The drivers of risk to water security in Shanghai

Big cities are often said to have big water problems, and Shanghai is no exception. In this paper, we examine and compare the influence of the major factors that give rise to the risk of water insecurity in Shanghai. There is an extensive and diverse literature on these issues, dealt with in isolation, and here, we provide a synthesis of the literature, together with our own assessments and calculations, to assess what are the risks to Shanghai’s water supply and what is our degree of confidence in this assessment. We describe the systems that supply water to the city, and past and future changes in the systems, including changes in the glaciers that supply some water to the river, changes in climate, changes in land use, the construction of dams, and water diversions. We show how, at the same time as Shanghai is increasing its dependence on the Yangtze river, water diversions and sea level rise are increasing the risk that this water will be too saline to consume at certain times of the year. This analysis suggests that most of the major drivers of the risk to water security in Shanghai are within the power of environmental managers to control.     

A performance evaluation of the National Air Quality Forecast Capability for the summer of 2007

This paper provides a performance evaluation of the real-time, CONUS-scale National Air Quality Forecast Capability (NAQFC) that supported, in part, its transition into operational status. This evaluation focuses primarily on discrete forecasts for the maximum 8-h O₃ concentrations covering the 4-month period, June through September, 2007, using measurements obtained from EPA's AIRNow network. Results indicate that the 2007 NAQFC performed as well or better than previous configurations, despite the expansion of the forecast domain into the western half of the nation that is dominated by complex terrain. The mean, domain-wide, season-long correlation was 0.70. When examined over time, the domain-wide correlations exhibit a fairly consistent nature, with values exceeding 0.60 (0.70) over 90% (55%) of the days. The NAQFC systematically over-predicted the 8-h O₃ concentrations, continuing a trend established by earlier NAQFC configurations, though to a lesser degree. The summer-long mean forecast value of 53.2 ppb was 4.2 ppb higher than the observed value, resulting in a domain-wide Normalized Mean Bias (NMB) of 8.7%. Most of the over-prediction is associated with observed concentrations less than 50 ppb. In fact the model tends to under-predict when concentrations exceed 70 ppb. As with the bias, the error associated with the latest configuration was also lower. The summer-long Root Mean Square Error of 13.0 ppb (Normalized Mean Error (NME) = 20.4%) represented marked improvements over earlier forecasts. Examination of the spatial distribution of both the NMB and NME reveals that the NAQFC was generally within 25% for the NME and 25% for the NMB over a majority of the domain. Several areas of poorer performance, where the NMB and NME often exceed 25% and in some cases 50%, were noted. These areas include southern California, where the NAQFC tended to under-predict concentrations (especially on weekends) and the southeast Atlantic and Gulf coasts regions, where the model over-predicted. Subsequent analysis revealed that the incorrect temporal allocation of precursor emissions was likely the source of the under-prediction in southern California, while inaccurate simulation of PBL heights likely contributed to the over-prediction in the coastal regions.     

The world agricultural system and ethical considerations relating to the rural environment: Some perspectives on cause and effect in underdeveloped countries

Food is a basic human need and therefore a basic human right. While food output has increased to a level where there is enough food produced to feed the world, still millions starve. Using the concept of capitalist world economy as a framework, this paper provides a structural analysis of the food production and distribution system within monopoly capitalism and its implications for countries of the underdeveloped world. Focusing on the impact of a dominant world food supply system on indigenous systems (particularly through the rise of science, technology, and monopoly capital), considerations relating to environmental use and food production and distribution are raised. Finally a call is made for a new agricultural ethic.     

Social organization in deer: Implications for localized management

Populations of white-tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus) inhabiting many state and national parks and suburban areas have grown to the point that they conflict with human activities. Conflicts range from destruction of vegetation through browsing to public perception that diseases carried by deer pose threats to human health. Traditional modes of hunting to control populations are inappropriate in many of these areas because of intense human development and activity. This article explores an alternative approach for population reduction based on deer social organization. Female white-tailed deer are highly philopatric and female offspring remain near their dams for life. This suggests that a population expands slowly as a series of overlapping home ranges in a form analogous to the petals on a rose. Incorporating the rose petal concept into a model of population growth shows that removal of deer by family unit can potentially alleviate conflicts in localized areas for as many as 10–15 yr.     

Solubilization and methanogenesis of a particulate industrial waste: Impact of solids loading and temperature

Effective anaerobic treatment of particulate wastes requires solubilization and acid formation prior to methanogenesis. In this case study of a particulate waste from a corn-processing industry, the influence of solids loading in solubilization, acid formation and methanogenesis was studied under mesophilic (35°C) and thermophilic (60°C) conditions. The waste was concentrated by centrifugation to initial suspended solids concentrations (TSS_i) of 150 to 350 g/L (15% to 35%). Anaerobic batch tests were conducted for 20 days, and significant solubilization of the particulate organic matter occurred in all cases. The thermophilic systems were more effective than the mesophilic systems with respect to solubilization of particulates, volatile solids destruction, acetic acid uptake, and methane generation. Methanogenesis appreared to be a rate-limiting step at higher TSS_i values, indicated by accumulation of volatile organic acids in the batch systems. Slower rates of methane production led to identification of the limiting solids loading for both temperature regimes. The results of this study can be used to evaluate the limitations of a single stage system for anaerobic treatment of organic particulate industrial wastes.     

Morphologie effects of channelization: the case of the Neebing-McIntyre floodway,Thunder Bay,Ontario, Canada

The Neebing-McIntyre floodway in Thunder Bay, Ontario, Canada, has been constructed with a relatively straight and uniform trapezoidal channel, compared with the prechannelized sinuous reaches of the Neebing and the McIntyre rivers. The flow regime of the floodway also contrasts significantly with the prechannelized regime, because of the combination of discharges from these rivers into a new channel and the regulation of flows by a diversion structure. The maximum channel capacity of the floodway is about 284 m³ s^–1 (175-year regional flood), compared with about 40 m³ s^–1 and 60 m³ s^–1, respectively, for the Neebing and the McIntyre. According to regime theories, the construction of a straight and trapezoidal channel has upset the equilibrium of the stream system and therefore should lead to some accelerated erosion and sedimentation processes in the new channel immediately after construction. Erosion potential is particularly high during higher discharge events, when flow velocities are expected to be greater than the prechannelized velocities of the Neebing and the McIntyre. The overall sediment yield of the watershed is low (71t km^–2 yr^–1), compared with other documented watersheds of North America, but the rates of deposition in the floodway are relatively high, mainly due to the backwater effect of Lake Superior. Unless maintained by constant channel work, the floodway will tend to fill up with sediment, until a postconstructional equilibrium is reestablished.