Probabilistic approaches in the effect assessment of toxic chemicals. What are the benefits and limitations?

There is an ongoing discussion whether in the environmental risk assessment for chemicals the so called 'deterministic' approach using point estimates of exposure and effect concentrations is still appropriate. Instead, the more detailed and scientifically sounder probabilistic methods that have been developed over the last years are widely recommended. Here, we present the results of a probabilistic effect assessment for the aquatic environment performed for the pesticide methyl parathion and compare them with the results obtained with the common deterministic approach as described in the EU Technical Guidance Document. Methyl parathion was chosen because a sufficient data set (acute toxicity data for about 70 species) was available. The assumptions underlying the probabilistic effect assessment are discussed in the light of the results obtained for methyl parathion. Two important assumptions made by many studies are: (i) a sufficient number of ecologically relevant toxicity data is available, (ii) the toxicity data follow a certain distribution such as log-normal. Considering the scarcity of data for many industrial chemicals, we conclude that these assumptions would not be fulfilled in many cases if the probabilistic assessment was applied to the majority of industrial chemicals. Therefore, despite the well-known limitations of the deterministic approach, it should not be replaced by probabilistic methods unless the assumptions of these methods are carefully checked in each individual case, which would significantly increase the effort for the assessment procedure.     

Multi-risk,multi-scale and multi-stakeholder – the contribution of a bow-tie analysis for risk management in the trilateral Wadden Sea Region

Risk management processes increasingly call for enhanced stakeholder participation, and aim to integrate different risk perceptions, concerns and interests. Frequently, this goal is driven by the increased complexity of risk management processes, as risk management processes continuously have to deal with multi-risk situations including impacts resulting from risks of natural hazards and risks caused by misguided social or economic development. Although stakeholder participation is required by different policies, major challenges still arise from the question of how to perform multi-stakeholder participation in practice. In order to find answers, we tested the so-called ‘bow-tie analysis’ as a potential tool to facilitate multi-stakeholder participation with a major effort on integrating stakeholders risk perceptions and interest in the risk management processes. The bow-tie analysis is a commonly used risk assessment technique (IEC 2009) to analyse cause-and-effect pathways of risks, but its application in multi-stakeholder processes in risk management of natural hazards, especially in a European context, is rather new. Using practical experiences from the trilateral Wadden Sea Region we demonstrate the bow-tie analysis’ contribution to coastal risk management processes in this coastal area by facilitating collaborative identification, comprehension and analysis of the management system. The use of a modified bow-tie analysis in collaboration with stakeholders from the Wadden Sea Region proved to be an appropriate framework for enhancing the understanding of risk management processes and fostered disclosure of different perceptions and concerns of multi-risk problematics. The bow-tie can be beneficial as a communication and co-construction tool in risk management processes in a multi-risk context.     

Considering the locals: coastal construction and destruction in times of climate change on Anjouan,Comoros

The current discussion of anticipated climate change impacts and future sea level rise is particularly relevant to small island states. An increase in natural hazards, such as floods and storm waves, is likely to have a devastating impact on small islands' coastlines, severely affecting targeted sustainable development. Coastal erosion, notably human‐induced erosion, has been an ongoing threat to small island biodiversity, resources, infrastructure, and settlements, as well as society at large. In the context of climate change, the problem of coastal erosion and the debate surrounding it is gaining momentum. Before attributing associated impacts to climate change, current human activities need to be analysed, focusing not only on geomorphological and climatological aspects, but also on political and traditional cultural frameworks. The objective of this paper is to demonstrate the importance of the social‐political‐ecological systems analysis for adaptation strategies, and thus for future sustainable development. Coastal use is based on human constructs of the coast, as well as local perceptions and values ascribed to the coast. We use the case study of Anjouan, Comoros to differentiate between constructive and destructive practices on the coast, from both a mental and technical perspective. Beach erosion is described as more than a resource problem that manifests itself locally rather than nationally. Divergent political scales of interest impact future development as much as local action. Local action is not least framed by mental contribution and attribution of coasts as places for living, recreation and resource use. The present case study demonstrates that mental constructs of coasts as valuable areas can, in some cases, lead to the protection and preservation of beaches by initiatives of collective action. At the same time, local communities see the negative impacts of sand mining as causes of coastal erosion and, therefore, it is difficult to mobilize them to adapt to climate change and sea level rise.     

A new hazard index of complex mixtures integrates bioconcentration and toxicity to refine the environmental risk assessment of effluents

A new methodology to evaluate the overall environmental hazard of unknown mixtures, based on bioconcentration potential and toxicity, was developed using a combination of two methodologies: 1) the estimation of the octanol-water partition coefficient (K(ow)) using reverse-phase high performance liquid chromatography (RP-HPLC) and 2) the toxicity identification evaluation (TIE). Forty seven compounds with known K(ow) and different molecular structures where used for the calibration of the log K(ow) in relation to the retention time in reverse-phase high performance liquid chromatography (RP-HPLC). A linear regression with an R(2)=0.81 and an sd=0.69 was established between log K(ow) and RP-HPLC retention time. This K(ow) estimation method was furthermore validated using seven additional compounds, showing acceptable estimations of the log K(ow) of unknown substances. Two different mixtures were tested, one containing 3,4 Dichloroaniline, Diazinon and 4-Nonylphenol and another one containing a mixture of 16 pesticides. Both mixtures were first tested as a whole effluent and then fractionated and tested, using a miniaturized Daphnia magna test. An equation is presented, that combines both methodologies and establishes a relative hazard index RHI, ranging from 1 to 10 for any particular mixture of chemicals. The results show how the method presented can refine the security factors that could be included in the environmental risk assessment of effluents in the future.     

Isolation by distance in the scleractinian coral <Emphasis Type="Italic">Seriatopora hystrix</Emphasis> from the Red Sea

Pelagic dispersal of larvae in sessile marine invertebrates could in principle lead to a homogeneous gene pool over vast distances, yet there is increasing evidence of surprisingly high levels of genetic differentiation on small spatial scale. To evaluate whether larval dispersal is spatially limited and correlated with distance, we conducted a study on the widely distributed, viviparous reef coral Seriatopora hystrix from the Red Sea where we investigated ten populations separated between ~0.150 km and ~610 km. We addressed these questions with newly developed, highly variable microsatellite markers. We detected moderate genetic differentiation among populations based on both F _ST and R _ST (0.089 vs. 0.136, respectively) as well as considerable heterozygote deficits. Mantel tests revealed isolation by distance effects on a small geographic scale (≤20 km), indicating limited dispersal of larvae. Our data did not reveal any evidence against strictly sexual reproduction among the studied populations.     

关于改进可电离有机化学品水生危害评估方法和模型的建议

有机酸、碱等可电离有机化学品（IOCs）是一类重要的物质，需要进行水生危害评估。尽管IOCs的水生毒性高度依赖于水的pH值，在文献中的许多毒性研究由于没有记录pH或在实验期间pH不恒定而无法进行解释，这说明需要对测试指南进行改进。pH对毒性的调节作用主要是由pH依赖性吸收和IOCs的生物积累引起的，这可以通过离子捕获和毒代动力学模型来描述。由于生物体和细胞具有维持稳定的内部pH环境的能力，IOCs的内部效应浓度与外部pH无关。如果外部pH接近于内部pH，可以使用离子化校正脂质体水分配比代替正辛醇-水分配系数作为疏水性描述符，即通过对靶脂质模型的修饰改写现有的适用于中性有机物的定量结构-活性关系（QSAR）。一种IOC的带电离子、两性离子和中性粒子可通过浓度加成混合物效应或通过不同类型粒子的相互作用（例如线粒体呼吸解偶联）帮助解释观察到的毒性。对于具体作用的IOCs，我们推荐两步筛选程序：首先用离子捕获/ QSAR模型来预测基线毒性，然后使用来自体外系统的毒性比率进行调整。受体或血浆结合模型也有助于阐明IOCs的毒性。本篇综述的目的是帮助阐释IOCs的生态毒性，并提供其危害和风险评估的建议。     

Demonstration of sex pheromones in the predaceous diving beetle Rhantus suturalis (MacLeay 1825) (Dytiscidae)

Sex pheromones are used by a wide variety of species in terrestrial ecosystems. Much less is known about these pheromones in aquatic systems e.g., for diving beetles. To test the use of pheromones and visual signals for mate finding by the diving beetle Rhantus suturalis (MacLeay 1825), behavioral experiments were performed using three different types of vessels containing conspecific. In experiments with non-permeable glass flasks, which did not allow the diffusion of chemical substances, males and females did not stimulate any reaction by conspecific of either sex. In experiments with opaque but water permeable vessels, and in experiments with vessels made of finely woven steel, which allowed the perception of chemical as well as optical cues, male diving beetles were significantly attracted to females. Females were attracted to other females only in the last experiment, when simultaneously perceiving chemical and optical cues. These results indicate that R. suturalis females release sex pheromones to attract mating partners, which is the first experimental demonstration of pheromones in the Dytiscidae.     

Recovery of a freshwater wetland from chemical contamination after an oil spill

In March 2009, a cargo ship spilled 250 tons of heavy fuel oil off the Queensland coast of Australia. The pristine National Park Moreton Island, seven nautical miles to the east of the spill site, was most affected by the oil slick. Contamination of the island's shoreline was widespread, with freshwater wetlands particularly slow to recover as clean-up needed to be carefully managed to avoid damage to this sensitive ecosystem. During the clean-up process on Moreton Island a monitoring program was initiated using traditional chemical analysis in combination with bioanalytical techniques to assess the extent and variability in contamination at sites on the shoreline and freshwater wetlands. Water accommodated fractions (WAF) of oil residues from samples taken directly after the spill on the shoreline showed the same level of toxic potency as samples from the wetland while baseline-toxicity equivalent concentrations (baseline-TEQ) and 2,3,7,8-tetrachlorodibenzodioxin equivalent concentrations (TCDDEQ) were much lower in oil collected from the sandy beach. The umuC assay for genotoxicity and the E-SCREEN assay for estrogenic effects indicated the extracts were not genotoxic or estrogenic. PAH concentrations and toxicity in grab water samples were below detectable levels, however, extracts from time integrated silicone passive samplers deployed for several weeks at the contaminated sites gave measurable responses in the bioassays with TCDDEQ levels increased relative to the control site. The low levels of baseline-TEQ and TCDDEQ present after 8 months had further decreased 6 months later indicating satisfactory recovery of this pristine ecosystem after an oil spill.