MONTHLY RUNOFF PREDICTIONS BASED ON RAINFALL FORECASTS IN A SMALL OKLAHOMA WATERSHED1

ABSTRACT: Conditions under which monthly rainfall forecasts translate into monthly runoff predictions that could support water resources planning and management activities were investigated on a small watershed in central Oklahoma. Runoff response to rainfall forecasts was simulated using the hydrologic model SWAT. Eighteen scenarios were examined that represented combinations of wet, average, and dry antecedent rainfall conditions, with wet, normal, and dry forecasted rainfall. Results suggest that for the climatic and physiographic conditions under consideration, rainfall forecasts could offer potential application opportunities in surface water resources but only under certain conditions. Pronounced wet and dry antecedent rainfall conditions were shown to have greater impact on runoff than forecasts, particularly in the first month of a forecast period. Large forecast impacts on runoff occurred under wet antecedent conditions, when the fraction of forecasted rainfall contributing to runoff was greatest. Under dry antecedent conditions, most of the forecasted rainfall was absorbed in the soil profile, with little immediate runoff response. Persistent three‐month forecasts produced stronger impacts on runoff than one‐month forecasts due to cumulative effects in the hydrologic system. Runoff response to antecedent conditions and forecasts suggest a highly asymmetric utility function for rainfall forecasts, with greatest decision‐support potential for persistent wet forecasts under wet antecedent conditions when the forecast signal is least dampened by soil‐storage effects. Under average and dry antecedent conditions, rainfall forecasts showed little potential value for practical applications in surface water resources assessments.     

Assessing the sustainability of water governance systems: the sustainability wheel

We present and test a conceptual and methodological approach for interdisciplinary sustainability assessments of water governance systems based on what we call the sustainability wheel. The approach combines transparent identification of sustainability principles, their regional contextualization through sub-principles (indicators), and the scoring of these indicators through deliberative dialogue within an interdisciplinary team of researchers, taking into account their various qualitative and quantitative research results. The approach was applied to a sustainability assessment of a complex water governance system in the Swiss Alps. We conclude that the applied approach is advantageous for structuring complex and heterogeneous knowledge, gaining a holistic and comprehensive perspective on water sustainability, and communicating this perspective to stakeholders.     

Molecular studies on the ouabain binding site of the Na+, K+-ATPase in milkweed butterflies

Summary. The Na⁺, K⁺-ATPase of the Monarch butterfly (Danaus plexippus) is insensitive to the inhibition by cardiac glycosides due to an amino acid replacement: histidine instead of asparagine at position 122 of the α-subunit representing the ouabain binding site. By PCR amplification of the DNA sequence of this site, a PCR product of 270 bp was obtained from DNA extracted from Danainae species (Danaus plexippus, D. chrysippus, D. gillipus, D. philene, D. genutia, Tirumala hamata, Euploea spp., Parantica weiskei, P. melusine), Sphingidae (Daphnis nerii) and mimics of milkweed butterflies (Hypolimnas missipus, Limenitis archippus and L. arthemis, Nymphalidae). Analysis of the nucleotide sequences revealed that the single point mutation in the ouabain binding domain (AAC-Asn for CAC-His) was present only in Danaus plexippus, but not in the other species investigated. Since these milkweed butterflies also store cardenolides, other structural modifications of the Na⁺, K⁺-ATPase may have occurred or other strategies of cardenolide tolerance have been developed. Received 15 May 2000; accepted 29 June 2000     

210Pb and 210Po in Finnish cereals

A survey was carried out on the activity concentrations of ²¹⁰Pb and ²¹⁰Po in cereal grains produced in Finland. The cereal species were wheat (Triticum aestivum), rye (Secale cereale), oats (Avena sativa) and barley (Hordeum vulgare), which account for 90% of the Finnish consumption of cereal products. The survey consisted of 18 flour and 13 unprocessed cereal samples and one hulled grain sample from 22 flour mills. According to the results, the mean ²¹⁰Pb/²¹⁰Po concentrations in wheat grains, wheat flour, rye flour, oat grains and barley grains were 0.29, 0.12, 0.29, 0.36 and 0.36 Bq kg⁻¹, respectively. Combined with the consumption rates of the products, we assess that the mean effective doses from ²¹⁰Pb and ²¹⁰Po in cereal products for the adult male and female population are 22 and 17 μSv per year, respectively.     

Human dietary intake of organochlorines from Baltic herring: implications of individual fish variability and fisheries management

This study examines the extent to which Finnish human dietary intake of organochlorines (PCDD/Fs and PCBs) originating from Northern Baltic herring can be influenced by fisheries management. This was investigated by estimation of human intake using versatile modeling tools (e.g., a herring population model and a bioenergetics model). We used a probabilistic approach to account for the variation in human intake of organochlorines originating from the variation among herring individuals. Our estimates were compared with present precautionary limits and recommendation for use. The results show that present consumption levels and frequencies of herring give a high probability of exceeding recommended intake limits of PCDD/Fs and PCBs. Furthermore, our results clearly demonstrate that in the risk management of dioxinlike organochlorines, regulating fishing (in this case increasing fishing pressure) is a far less effective way to decrease the risk than regulating the consumption of herring. Increased fishing would only slightly decrease organochlorine concentrations of herring in the Finnish fish market.     

Different collector types for sampling deposition of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons--comparison of measurement results and their uncertainty

Different collector types, sample workup procedures and analysis methods to measure the deposition of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAH) were tested and compared. Whilst sample workup and analysis methods did not influence the results of PAH deposition measurements, using different collector types changed the measured deposition rates of PAH significantly. The results obtained with a funnel-bottle collector showed the highest deposition rates and a low measurement uncertainty. The deposition rates obtained with the wet-only collectors were the lowest at industrial sites and under dry weather conditions. For the open-jar collectors the measurement uncertainty was high. Only at an industrial site with extremely high PAH deposition rates the results of open-jar collectors were comparable to those obtained with funnel-bottle collectors. Thus, if bulk deposition of PAH has to be measured, funnel-bottle combinations are proved to be the collectors of choice. These collectors were the only ones always fulfilling the requirements of European legislation.