua?u reservoir, which belongs to the Mogi-Gua?u River basin. The main products of this work were: development of techniques using satellite-generated images for monitoring and planning aquatic plant control; planning and construction of a boat to move coating plant masses and an airboat equipped with a DGPS navigation and application flow control system. Results allowed to conclude that the occurrence of all types of aquatic plants is directly associated with sedimentation process and, consequently, with nutrient and light availability. Reservoirs placed at the beginning of cascades are more subject to sedimentation and occurrence of marginal, floating and emerged plants, and are the priority when it comes to controlling these plants, since they provide a supply of weeds for the other reservoirs. Reservoirs placed downstream show smaller amounts of water-suspended solids, with greater transmission of light and occurrence of submerged plants.     

Parental investment and pair-bond behavior among canvasback ducks (Aythya valisineria,Anatidae)

Summary Hypothetical patterns of male and female cumulative reproductive effort in canvasback ducks were used to predict the efforts of males and females in pair-bond reinforcing behavior through a breeding sequence. The predictions were that, at any point in time in a monogamous breeding system, given certain assumptions, (a) the sex investing less should be more active in reinforcing the pair bond, and (b) this relationship should shift within and between breeding attempts with the pattern of cumulative reproductive effort per brood by the male and female. Data on the behavior of newly-formed pairs were obtained by observing apparently paired but unmarked canvasbacks during spring migration. Later, 11 individuallymarked pairs were followed through breeding sequences, including repeated nesting attempts. Observed affiliative behavior fit the predictions reasonably well. That sex whose cumulative reproductive effort was less tended to be more active in maintaining proximity to its mate, initiating bouts of mutual display, and coordinating pair activities. Predictions were met in 14 of 24 cases, results were contrary in 3 cases, and in 7 cases trends were not statistically different (P>0.05). Shifts in relative male and female reinforcement efforts that coincided with major changes in investment were apparent. These results support the proposition that factors other than simple parental investment-related desertion costs might be important to an individual's behavioral decisions regarding pairbond reinforcement and ultimately mate abandonment. Discrepancies in a few predicted outcomes further suggest that males and females may use and balance various pair-reinforcement tactics differently through a breeding season.     

Reconstructing the history of 14C discharges from Sellafield: part 1--atmospheric discharges

14C specific activities, above ambient background levels, were determined in individual treerings (corresponding to the years 1950-1999) sectioned from an oak tree that was felled in autumn 1999, from a location 1.5 km east of the Sellafield nuclear fuel reprocessing plant in Cumbria. north-west England. The data were used to produce a new, improved, reconstruction of Sellafield's annual atmospheric 14C discharges between 1951 and 1999, using the most reliable discharge data set (1994-1999) as the primary basis for the determination of a new calibration factor that relates excess 14C activity in individual tree rings to the annual discharge during the corresponding year. The results indicate that the current British Nuclear Fuels plc (BNFL) estimate of total 14C discharges to the atmosphere prior to 1978 is significantly overestimated, while the current estimate of total 14C discharges after 1978 is very similar to that determined in this study. In this study, the total activity of 14C discharged to the atmosphere from Sellafield between 1951 and 1999 is estimated to be 259+/-63 TBq (at 2 std. dev.). The BNFL current estimate is 360TBq.     

Clarifying values,risk perceptions,and attitudes to resolve or avoid social conflicts in invasive species management

Decision makers and researchers recognize the need to effectively confront the social dimensions and conflicts inherent to invasive species research and management. Yet, despite numerous contentious situations that have arisen, no systematic evaluation of the literature has examined the commonalities in the patterns and types of these emergent social issues. Using social and ecological keywords, we reviewed trends in the social dimensions of invasive species research and management and the sources and potential solutions to problems and conflicts that arise around invasive species. We integrated components of cognitive hierarchy theory and risk perceptions theory to provide a conceptual framework to identify, distinguish, and provide understanding of the driving factors underlying disputes associated with invasive species. In the ISI Web of Science database, we found 15,915 peer‐reviewed publications on biological invasions, 124 of which included social dimensions of this phenomenon. Of these 124, 28 studies described specific contentious situations. Social approaches to biological invasions have emerged largely in the last decade and have focused on both environmental social sciences and resource management. Despite being distributed in a range of journals, these 124 articles were concentrated mostly in ecology and conservation‐oriented outlets. We found that conflicts surrounding invasive species arose based largely on differences in value systems and to a lesser extent stakeholder and decision maker's risk perceptions. To confront or avoid such situations, we suggest integrating the plurality of environmental values into invasive species research and management via structured decision making techniques, which enhance effective risk communication that promotes trust and confidence between stakeholders and decision makers. Clarificar los Valores, Percepciones de Riesgo y Actitudes para Resolver o Evitar Conflictos Sociales en el Manejo de Especies Invasoras     

The theory behind,and the challenges of,conserving nature's stage in a time of rapid change

Most conservation planning to date has focused on protecting today's biodiversity with the assumption that it will be tomorrow's biodiversity. However, modern climate change has already resulted in distributional shifts of some species and is projected to result in many more shifts in the coming decades. As species redistribute and biotic communities reorganize, conservation plans based on current patterns of biodiversity may fail to adequately protect species in the future. One approach for addressing this issue is to focus on conserving a range of abiotic conditions in the conservation‐planning process. By doing so, it may be possible to conserve an abiotically diverse “stage” upon which evolution will play out and support many actors (biodiversity). We reviewed the fundamental underpinnings of the concept of conserving the abiotic stage, starting with the early observations of von Humboldt, who mapped the concordance of abiotic conditions and vegetation, and progressing to the concept of the ecological niche. We discuss challenges posed by issues of spatial and temporal scale, the role of biotic drivers of species distributions, and latitudinal and topographic variation in relationships between climate and landform. For example, abiotic conditions are not static, but change through time—albeit at different and often relatively slow rates. In some places, biotic interactions play a substantial role in structuring patterns of biodiversity, meaning that patterns of biodiversity may be less tightly linked to the abiotic stage. Furthermore, abiotic drivers of biodiversity can change with latitude and topographic position, meaning that the abiotic stage may need to be defined differently in different places. We conclude that protecting a diversity of abiotic conditions will likely best conserve biodiversity into the future in places where abiotic drivers of species distributions are strong relative to biotic drivers, where the diversity of abiotic settings will be conserved through time, and where connectivity allows for movement among areas providing different abiotic conditions.