Incorporating stakeholder decision support needs into an integrated regional Earth system model

A new modeling effort exploring the opportunities, constraints, and interactions between mitigation and adaptation at regional scale is utilizing stakeholder engagement in an innovative approach to guide model development and demonstration, including uncertainty characterization, to effectively inform regional decision making. This project, the integrated Regional Earth System Model (iRESM), employs structured stakeholder interactions and literature reviews to identify the most relevant adaptation and mitigation alternatives and decision criteria for each regional application of the framework. The information is used to identify important model capabilities and to provide a focus for numerical experiments. This paper presents the stakeholder research results from the first iRESM pilot region. The pilot region includes the Great Lakes Basin in the Midwest portion of the United States as well as other contiguous states. This geographic area (14 states in total) permits cohesive modeling of hydrologic systems while also providing strong gradients in climate, demography, land cover/land use, and energy supply and demand. The results from the stakeholder research indicate that, for this region, iRESM should prioritize addressing adaptation alternatives in the water resources, urban infrastructure, and agriculture sectors, including water conservation, expanded water quality monitoring, altered reservoir releases, lowered water intakes, urban infrastructure upgrades, increased electric power reserves in urban areas, and land use management/crop selection changes. For mitigation in this region, the stakeholder research implies that iRESM should focus on policies affecting the penetration of renewable energy technologies, and the costs and effectiveness of energy efficiency, bioenergy production, wind energy, and carbon capture and sequestration.     

Observed LATCH use and misuse characteristics of child restraint systems in seven states

INTRODUCTION: Although the LATCH System (Lower Anchors and Tethers for Children) holds the promise of simplifying the installation of a child restraint system (CRS) to the vehicle's seat, many drivers transporting young children have difficulties using this technology. This paper reports on an observation study of LATCH use and misuse. METHOD: Observations of approximately 1,000 children less than 5 years of age in CRSs, in the back seats of vehicles that were equipped with tether and lower anchors, in seven states. RESULTS: Tethers were used for 51% of the children when the forward-facing CRS had tether straps and the vehicle had tether anchors. Lower anchors were used for 58% of the children when the CRS had lower attachments and the vehicle had lower anchors. The most common tether and lower attachment misuses were loose tether straps (18% of cases) and loose lower attachment installation (30% of the cases), respectively. Vehicle safety belts were used in combination with lower attachments in 20% of all lower anchor installations. CONCLUSION: As more caregivers of young children drive vehicles equipped with LATCH, it will be important to promote the proper installation of CRSs using this technology. LATCH education messages must also emphasize that the lower anchors may not always be the safest choice for CRS attachment -- the safest attachment is the one that results in a tight fit and will be used correctly consistently.     

Implementation of Washington State's zero tolerance law: patterns of arrests, dispositions, and recidivism

OBJECTIVES: Zero tolerance (ZT) laws have been effective in reducing alcohol-related crashes among underage drivers. However, enforcement in some states has not been rigorous, and ZT offenses may not be viewed as serious offenses. On July 1, 1994, the state of Washington implemented a ZT law that allowed police to request a test for alcohol on suspicion of either a ZT or driving-under-the-influence (DUI) offense. The present study examined effects of the ZT law on arrests and case dispositions among underage offenders as a function of blood alcohol concentration (BAC) and post-law patterns of recidivism. METHODS: Times-series analyses examined the effects of the ZT law on trends in arrests of underage drivers between 1991 and 1999. Based on arrest records matched with driver's license records, the effects of the law on dispositions of alcohol-related offenses among underage drivers were examined, and rates of recidivism among underage offenders were examined for the period following the ZT law. RESULTS: There was a substantial increase in arrests of underage drivers beginning immediately after implementation of the ZT law, especially among drivers with low BACs. The types of court or administrative dispositions received by underage offenders changed markedly after the ZT law was implemented. Underage offenders with lower BACs became far more likely to receive alcohol-related convictions and/or license suspensions. However, the percentage of underage offenders with higher BACs receiving DUI convictions declined as some of these offenders received the lesser ZT disposition. After the ZT law, underage offenders with BACs of 0.10 g/dL or higher were more likely to recidivate than those with lower BACs, but appreciable proportions of drivers were re-arrested for another alcohol offense, whatever the BAC and however they were penalized. CONCLUSIONS: Implementation of Washington's law indicates that a ZT law can increase the likelihood that an underage person will be sanctioned for drinking and driving. However, recidivism remains an issue as more than one in four underage drivers arrested with low BACs subsequently were re-arrested.     

A new THOR shoulder design: a comparison with volunteers, the Hybrid III, and THOR NT

OBJECTIVE: Since the shoulders are rarely seriously injured in frontal or oblique collisions, they have been given low priority in the development of frontal impact crash test dummies. The shoulder complex geometry and its kinematics are of vital importance for the overall dummy kinematics. The shoulder complex also influences the risk of the safety belt slipping off the shoulder in oblique forward collisions. The first aim of this study was to develop a new 50th percentile male THOR shoulder design, while the second was to compare the new shoulder, mounted on a THOR NT dummy, with volunteer, THOR NT, and Hybrid III range of motion and stiffness data. The third aim was to test the repeatability of the new shoulder during dynamic testing and to see how the design behaves with respect to belt slippage in a 45 degrees far-side collision. METHODS: The new 50th percentile THOR shoulder design was developed with the aid of a shell model of the seated University of Michigan Transportation Research Institute (UMTRI) 50th percentile male with coordinates for joints and bony landmarks (Schneider et al., 1983). The new shoulder design has human-like bony landmarks for the acromion and coracoid processes. The clavicle curvature and length are also made similar to that of a male human, as is the range of motion in the anterior-posterior, superior-inferior, and medial-lateral directions. The new shoulder design was manufactured and tested under the same conditions that T?rnvall et al. (2005b) used to compare the shoulder range of motion for the volunteers, Hybrid III, and THOR Alpha. The new design was also tested in two dynamic test configurations: the first was a 0 degrees full-frontal test and the second was a 45 degrees far-side test. The dummy tests were conducted with an R-16 seat with a three-point belt, the Delta V was 27.0+/-0.5 km/h and the maximum peak acceleration was approximately 14.6+/-0.5 g for each test. RESULTS: A new shoulder design with geometry close to that of humans was developed to be retrofitted to the THOR NT dummy. The results showed that the range of motion for the new shoulder complex during static loading was larger by at least a factor of three, for the maximum load (200 N/arm), than that of either the Hybrid III or the THOR NT; this means it was more similar to the volunteers' range of motion. It was observed that the THOR NT with the new shoulder did not slide out of the shoulder belt during a far-side collision. The performance of the new shoulder was reasonably repeatable and stable during both the static tests and the sled tests. CONCLUSION: A new shoulder for the THOR NT has been designed and developed, and data from static range of motion tests and sled tests indicate that the new shoulder complex has the potential to function in a more human-like manner on the THOR dummy.     

Pedestrian fatalities, Atlanta Metropolitan Statistical Area and United States, 2000-2004

Motor vehicle crashes killed almost 5,000 pedestrians in 2005 in the United States. Pedestrian risk may be higher in areas characterized by urban sprawl. From 2000 to 2004, pedestrian fatality rates declined in the United States, but the Atlanta metropolitan statistical area did not experience the same decline. Pedestrian fatality rates for males, Hispanics, and the 15–34 and 35–54 year age groups were higher in Atlanta than in the United States overall. Pedestrian safety interventions should be targeted to high-risk populations and localized pedestrian settings.     

Land use change and forestry climate project regional baselines: a review

Climate change programs have largely used the project-specific approach for estimating baseline emissions of climate mitigation projects. This approach is subjective, lacks transparency, can generate inconsistent baselines for similar projects, and is likely to have high transaction costs. The use of regional baselines, which partially addresses these issues, has been reported in the literature on forestry and agriculture projects, and in greenhouse gas (GHG) mitigation program guidance for them (e.g., WRI/WBCSD GHG Project Protocol, USDOE’s 1605(b) registry, UNFCCC’s Clean Development Mechanism). This paper provides an assessment of project-specific and regional baselines approaches for key baseline tasks, using project and program examples. The regional experience to date is then synthesized into generic steps that are referred to as Stratified Regional Baselines (SRB). Regional approaches generally, and SRB in particular explicitly acknowledge the heterogeneity of carbon density, land use change, and other key baseline driver variables across a landscape. SRB focuses on providing guidance on how to stratify lands into parcels with relatively homogeneous characteristics to estimate conservative baselines within a GHG assessment boundary, by applying systematic methods to determine the boundary and time period for input data.

An abbreviated alternatives assessment process for product designers: a children’s furniture manufacturing case study

Alternatives assessment is becoming increasingly popular to evaluate the potential environmental and human health hazards of materials. A three step process was used to identify and evaluate alternative products for a children's furniture manufacturer. An alternatives assessment framework was developed to analyze alternative mattresses. The framework specifically addresses those environmental and safety attributes applicable to the product and the product components in accordance with the product’s intended use. The result of the assessment allowed the manufacturer to select the most environmentally friendly alternative and eliminate polyvinyl chloride from their product.     

Minimizing leakage from a smelter off-gas system by enhanced control

The off-gas handling system is a vital component of a smelter and it is essential that it operates in accordance with environmental regulations. A key feature of the off-gas management system is maintaining a slightly negative system pressure to prevent gas leakage, such as SO₂, out into the work and external environments. To enhance sustainable development, there is also growing interest in capturing and reusing the significant amount of heat and CO₂ contained within off-gas. The potential incorporation of heat and CO₂ recovery systems places importance on enhancing control to minimize the risk of both gas leakage and disturbance of the smelting process. With these requirements in mind, an easily implementable feedforward control enhancement to existing control schemes is proposed to help provide improved performance.     

Activity ratios of 137Cs, 90Sr and 239+240Pu in environmental samples

Both global and Chernobyl fallout have resulted in environmental contamination with radionuclides such as 137Cs, 90Sr and 239+240Pu. In environmental samples, 137Cs and 239+240Pu can be divided into the contributions of either source, if also the isotopes 134Cs and 238Pu are measurable, based on the known isotopic ratios in global and Chernobyl fallout. No analogous method is available for 90Sr. The activity ratios of Sr to Cs and Pu, respectively, are known for the actual fallout mainly from air filter measurements; but due to the high mobility of Sr in the environment, compared to Cs and Pu, these ratios generally do not hold for the inventory many years after deposition. In this paper we suggest a method to identify the mean contributions of global and Chernobyl fallout to total Sr in soil, sediment and cryoconite samples from Alpine and pre-Alpine regions of Austria, based on a statistical evaluation of Sr/Cs/Pu radionuclide activity ratios. Results are given for Sr:Cs, Sr:Pu and Cs:Pu ratios. Comparison with fallout data shows a strong depletion of Sr against Cs and Pu.     

Probabilistic risk assessment for long-range atmospheric transport of radionuclides

A simplified means of probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) for long-range atmospheric transport based on a K-diffusion model is presented. In a case study, model parameters are estimated by comparing with the results of long-range atmospheric dispersion model calculations using one-year numerical weather prediction model data. It is found that the estimated ensemble mean provides a reasonable first approximation to the total dry and wet deposition from the one-year continuous release.