Handling data uncertainties in event tree analysis

Event tree analysis (ETA) is an established risk analysis technique to assess likelihood (in a probabilistic context) of an accident. The objective data available to estimate the likelihood is often missing (or sparse), and even if available, is subject to incompleteness (partial ignorance) and imprecision (vagueness). Without addressing incompleteness and imprecision in the available data, ETA and subsequent risk analysis give a false impression of precision and correctness that undermines the overall credibility of the process. This paper explores two approaches to address data uncertainties, namely, fuzzy sets and evidence theory, and compares the results with Monte Carlo simulations. A fuzzy-based approach is used for handling imprecision and subjectivity, whereas evidence theory is used for handling inconsistent, incomplete and conflicting data. Application of these approaches in ETA is demonstrated using the example of an LPG release near a processing facility.     

Impacts of groundwater metal loads from bedrock fractures on water quality of a mountain stream

Acid mine drainage and metal loads from hardrock mines to surface waters is a significant problem in the western USA and many parts of the world. Mines often occur in mountain environments with fractured bedrock aquifers that serve as pathways for metals transport to streams. This study evaluates impacts from current and potential future groundwater metal (Cd, Cu, and Zn) loads from fractures underlying the Gilt Edge Mine, South Dakota, on concentrations in Strawberry Creek using existing flow and water quality data and simple mixing/dilution mass balance models. Results showed that metal loads from bedrock fractures to the creek currently contribute <1% of total loads. Even if background water quality is achieved upstream in Strawberry Creek, fracture metal loads would be <5%. Fracture loads could increase substantially and cause stream water quality standards exceedances once groundwater with elevated metals concentrations in the aquifer matrix migrates to the fractures and discharges to the stream. Potential future metal loads from an upstream fracture would contribute a small proportion of the total load relative to current loads in the stream. Cd has the highest stream concentrations relative to standards. Even if all stream water was treated to remove 90% of the Cd, the standard would still not be achieved. At a fracture farther downstream, the Cd standard can only be met if the upstream water is treated achieving a 90% reduction in Cd concentrations and the median stream flow is maintained.     

Reevaluation of ENCORE: support for the eutrophication threshold model for coral reefs

The results from the multimillion dollar Enrichment of Nutrients on Coral Reefs Experiment (ENCORE) on One Tree Island Reef (OTIR) suggest that increased nutrient loads to coral reefs will have little or no effect on the algal growth rates and, hence, on the associated effects that increased algal growth might have on the functioning and stability of coral reefs. However, a comparison of the concentrations of nutrients within the OTIR lagoon with the proposed nutrient threshold concentrations (NTC) for coral reefs suggests that all sites, including the control sites, were saturated with nutrients during ENCORE, and, hence, one would not expect to get any differences between treatments in the algal-growth related measurements. Thus, ENCORE results provide strong support for the proposed NTCs and support the ecological principle that algal productivity and, consequently, the functioning of coral reefs are sensitive to small changes in the background concentrations of nutrients. The principal conclusion of ENCORE, namely that the addition of nutrients did not cause the "pristine" OTIR to convert from coral communities to algal dominated reefs, is contrary to the fact that there was prolific macroalgal growth on the walls and crests of the experimental microatolls by the end of ENCORE.     

Reductive hydrogenation of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons catalyzed by metalloporphyrins

The hydrogenation of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) (naphthalene, anthracene, and phenanthrene) catalyzed by metalloporphyrins based on cobalt, nickel or iron was studied in aqueous solutions at room temperature and ambient pressure. Nickel porphyrin (P1) activated by nanosized zero-valent iron (nano-ZVI) and cobalt porphyrins (P2) and (P4) activated by titanium(III) citrate as the electron donor were demonstrated to be promising catalysts for the reductive hydrogenation of PAHs. In particular, partially saturated di-, tetra-, and octahydrogenated products were obtained for anthracene or phenanthrene using a nickel porphyrin activated by nano-ZVI, while naphthalene was transformed to tetralin. Systems containing cobalt porphyrins activated by titanium(III) citrate exhibited a high selectivity and activity toward hydrogenation of anthracene, producing 9,10-dihydroanthracene. However, no formation of hydrogenated hydrocarbons was observed from naphthalene or phenanthrene using cobalt porphyrins.     

Behavior and stability of organic contaminant droplets in aqueous solutions

The behavior of several hydrophobic organic compounds (HOCs) in water at concentrations close to and above their maximum solubility values was studied. For this purpose, solutions of benzene, toluene, xylene, trichloroethylene (TCE) and a mixture of them were prepared in excess in freshwater and in saltwater, and solution stability was examined. High organic concentrations were found to remain stable in both freshwater and saltwater. In saltwater, for example, toluene and xylene concentrations remained as high as 14 and 26 times their solubilities, respectively, over a period of 6 days, while in freshwater, their concentrations remained 8 and 30 times their solubilities over the same period. This phenomenon is attributed to the presence of stable organic droplets, which were observed using optical microscopy. In addition, the transport of HOC droplets through sand is demonstrated, using an experimental system consisting of a saltwater source reservoir connected by a porous inactive sand layer to a freshwater collector reservoir.     

Making a life in the physical sciences

As a practicing physical chemist, I argue that the challenges faced by the physical sciences have more parallels with organization science than it might first appear. While the physical sciences do represent a strong paradigm endeavor, many of the same issues that were raised in the article “Making a life in the field of organizational science” arise in physical sciences. An essential difference between the physical sciences and organization science is the essentially capital intensive nature of our research. Ironically, the constant pursuit of the requisite research dollars leads to substantial similarity between the fields. The state of academic physical sciences is analyzed in this context informed by the current state of research funding in the United States. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Solubility of toluene, benzene and TCE in high-microbial concentration systems

We report measurements of solubility limits for benzene, toluene, and TCE in systems that contain varying levels of biomass up to 0.13 g mL⁻¹ for TCE and 0.25 g mL⁻¹ for benzene and toluene. The solubility limit increased from 21 to 48 mM when biomass (in the form of yeast) was added to aqueous batch systems containing benzene. The toluene solubility limit increased from 4.9 to greater than 20 mM. For TCE, the solubility increased from 8 mM to more than 1000 mM. Solubility for TCE (trichloroethylene) was most heavily impacted by biomass levels, changing by two orders of magnitude as the microbial concentrations approach those in biofilms.     

Relating Background NO2 Concentrations in Air to Air Mass History Using Non-Parametric Regression Methods: Application at Two Background Sites in Ireland

The concentration of nitrogen dioxide (NO₂) in background air varies temporally and spatially and is influenced by meteorological and anthropogenic factors. Background concentrations used in local air quality modelling studies have a significant effect on the accuracy of the overall result and when based on short-term monitoring data, variation in concentrations with air mass history is often unaccounted for. The current paper presents a powerful tool for the quantification and separation of local and regional air mass effects on background air quality. The origin of and the regions traversed by an air mass prior to reaching a receptor has been modelled using HYsplit-4. Trajectories (between 12 and 96?h duration) were defined based on the frequency with which they passed into 16 predefined compass quadrants and each represented as a vector. Using this vector as the predictor variable and the background concentration as the response variable, non-parametric regression using a Gaussian kernel function was carried out. A graphical output indicated the trajectory direction of maximum NO₂ concentration, while allowing distinction to be made between spurious and true peaks. In all cases, air mass history was found to have a statistically significant effect on NO₂ concentrations. Incorporating emissions data into the analysis local and regional effects were separated and quantified. It was found that emissions in the UK and Europe have a significant effect on background NO₂ concentrations in Ireland and in some instances supersede domestic emissions. The methods can be used to identify source regions, separate local and regional effects and improve predictions of background concentrations based on limited monitoring data. In particular, the results highlight the importance of considering air mass history when assessing background concentration levels for use in local air quality modelling studies.