Best‐practice recommendations for estimating interaction effects using meta‐analysis

One of the key advantages of meta‐analysis (i.e., a quantitative literature review) over a narrative literature review is that it allows for formal tests of interaction effects—namely, whether the relationship between two variables is contingent upon the value of another (moderator) variable. Interaction effects play a central role in organizational science research because they highlight boundary conditions of a theory: Conditions under which relationships change in strength and/or direction. This article describes procedures for estimating interaction effects using meta‐analysis, distills the technical literature for a general readership of organizational science researchers, and includes specific best‐practice recommendations regarding actions researchers can take before and after data collection to improve the accuracy of substantive conclusions regarding interaction effects investigated meta‐analytically. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Species' traits predict phenological responses to climate change in butterflies

How do species' traits help identify which species will respond most strongly to future climate change? We examine the relationship between species' traits and phenology in a well-established model system for climate change, the U.K. Butterfly Monitoring Scheme (UKBMS). Most resident U.K. butterfly species have significantly advanced their dates of first appearance during the past 30 years. We show that species with narrower larval diet breadth and more advanced overwintering stages have experienced relatively greater advances in their date of first appearance. In addition, species with smaller range sizes have experienced greater phenological advancement. Our results demonstrate that species' traits can be important predictors of responses to climate change, and they suggest that further investigation of the mechanisms by which these traits influence phenology may aid in understanding species' responses to current and future climate change.     

Synchronous aggregated pseudo-copulation of the sea star <Emphasis Type="Italic">Archaster angulatus</Emphasis> Müller &; Troschel, 1842 (Echinodermata: Asteroidea) and its reproductive cycle in south-western Australia

Mass individual pairing or pseudo-copulation of the sea star Archaster angulatus was observed in November and December 2009, suggesting a late-spring/summer spawning period for this species on the west coast of Australia. Detailed measurements were made on the second of these occasions. Density of sea stars was 1.11 per m² and 68.5% were in mating pairs. Copulating pairs were mostly male on female, occasionally male on male. There was no difference in size between males and females in mating pairs. No evidence was found to indicate mating and spawning is coincident with lunar or tidal cycles. Females outnumbered males by more than 20%, but the difference in sex ratio was not statistically significant. Analysis of the reproductive cycle revealed that gonad indices reached their peak in October and declined from then until January. Histological sections of gonads confirmed that sea stars are in peak reproductive condition in October and November and are fully spent by January. Males have a much lower (ca. 1/3rd) gonad index than females when each are in peak reproductive condition, the second lowest recorded for any sea star. Pyloric caecae indices showed little annual variation and monthly averages of just 3–4% are among the lowest ever recorded for an asteroid. It is suggested that these characteristics are associated with the copulatory behaviour of the deposit feeding A. angulatus, enabling the species to maintain a high level of fertilisation success while also minimising the allocation of energy to gonad development in habitats with low or variable food availability. However, it is still difficult to explain why a species which ensures a high level of fertilisation by pseudo-copulation also does this en masse and synchronously. One hypothesis is that competition for males and the benefits of having eggs fertilised by multiple males favours both synchrony and aggregation.     

Mitochondrial DNA sequence variation in spiny lobsters: population expansion,panmixia, and divergence

To investigate population differentiation in a comparative and historical context, segments of the mitochondrial cytochrome c oxidase subunit I gene and the control region were sequenced in Panulirus argus from nine sites along approximately 1,500 km of the Northern Caribbean Sea (n = 326) and analyzed with respect to available panulirid data. A mismatch analysis and Fu’s F _S test uncovered a signature of historical population expansion around the time of the Last Glacial Maximum. Significant population structure was not detected in the area. The data supported a hypothesis of panmixia resulting from ongoing larval transport by ocean currents and historical population expansion. Despite high intraspecific divergence levels at COI within Panulirus argus and several other Panulirus species, genetic species identification through DNA barcoding was feasible using either a modified distance threshold or a character-based approach.     

Estimating metabolic rate for butadiene at steady state using a Bayesian physiologically-based pharmacokinetic model

In a study of 133 volunteer subjects, demographic, physiologic and pharmacokinetic data through exposure to 1,3-Butadiene (BD) were collected in order to estimate the percentage of BD concentration metabolized at steady state, and to determine whether this percentage varies across gender, racial, and age groups. During the 20 min of continuous exposure to 2 parts per million (ppm) of BD, five measurements of exhaled concentration were made on each subject. In the following 40 min washout period, another five measurements were collected. A Bayesian hierarchical compartmental physiologically-based pharmacokinetic model (PKPB) was used. Using prior information on the model parameters, Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) simulation was conducted to obtain posterior distributions. The overall estimate of the mean percent of BD metabolized at steady state was 12.7% (95% credible interval: 7.7–17.8%). There was no significant difference in gender with males having a mean of 13.5%, and females 12.3%. Among the racial groups, Hispanic (13.9%), White (13.0%), Asian (12.1%), and Black (10.9%), the significant difference came from the difference between Black and Hispanic with a 95% credible interval from −5.63 to −0.30%. Those older than 30 years had a mean of 12.2% versus 12.9% for the younger group; although this was not a statistically significant difference. Given a constant inhalation input of 2 ppm, at steady state, the overall mean exhaled concentration was estimated to be 1.75ppm (95% credible interval: 1.64–1.84). An equivalent parameter, first-order metabolic rate constant, was also estimated and found to be consistent with the percent of BD metabolized at steady state across gender, race, and age strata.     

Application of the ELOHA Framework to Regulated Rivers in the Upper Tennessee River Basin: A Case Study

In order for habitat restoration in regulated rivers to be effective at large scales, broadly applicable frameworks are needed that provide measurable objectives and contexts for management. The Ecological Limits of Hydrologic Alteration (ELOHA) framework was created as a template to assess hydrologic alterations, develop relationships between altered streamflow and ecology, and establish environmental flow standards. We tested the utility of ELOHA in informing flow restoration applications for fish and riparian communities in regulated rivers in the Upper Tennessee River Basin (UTRB). We followed the steps of ELOHA to generate univariate relationships between altered flows and ecology within the UTRB. By comparison, we constructed multivariate models to determine improvements in predictive capacity with the addition of non-flow variables. We then determined whether those relationships could predict fish and riparian responses to flow restoration in the Cheoah River, a regulated system within the UTRB. Although ELOHA provided a robust template to construct hydrologic information and predict hydrology for ungaged locations, our results do not suggest that univariate relationships between flow and ecology (step 4, ELOHA process) can produce results sufficient to guide flow restoration in regulated rivers. After constructing multivariate models, we successfully developed predictive relationships between flow alterations and fish/riparian responses. In accordance with model predictions, riparian encroachment displayed consistent decreases with increases in flow magnitude in the Cheoah River; however, fish richness did not increase as predicted 4 years after restoration. Our results suggest that altered temperature and substrate and the current disturbance regime may have reduced opportunities for fish species colonization. Our case study highlights the need for interdisciplinary science in defining environmental flows for regulated rivers and the need for adaptive management approaches once flows are restored.     

Intraspecific mimicry and status signals in juvenile African penguins

Summary Observations of resting groups of African penguins Spheniscus demersus on land showed that adults were more aggressive towards juveniles than towards adults. Head coloration was important in triggering this aggression. Adults probably discriminate against juveniles to exclude inexperienced birds from co-operative feeding groups and thus maximize their own energetic returns. There was a disproportionately low frequency of penguin groups at sea containing both adult and juvenile birds. Almost a quarter of juvenile penguins moulted a variable amount of their heads into adult plumage at sea. This reduced the amount of aggression received in proportion to the degree of head moult. Head moult probably occurs in only the fittest juveniles. Birds which moult can join adult feeding groups where communal feeding enhances success. The costs of moulting at sea prevent the occurrence of head moulting in the entire population of juveniles.     

Planning for robust reserve networks using uncertainty analysis

Planning land-use for biodiversity conservation frequently involves computer-assisted reserve selection algorithms. Typically such algorithms operate on matrices of species presence–absence in sites, or on species-specific distributions of model predicted probabilities of occurrence in grid cells. There are practically always errors in input data—erroneous species presence–absence data, structural and parametric uncertainty in predictive habitat models, and lack of correspondence between temporal presence and long-run persistence. Despite these uncertainties, typical reserve selection methods proceed as if there is no uncertainty in the data or models. Having two conservation options of apparently equal biological value, one would prefer the option whose value is relatively insensitive to errors in planning inputs. In this work we show how uncertainty analysis for reserve planning can be implemented within a framework of information-gap decision theory, generating reserve designs that are robust to uncertainty. Consideration of uncertainty involves modifications to the typical objective functions used in reserve selection. Search for robust-optimal reserve structures can still be implemented via typical reserve selection optimization techniques, including stepwise heuristics, integer-programming and stochastic global search.