Global information sampling in the honey bee

Central to the question of task allocation in social insects is how workers acquire information. Patrolling is a curious behavior in which bees meander over the face of the comb inspecting cells. Several authors have suggested it allows bees to collect global information, but this has never been formally evaluated. This study explores this hypothesis by answering three questions. First, do bees gather information in a consistent manner as they patrol? Second, do they move far enough to get a sense of task demand in distant areas of the nest? And third, is patrolling a commonly performed task? Focal animal observations were used to address the first two predictions, while a scan sampling study was used to address the third. The results were affirmative for each question. While patrolling, workers collected information by performing periodic clusters of cell inspections. Patrolling bees not only traveled far enough to frequently change work zone; they often visited every part of the nest. Finally, the majority of the bees in the middle-age caste were shown to move throughout the nest over the course of a few hours in a manner suggestive of patrolling. Global information collection is contrary to much current theory, which assumes that workers respond to local information only. This study thus highlights the nonmutually exclusive nature of various information collection regimes in social insects.     

Use of 210Pb and 137Cs to simultaneously constrain ages and sources of post-dam sediments in the Cordeaux reservoir, Sydney, Australia

Environmental radionuclides can be employed as tracers of sediment movement and delivery to water bodies such as lakes and reservoirs. The chronologies of sediments that have accumulated in the Cordeaux reservoir in Sydney, Australia, were determined by the rate of change of (210)Pb(ex) with depth and indicate slow accretion in the reservoir. The ratio of enrichment of radionuclides in sediment cores to (210)Pb(ex) and (137)Cs concentrations in a reference soil sample within the Cordeaux catchment indicates that the dominant source of sediment in the Cordeaux reservoir is surface erosion (detachment and removal of sediment at depths less than 30 cm). However, in the Kembla Creek arm of the reservoir a mixture of sources was detected and includes sheet and rill erosion together with sub-soil contributions. Implications for the utility of these radionuclide sedimentation assessments, especially where samples are limited, are that well-constrained chronologies and sources of soil erosion are facilitated.     

Modeling population effects of the Deepwater Horizon oil spill on a long-lived species

The 2010 Deepwater Horizon (DWH) oil spill exposed common bottlenose dolphins (Tursiops truncatus) in Barataria Bay, Louisiana to heavy oiling that caused increased mortality and chronic disease and impaired reproduction in surviving dolphins. We conducted photographic surveys and veterinary assessments in the decade following the spill. We assigned a prognostic score (good, fair, guarded, poor, or grave) for each dolphin to provide a single integrated indicator of overall health, and we examined temporal trends in prognostic scores. We used expert elicitation to quantify the implications of trends for the proportion of the dolphins that would recover within their lifetime. We integrated expert elicitation, along with other new information, in a population dynamics model to predict the effects of observed health trends on demography. We compared the resulting population trajectory with that predicted under baseline (no spill) conditions. Disease conditions persisted and have recently worsened in dolphins that were presumably exposed to DWH oil: 78% of those assessed in 2018 had a guarded, poor, or grave prognosis. Dolphins born after the spill were in better health. We estimated that the population declined by 45% (95% CI 14–74) relative to baseline and will take 35 years (95% CI 18–67) to recover to 95% of baseline numbers. The sum of annual differences between baseline and injured population sizes (i.e., the lost cetacean years) was 30,993 (95% CI 6607–94,148). The population is currently at a minimum point in its recovery trajectory and is vulnerable to emerging threats, including planned ecosystem restoration efforts that are likely to be detrimental to the dolphins’ survival. Our modeling framework demonstrates an approach for integrating different sources and types of data, highlights the utility of expert elicitation for indeterminable input parameters, and emphasizes the importance of considering and monitoring long-term health of long-lived species subject to environmental disasters. Article impact statement: Oil spills can have long-term consequences for the health of long-lived species; thus, effective restoration and monitoring are needed.     

Evaluation of a Regional Monitoring Program’s Statistical Power to Detect Temporal Trends in Forest Health Indicators

Forests are socioeconomically and ecologically important ecosystems that are exposed to a variety of natural and anthropogenic stressors. As such, monitoring forest condition and detecting temporal changes therein remain critical to sound public and private forestland management. The National Parks Service’s Vital Signs monitoring program collects information on many forest health indicators, including species richness, cover by exotics, browse pressure, and forest regeneration. We applied a mixed-model approach to partition variability in data for 30 forest health indicators collected from several national parks in the eastern United States. We then used the estimated variance components in a simulation model to evaluate trend detection capabilities for each indicator. We investigated the extent to which the following factors affected ability to detect trends: (a) sample design: using simple panel versus connected panel design, (b) effect size: increasing trend magnitude, (c) sample size: varying the number of plots sampled each year, and (d) stratified sampling: post-stratifying plots into vegetation domains. Statistical power varied among indicators; however, indicators that measured the proportion of a total yielded higher power when compared to indicators that measured absolute or average values. In addition, the total variability for an indicator appeared to influence power to detect temporal trends more than how total variance was partitioned among spatial and temporal sources. Based on these analyses and the monitoring objectives of the Vital Signs program, the current sampling design is likely overly intensive for detecting a 5 % trend·year^?1 for all indicators and is appropriate for detecting a 1 % trend·year^?1 in most indicators.     

Effects of Flooding and Tamarisk Removal on Habitat for Sensitive Fish Species in the San Rafael River,Utah: Implications for Fish Habitat Enhancement and Future Restoration Efforts

Tamarisk removal is a widespread restoration practice on rivers in the southwestern USA, but impacts of removal on fish habitat have rarely been investigated. We examined whether tamarisk removal, in combination with a large spring flood, had the potential to improve fish habitat on the San Rafael River in southeastern Utah. We quantified habitat complexity and the distribution of wood accumulation in a tamarisk removal site (treated) and a non-removal site (untreated) in 2010, 1 year prior to a large magnitude and long-duration spring flood. We used aerial imagery to analyze river changes in the treated and untreated sites. Areas of channel movement were significantly larger in the treated site compared to the untreated site, primarily because of geomorphic characteristics of the channel, including higher sinuosity and the presence of an ephemeral tributary. However, results suggest that tamarisk removal on the outside of meander bends, where it grows directly on the channel margins, can promote increased channel movement. Prior to the flood, wood accumulations were concentrated in sections of channel where tamarisk had been removed. Pools, riffles, and backwaters occurred more frequently within 30 m upstream and downstream of wood accumulations compared to areas within 30 m of random points. Pools associated with wood accumulations were also significantly larger and deeper than those associated with random points. These results suggest that the combination of tamarisk removal and wood input can increase the potential for channel movement during spring floods thereby diversifying river habitat and improving conditions for native fish.     

Testing isosource: stable isotope analysis of a tropical fishery with diverse organic matter sources

We sampled consumers and organic matter sources (mangrove litter, freshwater swamp-forest litter, seagrasses, seagrass epiphytes, and marine particulate organic matter [MPOM]) from four estuaries on Kosrae, Federated States of Micronesia for stable isotope (sigma13C and sigma34S) analysis. Unique mixing solutions cannot be calculated in a dual-isotope, five-endmember scenario, so we tested IsoSource, a recently developed statistical procedure that calculates ranges in source contributions (i.e., minimum and maximum possible). Relatively high minimum contributions indicate significant sources, while low maxima indicate otherwise. Litter from the two forest types was isotopically distinguishable but had low average minimum contributions (0-8% for mangrove litter and 0% for swamp-forest litter among estuaries). Minimum contribution of MPOM was also low, averaging 0-13% among estuaries. Instead, local marine sources dominated contributions to consumers. Minimum contributions of seagrasses averaged 8-47% among estuaries (range 0-88% among species). Minimum contributions of seagrass epiphytes averaged 5-27% among estuaries (range 0-69% among species). IsoSource enabled inclusion of five organic matter sources in our dual-isotope analysis, ranking trophic importance as follows: seagrasses > seagrass epiphytes > MPOM > mangrove forest > freshwater swamp-forest. IsoSource is thus a useful step toward understanding which of multiple organic matter sources support food webs; more detailed work is necessary to identify unique solutions.     

General effects of climate change on Arctic fishes and fish populations

Projected shifts in climate forcing variables such as temperature and precipitation are of great relevance to arctic freshwater ecosystems and biota. These will result in many direct and indirect effects upon the ecosystems and fish present therein. Shifts projected for fish populations will range from positive to negative in overall effect, differ among species and also among populations within species depending upon their biology and tolerances, and will be integrated by the fish within their local aquascapes. This results in a wide range of future possibilities for arctic freshwater and diadromous fishes. Owing to a dearth of basic knowledge regarding fish biology and habitat interactions in the north, complicated by scaling issues and uncertainty in future climate projections, only qualitative scenarios can be developed in most cases. This limits preparedness to meet challenges of climate change in the Arctic with respect to fish and fisheries.     

The problem and promise of scale dependency in community phylogenetics

The problem of scale dependency is widespread in investigations of ecological communities. Null model investigations of community assembly exemplify the challenges involved because they typically include subjectively defined "regional species pools." The burgeoning field of community phylogenetics appears poised to face similar challenges. Our objective is to quantify the scope of the problem of scale dependency by comparing the phylogenetic structure of assemblages across contrasting geographic and taxonomic scales. We conduct phylogenetic analyses on communities within three tropical forests, and perform a sensitivity analysis with respect to two scaleable inputs: taxonomy and species pool size. We show that (1) estimates of phylogenetic overdispersion within local assemblages depend strongly on the taxonomic makeup of the local assemblage and (2) comparing the phylogenetic structure of a local assemblage to a species pool drawn from increasingly larger geographic scales results in an increased signal of phylogenetic clustering. We argue that, rather than posing a problem, "scale sensitivities" are likely to reveal general patterns of diversity that could help identify critical scales at which local or regional influences gain primacy for the structuring of communities. In this way, community phylogenetics promises to fill an important gap in community ecology and biogeography research.     

Dispersal limitation and environmental heterogeneity shape scale-dependent diversity patterns in plant communities

Understanding the large-scale distribution of species diversity requires distinguishing two of the primary factors that cause compositional differences: dispersal limitation and environmental variation. In a community with a naturally discontinuous spatial structure, we asked (1) at what scale(s) nonrandom variation in species composition occurs and (2) at what scale(s) such variation is associated with spatial separation, indicative of dispersal limitation, and at what scale(s) variation is associated with environmental heterogeneity? We sampled 50 seeps (small wetlands) on five serpentine outcrops. Using a randomization model, we showed that additive beta diversity (a measure of community dissimilarity) was lower than random within seeps and higher than random among both seeps and outcrops. Using Mantel tests, we showed that plant community dissimilarity, in both the full seep assemblage as well as in a subset of seep endemics, at the two larger scales was associated with different forms of environmental heterogeneity and, at the largest scale, was also associated with geographic distance. We conclude that diversity in this system is shaped by multiple scales of heterogeneity and by dispersal limitation at the largest scale.     

Determining older driver crash responsibility from police and insurance data

This study aimed to determine the extent to which older drivers can be considered responsible for their crashes, to identify key factors in those crashes for which older drivers have been judged responsible, and to assess the extent to which older drivers' extra crash responsibility contributes to the road toll. Insurance claims from the State of Tasmania, Australia, for 1998-2002 were linked with police records for crashes involving drivers aged either 41-55 years or 65 years or older. Insurance and police data sets contained independent judgments of crash responsibility. There was a high level of agreement between the two sets of judgments, with older drivers judged around 1.5 times more likely to be responsible for their crashes than middle-aged drivers and, conversely, older drivers were around 0.6 as likely to be absolved from crash responsibility. It was concluded that older drivers' additional crash responsibility while valuable in explaining "what went wrong," currently makes only a small contribution to the overall road toll.