Comparison of tracer techniques for monitoring sewer losses

Two different experimental techniques employing conservative tracers to determine exfiltration losses in a sewer system are reported. Both techniques compare the in-sewer responses measured along designated indicator and reference sections to assess the level of exfiltration although with different degrees of reliability. The experimental and interpretation errors associated with a pulse dosing technique, in which Rhodamine WT is used as the single tracer, are described. The estimation of exfiltration requires the comparison of indicator and reference peaks which need to be well resolved and reproducible in order to provide realistic results. A more consistent technique involves the continuous dosing of two different tracers with the objective of producing simultaneous downstream peak tracer concentrations. Any errors due to flow variations are eliminated and the longer measurement period allows both peak and background concentrations to be more accurately determined. Rhodamine WT, Li and Br were used in different combinations over the approximately 20 min duration of each continuous dosing experiment and were found to demonstrate conservative behaviours with measured recoveries of 97.6-100.6%, 97.3-101.4% and 108.4-109.2%, respectively. The analytical problems associated with the determination of the different tracers in sewage are described and are shown to be responsible for the reduced accuracy of the results associated with the use of Br. The preferred combination of tracers is Rhodamine WT as the indicator and Li as the reference and these are shown to be capable of estimating sewer losses to an accuracy of +/-1.0% using the continuous dosing approach.     

A novel statistical method for classifying habitat generalists and specialists

We develop a novel statistical approach for classifying generalists and specialists in two distinct habitats. Using a multinomial model based on estimated species relative abundance in two habitats, our method minimizes bias due to differences in sampling intensities between two habitat types as well as bias due to insufficient sampling within each habitat. The method permits a robust statistical classification of habitat specialists and generalists, without excluding rare species a priori. Based on a user-defined specialization threshold, the model classifies species into one of four groups: (1) generalist; (2) habitat A specialist; (3) habitat B specialist; and (4) too rare to classify with confidence. We illustrate our multinomial classification method using two contrasting data sets: (1) bird abundance in woodland and heath habitats in southeastern Australia and (2) tree abundance in second-growth (SG) and old-growth (OG) rain forests in the Caribbean lowlands of northeastern Costa Rica. We evaluate the multinomial model in detail for the tree data set. Our results for birds were highly concordant with a previous nonstatistical classification, but our method classified a higher fraction (57.7%) of bird species with statistical confidence. Based on a conservative specialization threshold and adjustment for multiple comparisons, 64.4% of tree species in the full sample were too rare to classify with confidence. Among the species classified, OG specialists constituted the largest class (40.6%), followed by generalist tree species (36.7%) and SG specialists (22.7%). The multinomial model was more sensitive than indicator value analysis or abundance-based phi coefficient indices in detecting habitat specialists and also detects generalists statistically. Classification of specialists and generalists based on rarefied subsamples was highly consistent with classification based on the full sample, even for sampling percentages as low as 20%. Major advantages of the new method are (1) its ability to distinguish habitat generalists (species with no significant habitat affinity) from species that are simply too rare to classify and (2) applicability to a single representative sample or a single pooled set of representative samples from each of two habitat types. The method as currently developed can be applied to no more than two habitats at a time.     

Hazards, spatial transmission and timing of outbreaks in epidemic metapopulations

Highly infectious, immunizing pathogens can cause violent local outbreaks that are followed by the agent’s extinction as it runs out of susceptible hosts. For these pathogens, regional persistence can only be secured through spatial transmission and geographically asynchronous epidemics. In this paper we develop a hazard model for the waiting time between epidemics. We use the model, first, to discuss the predictability in timing of epidemics, and, second, to estimate the strength of spatial transmission. Based on the hazard model, we conclude that highly epidemic pathogens can at times be predictable in the sense that the waiting-time distribution between outbreaks is probabilistically bounded; The greater the spatial transmission the more periodic the outbreak dynamics. When we analyze the historical records of measles outbreaks in England and Wales between 1944 and 1965, we find the waiting-time between epidemics to depend inversely on community size. This is because large communities are much more tightly coupled to the regional metapopulation. The model further help identify the most important areas for spatial transmission. We conclude that the data on absence of these pathogens is the key to understanding spatial spread.     

Modeling and spatial prediction of pre-settlement patterns of forest distribution using witness tree data

At the time of European settlement, land surveys were conducted progressively westward throughout the United States. Outside of the original 13 colonies, surveys generally followed the Public Land Survey system in which trees, called witness trees, were regularly recorded at 1 mi by 1 mi grid intersections. This unintentional sampling provides insight into the composition and structure of pre-European settlement forests, which is used as baseline data to assess forest change following settlement. In this paper, a model for the Public Land Surveys of east central Alabama is developed. Assuming that the locations of trees of each species are realized from independent Poisson processes whose respective log intensities are linear functions of environmental covariates (i.e., elevation, landform, and physiographic province), the species observed at the survey grid intersections are independently sampled from a generalized logistic regression model. If all 68 species found in the survey were included, the model would be highly over-parameterized, so only the distribution of the most common taxon, pines, will be considered at this time. To assess the impact of environmental factors not included in the model, a hidden Gaussian random field shall be added as a random effect. A Markov Chain Monte Carlo algorithm is developed for Bayesian inference on model parameters, and for Bayes posterior prediction of the spatial distribution of pines in east central Alabama. Received: June 2004 / Revised: November 2004     

Conflicts,social economics and life history strategies in ants

Summary This paper presents a life history model for a perennial social insect colony. The model's purpose is to explore the evolutionary consequences, in terms of fitness of different parties within the colony, of alternative life history strategies. The model has been specifically developed for colonies of the slave-making ant, Harpagoxenus sublaevis, which has reproductive workers organized in dominance orders. It incorporates empirically obtained parameters, and uses computer algorithms based on numerical optimization to determine the optimum policy for a colony queen in allocating resources between workers, queens, and males. Variants of the model also consider alternative situations in which either (1) orphaned workers do not slave-raid, or (2) workers are sterile. The results correspond closely to data on colony growth and reproductive allocation obtained from the field. They suggest that a colony queen would suffer reduced fitness in the two theoretical cases as compared to the real situation. Reproduction by orphaned workers posthumously enhances the colony queen's fitness because a queen with sterile workers cannot produce enough extra sexuals in her lifetime to balance her loss in grandson production. The results also suggest that the division of labour between slave-raiding and nonraiding workers observed in H. sublaevis colonies can be explained as an outcome of worker-worker reproductive conflict: reproductively-inhibited subordinate workers can increase their inclusive fitness by slaveraiding for dominant, nonraiding egg-layers. These findings emphasize the evolutionary importance of the orphanage period and of intracolony conflict in monogynous social insect colonies.     

Numerical modeling of humic colloid borne americium (III) migration in column experiments using the transport/speciation code K1D and the KICAM model

The humic colloid borne Am(III) transport was investigated in column experiments for Gorleben groundwater/sand systems. It was found that the interaction of Am with humic colloids is kinetically controlled, which strongly influences the migration behavior of Am(III). These kinetic effects have to be taken into account for transport/speciation modeling. The kinetically controlled availability model (KICAM) was developed to describe actinide sorption and transport in laboratory batch and column experiments. Application of the KICAM requires a chemical transport/speciation code, which simultaneously models both kinetically controlled processes and equilibrium reactions. Therefore, the code K1D was developed as a flexible research code that allows the inclusion of kinetic data in addition to transport features and chemical equilibrium. This paper presents the verification of K1D and its application to model column experiments investigating unimpeded humic colloid borne Am migration. Parmeters for reactive transport simulations were determined for a Gorleben groundwater system of high humic colloid concentration (GoHy 2227). A single set of parameters was used to model a series of column experiments. Model results correspond well to experimental data for the unretarded humic borne Am breakthrough.     

Accumulation and fractionation of copper, iron, manganese, and zinc in calcareous soils amended with composts.

Amending soils with compost may lead to accumulation of metals and their fractions at various concentrations in the soil profile. The objectives of this study were to determine 1) the accumulation of Cu, Fe, Mn, and Zn with depth and 2) the distribution of water soluble, exchangeable, carbonate, Fe-Mn oxides, organic and residual forms of each metal in soils amended with MSW compost, co-compost, biosolids compost and inorganic fertilizer (as control). Total concentrations of Cu, Fe, Mn and Zn were concentrated in the 0-22 cm soil layer and scant in the rock layer. These metals were in the decreasing order of Fe > Mn > Zn > or = Cu. Copper, Fe, and Zn were predominantly in the residual form followed by fractions associated with Fe-Mn oxides, carbonate, organic, exchangeable and water soluble in all treatments except MSW compost amended soil where the organic fraction was higher than the carbonate fraction. In fertilizer, co-compost and biosolids compost treated soils Mn concentrated mainly in the Fe-Mn oxides form followed by residual, carbonate, and organic forms whereas, in MSW compost treated soil the same pattern occurred except that Mn organic fraction was higher than that in the carbonate form. The MSW compost has a greater potential to be used as a soil amendment to supply plants with Cu, Mn and Zn than other treatments in calcareous soils of south Florida.     

Potential risk to wood storks (Mycteria americana) from mercury in Carolina Bay fish

Carolina bays are freshwater wetlands that serve as important feeding habitats for the endangered wood stork (Mycteria americana). Water levels in these bays fluctuate greatly and tend to be acidic and rich in dissolved organic carbon (DOC), factors that favor mercury (Hg) methylation and bioaccumulation in fish. To assess potential risks to wood storks consuming mercury contaminated fish in bays, we sampled fish from 10 bays on the Savannah River Site (SRS), South Carolina, an area with documented use by wood storks. Whole body mercury concentrations in 258 fishes of three species (Erimyzon sucetta, Acantharchuspomotis and Esox americanus) commonly consumed by wood storks were determined. Risk factors for nestlings and free-ranging adults were calculated using published no and lowest observable adverse effect concentration (NOAEC and LOAEC) values for birds. Fish from higher trophic levels and those from wetlands with relatively shallow maximum depths and fluctuating water levels were more likely to exceed NOAEC and LOAEC values. Calculation of exposure rates of nestling wood storks indicated they are at highest risk during the first 10 days of the nestling period. These calculations suggest that there is potential concern for wood storks foraging in relatively shallow bays with fluctuating water levels, even though there is no obvious local source of mercury to these wetlands.     

Influence of decomposition on chemical properties of plant- and manure-derived dissolved organic matter and sorption to goethite

Sorption of dissolved organic matter (DOM) plays an important role in maintaining the fertility and quality of soils in agricultural ecosystems. Few studies have examined the effects of decomposition on DOM sorption and chemical characteristics. This study investigated the sorption to goethite (alpha-FeOOH) of fresh and decomposed hydrophilic (HPL) and hydrophobic (HPB) DOM fractions extracted from the shoots and roots of crimson clover (Trifolium incarnatum L.), corn (Zea mays L.), soybean [Glycine max (L.) Merr.], hairy vetch (Vicia villosa L.), and dairy and poultry manures. Sorption was positively related to apparent molecular weight (MWAP), aromaticity as measured by absorptivity at 280 nm, and phenolic acid content. A 10-d laboratory microbial decomposition of the source organic matter generally increased the sorption of the extracted DOM onto goethite. The decomposition effect on sorption was greater for the HPL fractions than for the HPB fractions. There was a decrease in the MWAP values of the DOM samples following sorption to goethite. In many cases the reduction in MWAP was large, indicating a strong preference by goethite for the higher MWAP DOM fractions. The results of this laboratory-based research demonstrate that microbial processes affect the chemical characteristics of DOM which may affect the distribution of soil organic C pools.     

A WINDOWS‐BASED GIS‐AGNPS INTERFACE1

ABSTRACT: ArcView Nonpoint Source Pollution Modeling (AVNPSM), an interface between ArcView GIS and AGNPS (Agricultural Nonpoint Source Pollution Model) is developed in support of agricultural watershed analysis and nonpoint source pollution management. The interface is PC‐based and operates in a Windows environment. It consists of seven modules: AGNPS utility, parameter generator, input file processor, model executor, output visualizer, statistical analyzer, and land use simulator. Basic input data to the interface include: soil, digital elevation model, land use/cover, water features, climate, and information on management practices. Application of the AVNPSM to a sample watershed indicates that it is user friendly, flexible, and robust, and it significantly improves the efficiency of the nonpoint source pollution modeling process.