The effect of model structure and data in modeling land conditions in disturbed complex ecosystems

Off-road vehicles increase soil erosion by reducing vegetation cover and other types of ground cover, and by changing the structure of soil. The investigation of the relationship between disturbance from off-road vehicles and the intensity of the activities that involve use of vehicles is essential for water and soil conservation and facility management. Models have been developed in a previous study to predict disturbance caused by off-road vehicles. However, the effect of data on model quality and model performance, and the appropriate structure of models have not been previously investigated. In order to improve the quality and performance of disturbance models, this study was designed to investigate the effects of model structure and data. The experiment considered and tested: (1) two measures of disturbance based on the Vegetation Cover Factor (C Factor) of the Revised Universal Soil Loss Equation (RUSLE) and Disturbance Intensity; (2) model structure using two modeling approaches; and (3) three subsets of data. The adjusted R-square and residuals from validation data are used to represent model quality and performance, respectively. Analysis of variance (ANOVA) is used to identify factors which have significant effects on model quality and performance. The results of the ANOVA show that subsets of data have significant effects on both model quality and performance for both measures of disturbance. The ANOVA also detected that the C Factor models have higher quality and performance than the Disturbance models. Although modeling approaches are not a significant factor based on the ANOVA tests, models containing interaction terms can increase the adjusted R-squares for nearly all tested conditions and the maximum improvement can reach 31%.     

Disasters and the Information Technology Revolution

This paper, the second in a series of state-of-the art reviews, examines the evolution and possible medium-term future of information technology (IT) in disaster management. Until the end of the 1970s, civilian application of IT to disaster management was confined to a few specialised departments of universities, large companies and government. Between the late 1970s and mid-1980s, microprocessor-based devices brought limited, though rapidly improving, computing capacity to a wider range of organisations and individuals. Operational applications included real-time emergency information, management decision support and programme and project planning. Extensive innovation occurred, though operational implementation was often long delayed or limited in scope. During the late 1980s, desktop systems became more powerful, more networked, more portable and generally more mature, with a range of practical emergency-related tools emerging. Computer communications emerged as a practical technology for linking emergency professionals on a global basis. From the early 1990s onwards, powerful and inter-connectable computer equipment has evolved to become an indispensable component of disaster operations worldwide. There are presently major changes under way in emergency-related global information access and networking — the implications of which have yet to be played out. The last part of the paper highlights a set of key technologies which seems likely to shape disaster planning, management and research over the next 10 years, and draws out some operational and organisational implications.     

Great cormorants (<Emphasis Type="Italic">Phalacrocorax carbo</Emphasis>) can detect auditory cues while diving

In-air hearing in birds has been thoroughly investigated. Sound provides birds with auditory information for species and individual recognition from their complex vocalizations, as well as cues while foraging and for avoiding predators. Some 10% of existing species of birds obtain their food under the water surface. Whether some of these birds make use of acoustic cues while underwater is unknown. An interesting species in this respect is the great cormorant (Phalacrocorax carbo), being one of the most effective marine predators and relying on the aquatic environment for food year round. Here, its underwater hearing abilities were investigated using psychophysics, where the bird learned to detect the presence or absence of a tone while submerged. The greatest sensitivity was found at 2 kHz, with an underwater hearing threshold of 71 dB re 1 μPa rms. The great cormorant is better at hearing underwater than expected, and the hearing thresholds are comparable to seals and toothed whales in the frequency band 1–4 kHz. This opens up the possibility of cormorants and other aquatic birds having special adaptations for underwater hearing and making use of underwater acoustic cues from, e.g., conspecifics, their surroundings, as well as prey and predators.     

Much ado about nothings: using zero similarity points in distance-decay curves

Distance decay is used to describe the (usually exponential) decay in ecological similarity of assemblages between two sites as a function of their distance apart along an environmental gradient. Exponential distance-decay curves are routinely fitted by calculating the ecological similarity between each pair of sites, and fitting a linear regression to the points on a scatter plot of log-similarity vs. distance (x-axis). However, pairs of sites where the assemblages have no species in common pose a problem, because the similarity is zero, and the log transformation cannot be applied. Common fixes to this problem (i.e., either removing or transforming the zero values) are shown to have undesirable consequences and to give widely disparate estimates. A new method is presented as a special case of a generalized dissimilarity model. It is fitted very quickly and easily using existing software, and it does not require removal or transformation of the zero similarity points. Its simplicity makes it convenient for use in conjunction with the resampling methods that are routinely employed to test hypotheses, to obtain standard errors of estimated parameters, or to compare distance-decay curves. A word of caution about standard application of the bootstrap is noted, and modified bootstrap and jackknife alternatives are demonstrated.     

Dopamine release by the green alga <Emphasis Type="Italic">Ulvaria obscura</Emphasis> after simulated immersion by incoming tides

Ulvaria obscura, a prominent component of green tide blooms in Washington, is unique among macroalgae because it contains dopamine. To examine dopamine release by U. obscura following simulated low tides, we conducted 6 field experiments in which algae were emersed for 75 min and then immersed in filtered seawater (FSW). Dopamine was measured in algal tissues prior to emersion and 3 h after immersion and in seawater for 3 h following immersion. In our experiments, algae released 7–100% of their tissue dopamine, resulting in average seawater concentrations of 3–563 μM. In 5 of 6 experiments, seawater dopamine concentrations were highest immediately after immersion, and then decreased over time. The percentages of dopamine released were not correlated with tissue dopamine concentrations, but were positively correlated with solar radiation during emersion. The release of dopamine, which is both cytotoxic and genotoxic, may explain the negative effects of U. obscura exudates on marine organisms.     

MODELING FLOW IN THE EVERGLADES AGRICULTURAL AREA IRRIGATION/DRAINAGE CANAL NETWORK1

ABSTRACT: The south Florida ecosystem and Lake Okeechobee are important water resource areas that have degraded due to changes in hydroperiod, water supply, and water quality. Approximately 56 percent of the total phosphorus in water discharged from the Everglades Agricultural Area (EAA) is in particulate form. Currently, farm-level best management practices are being implemented in the effort to reduce total phosphorus and sediment in off-farm discharges. The objective of this work was to develop and calibrate a model describing water movement in primary EAA canals as a first step to development of a water quality (i.e., nutrient, sediment) model. The Netherlands-developed mechanistic flow and water quality model (DUFLOW) was adapted for the EAA. Flow, stage, geometry, canal network, and meteorological data, October 13, 1993, to February 13, 1994, were used to adapt and calibrate the DUFLOW model for EAA water level and flow in primary canals. Direct runoff discharge into the primary canals from farm-pump stations was used as runoff input for the model. The model results are comparable to an independently-calculated water balance for the EAA. The calibrated flow model will be the basis for the calibration of sediment and chemical transport in the future.     

Variation among congeneric dinoflagellates from the northeastern United States and Canada

Relationships among dinoflagellates of the genus Alexandrium (=Protogonyaulax) from Long Island, New England, USA, and northeastern Canada were investigated between 1983 and 1987 using enzyme electrophoresis. A relative lack of heterogeneity among toxic isolates was observed despite large geographic separations of source populations. This observation is in marked contrast to observations on toxic members of this genus from the west coast of Canada and the United States. These different enzyme variability patterns support the proposal that dispersal of toxic strains in the east from a common source has occurred recently, presumably from established populations in northern Maine, USA, or Canada. Non-toxic strains from the study area were only distantly related to toxic isolates, consistent with their different morphology and separate species designations. One non-toxic isolate from a different region, that is conspecific with a number of the toxic strains, was more similar to these isolates than to other non-toxic clones.     

Studies of the oxidative photoinduced degradation of silicones in the aquatic environment

During irradiation of aqueous solutions of a mixture of oligomeric dimethylsiloxanes with artificial sunlight in the presence of nitrate ions, a reduction in the concentration of the siloxanes was demonstrated. This was verified by atomic absorption spectroscopy and proton nuclear magnetic resonance spectroscopy.In two separate tests, average halflives of 9 and 4 days, respectively, were determined after extraction of the aqueous solutions and analysis by atomic absorption spectroscopy.Silicate was demonstrated to be the final photodegradation product of these water soluble siloxanes. Photometric determination of silicate after 35 days showed nearly complete transformation, based on the original quantity of siloxanes.When an aqueous emulsion of high molecular-weight poly(dimethylsiloxane) was irradiated in the presence of nitrate ions under similar experimental conditions, a level of silicate corresponding to 1.7% of the original quantity of poly(dimethylsiloxane) was found after 5 weeks.