Air emission inventories in North America: a critical assessment

Although emission inventories are the foundation of air quality management and have supported substantial improvements in North American air quality, they have a number of shortcomings that can potentially lead to ineffective air quality management strategies. Major reductions in the largest emissions sources have made accurate inventories of previously minor sources much more important to the understanding and improvement of local air quality. Changes in manufacturing processes, industry types, vehicle technologies, and metropolitan infrastructure are occurring at an increasingly rapid pace, emphasizing the importance of inventories that reflect current conditions. New technologies for measuring source emissions and ambient pollutant concentrations, both at the point of emissions and from remote platforms, are providing novel approaches to collecting data for inventory developers. Advances in information technologies are allowing data to be shared more quickly, more easily, and processed and compared in novel ways that can speed the development of emission inventories. Approaches to improving quantitative measures of inventory uncertainty allow air quality management decisions to take into account the uncertainties associated with emissions estimates, providing more accurate projections of how well alternative strategies may work. This paper discusses applications of these technologies and techniques to improve the accuracy, timeliness, and completeness of emission inventories across North America and outlines a series of eight recommendations aimed at inventory developers and air quality management decision-makers to improve emission inventories and enable them to support effective air quality management decisions for the foreseeable future.     

Pyrene mineralization by Mycobacterium sp. strain KMS in a barley rhizosphere

To determine whether the soil Mycobacterium isolate KMS would mineralize pyrene under rhizosphere conditions, a microcosm system was established to collect radioactive carbon dioxide released from the labeled polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbon. Microcosms were designed as sealed, flow-through systems that allowed the growth of plants. Experiments were conducted to evaluate mineralization of 14C-labeled pyrene in a sand amended with the polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons degrading Mycobacterium isolate KMS, barley plants, or barley plants with roots colonized by isolate KMS. Mineralization was quantified by collecting the 14CO2 produced from 14C-labeled pyrene at intervals during the 10-d incubation period. Roots and foliar tissues were examined for 14C incorporation. Mass balances for microcosms were determined through combustion of sand samples and collection and quantification of 14CO2 evolved from radiolabeled pyrene. No pyrene mineralization was observed in the sterile control systems. Greater release of 14CO2 was observed in the system with barley colonized by KMS than in microcosms containing just the bacterium inoculum or sterile barley plants. These findings suggest that phytostimulation of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons mineralization could be applied in remediation schemes.     

Habitat Acquisition Strategies for Grassland Birds in an Urbanizing Landscape

Habitat protection for grassland birds is an important component of open space land acquisition in suburban Chicago. We use optimization decision models to develop recommendations for land protection and analyze tradeoffs between alternative goals. One goal is to acquire (and restore if necessary) as much grassland habitat as possible for a given budget. Because a viable habitat for grassland birds consists of a relatively large core area with additional parcels of grassland habitat nearby, the second goal is to minimize total pairwise distance between newly protected parcels and large existing reserves. We also use the concept of an effective grassland habitat area, which considers influences that neighboring land covers have on grassland habitat suitability. We analyze how the parcels selected for protection change as total protected effective area is traded off against total distance. As area is weighted more heavily, the selected parcels are scattered and unconnected. As total distance is weighted more heavily, the selected parcels coalesce around core reserves but protect less area. The differences in selected parcels as we change the objective function weights are caused by the differences in price per unit of effective habitat area across parcels. Parcels located in close proximity to the existing cores have relatively high prices per hectare of effective grassland area as a consequence of high restoration costs and adverse influences from roads, urban areas and/or forestland. As a result, these parcels have lower priority for selection when the area objective is weighted more heavily for a given budget.     

Exposure of migrant bald eagles to lead in prairie Canada

The prevalence of elevated exposure to lead was assessed in a migrant population of bald eagles (Haliaeetus leucocephalus) at a waterfowl staging area in the southern portion of the Canadian prairies, from September to November, 1992-1995. Of 103 eagles, 8% exhibited blood lead (PbB) concentrations suggestive of elevated exposure to lead (> or = 0.200 microgram ml-1 wet wt.). PbB concentrations in eagles from the study area ranged from < 0.01 to 0.585 microgram ml-1, while those of nestling eagles from a reference site indicated normal or background exposure (< 0.01 microgram ml-1). No differences in the prevalence of elevated exposure were detected among genders or age classes (0.5- and > or = 1.5-year-old birds) (P > 0.05). The prevalence of elevated exposure was significantly greater in November than in October (21.7 vs. 3.8%) (all years: chi 2Y = 5.75, P = 0.017). Eagles with shotshell pellets in the digestive tract did not have accompanying high PbB concentrations. The prevalence of elevated lead exposure in this study was low in comparison to other areas in North America. Potential biases in the trapping technique as they relate to interpreting the results are addressed.     

Time-dependence of the radiocaesium contamination of roe deer: measurement and modelling

In spruce forest and peat bog, the migration of 137Cs from soil to plants, fungi, roe deer and consumers has been surveyed. In spruce forest the 137Cs activity concentration in roe deer decreases slowly with time and has superimposed periodic maxima in autumn which are correlated with the mushroom season. The decrease with time can be described by an effective half-life of 3.5 yr caused by a fraction of the 137Cs in the soil becoming unavailable for green grazing plants with time. The additional transfer of 137Cs into roe deer meat during the mushroom season depends on precipitation in July, August and September which also determines the yield of fungi in autumn. Our model confirms the assumption that fungi also have access to a fraction of the 137Cs in the soil which is unavailable for green plants. On peat bog the 137Cs activity concentration in roe deer is higher than in spruce forest and its effective half-life is about 17 yr, due to reversible binding of 137Cs to organic matter in the peat bog.     

Nutrient and sediment losses under simulated rainfall following manure incorporation by different methods

Incorporation of manure into cultivated soils is generally recommended to minimize nutrient losses. A 3-yr study was conducted to evaluate sediment and nutrient losses with different tillage methods (moldboard plow, heavy-duty cultivator, double disk, and no-incorporation) for incorporation of beef cattle manure in a silage barley (Hordeum vulgare L.) cropping system. Runoff depths, sediment losses, and surface and subsurface nutrient transfers were determined from manured and unmanured field plots at Lethbridge, Alberta, Canada. A Guelph rainfall simulator was used to generate 30 min of runoff. Sediment losses among our tillage treatments (137.4-203.6 kg ha(-1)) were not significantly different due to compensating differences in runoff depths. Mass losses of total phosphorus (TP) and total nitrogen (TN) in surface runoff were greatest from the no-incorporation (NI) treatments, with reductions in TP loads of 14% for double disk (DD), 43% for cultivator (CU), and 79% for moldboard plow (MP) treatments. Total N load reductions in 2002 were 26% for DD, 70% for CU, and 95% for MP treatments compared to the NI treatments. Nutrient losses following incorporation of manure with the DD or CU methods were not significantly different from the NI treatments. Manure treatments generally had lower runoff depths and sediment losses, and higher phosphorus and nitrogen losses than the control treatments. Subsurface concentrations of NH4-N, NO3-N, and TN were greatest from the MP treatments, whereas subsurface phosphorus concentrations were not affected by tillage method. Tillage with a cultivator or double disk minimized combined surface and subsurface nutrient losses immediately after annual manure applications.     

Assessing breeding potential of peregrine falcons based on chlorinated hydrocarbon concentrations in prey

Peregrine falcons (Falco peregrinus) now breed successfully in most areas of North America from which they were previously extirpated. The loss during the mid-part of the last century of many of the world's peregrine populations was largely a consequence of impaired reproduction caused by the effects of DDE on eggshell quality and embryo hatchability. Population recovery has been attributed to re-introduction efforts, coupled with regulatory restrictions on the use of organochlorine pesticides. Peregrines have not returned to breed in some areas, such as the Okanagan Valley of British Columbia. That region has been extensively planted in fruit orchards which were treated annually with DDT during the early 1950s to the 1970s. Ongoing contamination of avian species, including potential peregrine prey, inhabiting orchards has been documented. In response to an initiative to release peregrines around the city of Kelowna in the Okanagan Valley, we collected potential peregrine prey species and analyzed whole bodies for chlorinated hydrocarbon residues. We used a simple bioaccumulation model to predict concentrations of DDE in peregrine eggs using concentrations in prey and estimates of dietary makeup as input. Peregrines would be expected to breed successfully only if they fed on a diet primarily of doves. Feeding on as little as 10% of other species such as starlings, robins, gulls and magpies would produce DDE concentrations in peregrine eggs greater than the threshold of 15 mg/kg. We also estimated the critical concentration of DDE in total prey to be about 0.5 mg/kg, one half of the previous most conservative criterion for peregrine prey. Concentrations of dieldrin and PCBs in peregrine prey are less than suggested critical levels.     

Hydrologic Modeling Uncertainty Resulting From Land Cover Misclassification1

Abstract: A stochastic, spatially explicit method for assessing the impact of land cover classification error on distributed hydrologic modeling is presented. One‐hundred land cover realizations were created by systematically altering the North American Landscape Characterization land cover data according to the dataset’s misclassification matrix. The matrix indicates the probability of errors of omission in land cover classes and is used to assess the uncertainty in hydrologic runoff simulation resulting from parameter estimation based on land cover. These land cover realizations were used in the GIS‐based Automated Geospatial Watershed Assessment tool in conjunction with topography and soils data to generate input to the physically‐based Kinematic Runoff and Erosion model. Uncertainties in modeled runoff volumes resulting from these land cover realizations were evaluated in the Upper San Pedro River basin for 40 watersheds ranging in size from 10 to 100 km² under two rainfall events of differing magnitudes and intensities. Simulation results show that model sensitivity to classification error varies directly with respect to watershed scale, inversely to rainfall magnitude and are mitigated or magnified by landscape variability depending on landscape composition.     

A new approach to propellant formulation: minimizing life-cycle costs through science-based design

The traditional approach to developing propellants for specific gun applications relies heavily on trial and error. Candidate formulations must be made in small quantities and subjected to burning-rate measurements and small-scale vulnerability assessments. If the properties of these candidates fail to meet expectations, the process must be repeated. This approach, while historically unavoidable, is obviously inefficient in time and expense, but it also can generate considerable waste streams associated with unsuccessful formulations. With added considerations of life-cycle costs including environmental impact at all stages of development, use, and disposal, this traditional approach becomes increasingly unworkable. In this report a new approach is proposed which makes maximal use of scientific understanding embodied in models during the early phases of the propellant-development cycle. Through simple simulations, it is shown that this strategy can have a significant impact on the overall costs of the development process. In analogy to the DOE program to convert the nuclear-weapon stewardship from testing-based to science-based, we term the new approach "science-based design." It is argued that the modeling contribution to the propellant-development process is most efficiently implemented by subjecting candidate formulations to a hierarchy of models of different sophistication and input-data requirements, reserving the most rigorous models (usually the most data-intensive and least robust) for the most promising candidates. This new approach will require concentration and leveraging of resources toward the most critical early-phase development steps, but it may be the only credible strategy to reconcile the need for higher-performance weapons with the reality of declining resources.