Primary databases for forest ecosystem management-examples from Ontario and possibilities for Canada: NatGRID

This paper identifies some scientific impediments to ecosystem management and describes bio-physical databases required to help systematically and empirically address the ecological sustainability challenge. Examples are drawn from ongoing work in Ontario. This work has implications for efforts in ecological land classification, landscape ecology, more efficient locating of research and monitoring plots, wildlife management and ultimately trade-off analyses. We conclude with the recommendation that the key primary databases, as currently evolving for Ontario, could and should be developed nationally, thereby creating a NatGRID database, i.e., Nationally Georeferenced Resource Information for Decision-making. NatGRID could be used to help address, in a more quantitative manner, fundamental questions regarding ecological sustainability and trade-offs in forest management.     

A microcomputer-based emergency response system*

A microcomputer-based system was developed to provide local officials responsible for disaster management with assistance during the crucial period immediately following a disaster, a period when incorrect decisions could have an adverse impact on the surrounding community.
While the paper focuses on a potential disaster resulting from an accident at a commercial nuclear power generating facility, the system can be applied to other disastrous situations. Decisions involving evacuation, shelter and the deployment of resources must be made in response to floods, earthquakes, accidents in the transportation of hazardous materials, and hurricanes to name a few examples.
As a decision aid, the system was designed to enhance data display by presenting the data in the form of representations (i.e. road maps, evacuation routes, etc.) as well as in list or tabular form. The potential impact of the event (i.e. the release of radioactive material) was displayed in the form of a cloud, representing the dispersion of the radioactive material. In addition, an algorithm was developed to assist the manager in assigning response resources to demands.
The capability for modelling the impact of a disaster is discussed briefly, with reference to a system installed in the communities surrounding the Indian Point nuclear power plant in New York State.
Results demonstrate both the technical feasibility of incorporating microcomputers indecision support systems for radiological emergency response, and the acceptance of such systems by those public officials responsible for implementing the response plans.     

EFFECT OF PRICE ON THE RESIDENTIAL DEMAND FOR WATER WITHIN AN AGENCY1

ABSTRACT: This paper develops a model that can be used to forecast the residential elasticity of demand for water within a district. Long-term water conservation programs and revenue and cost decisions hinge crucially on a determination of this elasticity. This study then pools cross-sectional (census) and time series data to generate elasticity forecasts for the Oakland urban area.     

ECOSYSTEM MODELING OF A FORESTED RIVER BASIN1

ABSTRACT: A present concern in decision making processes for forest land use is the environmental effects of land use activities on water, air, and the land itself. Criteria for evaluating the magnitude and detriment of environmental impacts are not definite since it is often difficult to isolate a particular activity as the cause of a particular impact. Instead, interactions between various forest practices must be considered along with their integrated impacts. In order to provide an effective decision tool, the College of Forest Resources, University of Washington, is modeling the forest ecosystem of the Snohomish River Basin located in the Cascade Mountains of western Washington. The project consists of a general system model comprised of subsystem models dealing with product conversion processes, forest production processes, recreation supply processes, wildlife and fisheries supply processes, and the interactions of these processes with water and the atmosphere. The system model is interfaced with a computerized multiple player management game which enables land managers, manufacturing managers, and regulation agency personnel to make management decisions and respond to indications of lack of environmental control. Responses of the hydrologic system to various management decisions are simulated by the water subsystem model. The responses being considered include surface flow quantity and water quality. The model emphasizes the monitoring of non-point as well as point source impacts rather than predicting short-term hydrographs. The significance of impacts vary with land use patterns and the goals of the game player. Therefore, the model has flexible resolution and is able to predict hydrologic conditions for both large and small scale. The water subsystem model responds to management decisions by interpreting the effects of management options selected by game players for 40-acre cells within the Basin. The model then determines which streams are immediately affected, defines the watersheds contributing to these streams, and extracts from a resource data bank the information needed to define model parameters. Using these parameters and precipitation inputs, mean flow discharge on a montly and annual basis is calculated for the impactcd sub watersheds as well as 21 major watersheds of the Basin. Water quality responses predicted for these watersheds include suspended sediment concentration, temperature increases due to stream exposure, dissolved oxygen concentrations, the effects of fertilization on nitrogen content, biocide and herbicide effects, and residues from product conversion processes.     

Prenatal incision of ureterocele causing bladder outlet obstruction: a multicenter case series

We reviewed data from a cohort of fetuses with ureterocele diagnosed and operated prenatally in four fetal therapy centers. Inclusion criteria were (1) ureterocele confirmed on detailed fetal ultrasound examination, (2) absence of additional fetal malformations, and (3) fetal intervention to decompress the ureterocele with local institutional review boards' approval. Data on sonographic follow-up, obstetrical, neonatal outcome, and postnatal evaluation were collected. Ten cases of prenatally treated ureterocele are described. Six cases benefited from a fetoscopy for laser incision and decompression, two cases had an ultrasound guided puncture before resorting to a fetoscopy with laser incision, one case had a balloon catheterization under ultrasound guidance, and one case had an ultrasound-guided opening of the ureterocele with a laser fiber passed through a 20-gauge needle. Mean gestational age at diagnosis was 21.6 GW. Two cases underwent termination of pregnancy. The remaining eight cases recovered normal amniotic fluid volume and delivered a liveborn child at a mean gestational age of 38.6 GW with normal creatinine levels during the first week of life. Prenatal incision provided complete treatment of severely obstructive ureteroceles in 80% of the cases and allowed improvement of urinary electrolytes, renal size and echogenicity, bladder filling in all survivors, and recollection of normal amniotic fluid volume, in case of oligoanhydramnios. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Antenatal corticosteroids and outcomes in gastroschisis: A multicenter retrospective cohort study

Objective

In gastroschisis, there is evidence to suggest that gut dysfunction develops secondary to bowel inflammation; we aimed to evaluate the effect of maternal antenatal corticosteroids administered for obstetric reasons on time to full enteral feeds in a multicenter cohort study of gastroschisis infants.

Methods

A three center, retrospective cohort study (1992-2013) with linked fetal/neonatal gastroschisis data was conducted. The primary outcome measure was time to full enteral feeds (a surrogate measure for bowel function) and secondary outcome measure was length of hospital stay. Analysis included Mann-Whitney and Cox regression.

Results

Of 500 patients included in the study, 69 (GA at birth 34 [25-38] weeks) received antenatal corticosteroids and 431 (GA at birth 37 [31-41] weeks) did not. Antenatal corticosteroids had no effect on the rate of reaching full feeds (Hazard ratio HR 1.0 [95% CI: 0.8-1.4]). However, complex gastroschisis (HR 0.3 [95% CI: 0.2-0.4]) was associated with an increased time to reach full feeds and later GA at birth (HR 1.1 per week increase in GA [95% CI: 1.1-1.2]) was associated with a decreased time to reach full feeds.

Conclusion

Maternal antenatal corticosteroids use, under current antenatal steroid protocols, in gastroschisis is not associated with an improvement in neonatal outcomes such as time to full enteral feeds or length of hospital stay.