Neural Network Input Selection for Hydrological Forecasting Affected by Snowmelt1

Abstract: Snowmelt largely affects runoff in watersheds in Nordic countries. Neural networks (NN) are particularly attractive for streamflow forecasting whereas they rely at least on daily streamflow and precipitation observations. The selection of pertinent model inputs is a major concern in NNs implementation. This study investigates performance of auxiliary NN inputs that allow short‐term streamflow forecasting without resorting to a deterministic snowmelt routine. A case study is presented for the Rivière des Anglais watershed (700 km²) located in Southern Québec, Canada. Streamflow (Q), precipitations (rain R and snow S, or total P), temperature (T) and snow lying (A) observations, combined with climatic and snowmelt proxy data, including snowmelt flow (Q_SM) obtained from a deterministic model, were tested. NN implemented with antecedent Q and R produced the largest gains in performance. Introducing increments of A and T to the NNs further improved the performance. Long‐term averages, seasonal data, and Q_SM failed to improve the networks.     

Do trans-Pacific air masses deliver PBDEs to coastal British Columbia, Canada?

In order to distinguish between ‘local’ and ‘background’ sources of polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) and polybrominated diphenyl ethers (PBDEs) in coastal British Columbia (Canada) air, we collected samples from two sites: a remote site on western Vancouver Island, and a near-urban site in the Strait of Georgia. Seasonally-integrated samples of vapor, particulate, and rain were collected continuously during 365 days for analysis of 275 PCB and PBDE congeners. While deposition of the legacy PCBs was similar at both sampling sites, deposition of PBDEs at the remote site amounted to 42% (10.4 mg/ha/year) of that at the near-urban site. Additional research into atmospheric circulation in the NE Pacific Ocean will provide more insight into the transport and fate of priority pollutants in this region, but trans-Pacific delivery of PBDEs to the west coast of North America may underlie in part our observations. For example, approximately 40% of >12,000 ten-day back trajectories calculated for the remote site originated over Asia, compared to only 2% over North America.     

How does spouse career support relate to employee turnover? Work interfering with family and job satisfaction as mediators

Employee turnover is a major concern because of its cost to organizations. Although theory supports the influence of nonwork factors on turnover, our understanding of the degree to which nonwork factors relate to actual turnover behavior is not well developed. Using a sample of 5505 U.S. Army officers, we assessed the extent to which spouse career support related to reduced turnover four years later through work interfering with family (WIF) and job satisfaction as mechanisms. Results revealed that spouse career support decreased the odds of turnover, and WIF and job satisfaction sequentially mediated this relationship, with lower WIF and higher job satisfaction reducing the odds of turnover. Practical implications of using family support systems as retention interventions are discussed. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Influence of task demands on occupational stress: Gender differences

IntroductionOccupational stress is a common phenomenon in our society, and generates problems for both workers' health and the functioning of organizations. Over past decades numerous studies have examined occupational stress from the perspective of gender, offering somewhat contradictory results. Some of them found no differences and others indicated that either men or women suffer from greater amounts of occupational stress.MethodThe purpose of this study was to analyze gender differences in stress in situations that involve certain occupational demands. The data used were taken from a random sample population of 11,054 (5,917 men and 5,137 women) from the VI National Survey on Working Conditions (NSWC) which was conducted in Spain in 2007. To carry out this study, a probabilistic model was constructed using Bayesian networks, with the following variables related to task demands: working with tight deadlines, quick work, intellectually demanding work, complicated tasks, repetitive tasks, excessive work, and work demanding high attention levels.ResultsThe results of this study reveal that: the indicators studied significantly increased stress levels; women initially had higher stress levels than men; and when exposed to determined task demands, stress differences between genders tended to increase.Impact on IndustryCompanies need to consider the gender of their workers when assigning tasks in high demand/stress jobs.     

The effect of grazing on biodiversity in coastal dune heathlands

The effect of sheep grazing on species richness, higher order diversity measures, inequality, species composition, functional diversity and allometric relationships at a coastal dune heathland site was investigated. After a prescribed fire in 2002, the site was divided into two parts, where one of the parts was unmanaged and the other part was fenced and grazed by sheep. Sheep grazing had a positive effect on species richness as well as a significant positive effect on the functional diversity at the coastal dune heathland site. Generally, the cover of dwarf shrubs was negatively affected by grazing, whereas the cover of sedges and grasses was positively affected by grazing. There is a need for comparative investigations of the effect of different management methods not only on floristic biodiversity, but on all relevant kinds of biodiversity as well as on soil structure, soil chemistry and habitat micro- and macrostructure. Consequently, we advocate the initiation of an international systematic investigation of the effect of different management methods.     

Growth and sexual maturity of the northern propellerclam (<Emphasis Type="Italic">Cyrtodaria siliqua</Emphasis>) in Eastern Canada,with bomb radiocarbon age validation

The northern propellerclam Cyrtodaria siliqua is a common bycatch in the Arctic surfclam, Mactromeris polynyma fishery on Banquereau Bank in Eastern Canada. Samples of the propellerclam from this exploited fishery were used to determine the life history characteristics of the population. The age structure of the population is dominated by old animals to ages exceeding 100 years. We validated the age estimates for the propellerclam through analysis of bomb-produced radiocarbon in the shell growth increments deposited before, during and after the atmospheric atomic bomb testing periods of the 1950s and 1960s. Radiocarbon from shells with presumed birth dates between the late 1950s and 1970s clearly reflected the sharp increase in oceanic radiocarbon attributable to previous nuclear testing, indicating that age estimates based on shell increment counts are accurate. Estimates of von Bertalanffy growth parameters revealed that the growth rate of the population was relatively rapid for the first 20 years of life, slowing down to very low growth rates thereafter. Sexual maturity was estimated as being reached at 28.6 mm in length and 4.7 years in age. Size–weight morphometric relationships were also calculated.     

Do rewardless orchids show a positive relationship between phenotypic diversity and reproductive success?

Among rewardless orchids, pollinator sampling behavior has been suggested to drive a positive relationship between population phenotypic variability and absolute reproductive success, and hence population fitness. We tested this hypothesis by constructing experimental arrays using the rewardless orchid Dactylorhiza sambucina, which is dimorphic for corolla color. We found no evidence that polymorphic arrays had higher mean reproductive success than monomorphic arrays for pollinia removal, pollen deposition, or fruit set. For pollinia removal, monomorphic yellow arrays had significantly greater reproductive success, and monomorphic red the least. A tendency for yellow arrays to have higher pollen deposition was also found. We argue that differential population fitness was most likely to reflect differential numbers of pollinators attracted to arrays, through preferential long-distance attraction to arrays with yellow inflorescences. Correlative studies of absolute reproductive success in 52 populations of D. sambucina supported our experimental results. To our knowledge this is the first study to suggest that attraction of a greater number of pollinators to rewardless orchids may be of greater functional importance to population fitness, and thus ecology and conservation, than are the behavioral sequences of individual pollinators.     

Prey density and the behavioral flexibility of a marine predator: the common murre (Uria aalge)

Flexible time budgets allow individual animals to buffer the effects of variable food availability by allocating more time to foraging when food density decreases. This trait should be especially important for marine predators that forage on patchy and ephemeral food resources. We examined flexible time allocation by a long-lived marine predator, the Common Murre (Uria aalge), using data collected in a five-year study at three colonies in Alaska (USA) with contrasting environmental conditions. Annual hydroacoustic surveys revealed an order-of-magnitude variation in food density among the 15 colony-years of study. We used data on parental time budgets and local prey density to test predictions from two hypotheses: Hypothesis A, the colony attendance of seabirds varies nonlinearly with food density; and Hypothesis B, flexible time allocation of parent murres buffers chicks against variable food availability. Hypothesis A was supported; colony attendance by murres was positively correlated with food over a limited range of poor-to-moderate food densities, but independent of food over a broader range of higher densities. This is the first empirical evidence for a nonlinear response of a marine predator's time budget to changes in prey density. Predictions from Hypothesis B were largely supported: (1) chick-feeding rates were fairly constant over a wide range of densities and only dropped below 3.5 meals per day at the low end of prey density, and (2) there was a nonlinear relationship between chick-feeding rates and time spent at the colony, with chick-feeding rates only declining after time at the colony by the nonbrooding parent was reduced to a minimum. The ability of parents to adjust their foraging time by more than 2 h/d explains why they were able to maintain chick-feeding rates of more than 3.5 meals/d across a 10-fold range in local food density.     

Modification of hosts' behavior by a parasite: field evidence for adaptive manipulation

Parasites relying on trophic transmission to complete their life cycles often induce modifications of their host's behavior in ways that may increase their susceptibility to predation by final hosts. These modifications have often been interpreted as parasite adaptations, but very few studies have demonstrated that host manipulation has fitness benefits for the parasite. The aim of the present study was to address the adaptive significance of parasite manipulation by coupling observations of behavioral manipulation to estimates of trophic transmission to the definitive host in the natural environment. We show that the acanthocephalan parasite Pomphorhynchus laevis manipulates the drifting behavior of one of its intermediate hosts, the amphipod Gammarus pulex, but not of a sympatric host, the introduced amphipod Gammarus roeseli. We found a 26.3-28.3 times higher proportion of infected G. pulex in the stomach content of one of the definitive hosts of P. laevis, the bullhead Cottus gobio, than in the benthos. No such trend was observed for G. roeseli. The bell-shaped curve of mean parasite abundance (MPA) relative to host size observed in G. pulex also supported an increased predation mortality of P. laevis-infected individuals compared to uninfected amphipods. Again, no such pattern was observed in G. roeseli. Furthermore, our results indicate that the modifications induced by P. laevis are specific to the definitive host and do not increase the risk of predation by inappropriate hosts, here the adult edible frog Rana esculenta. Overall, our study is original in that it establishes, under field conditions, a direct link between parasitic manipulation and increased transmission to the definitive host, and more importantly, identifies the specificity of the manipulation both in the intermediate host species and toward the definitive host.