Impacts of Human Behavioral Heterogeneity on the Benefits of Probabilistic Flood Warnings: An Agent‐Based Modeling Framework

Flood forecasts and warnings are intended to reduce flood‐related property damages and loss of human life. Considerable research has improved flood forecasting accuracy (e.g., more accurate prediction of the occurrence of flood events) and lead time. However, the delivery of improved forecast information alone is not necessarily sufficient to reduce flood damage and loss of life, as people have varying responses and reactions to flood warnings. This study develops an agent‐based modeling framework that evaluates the impacts of heterogeneity in human behaviors (i.e., variation in behaviors in response to flood warnings), as well as residential density, on the benefits of flood warnings. The framework is coupled with a traffic model to simulate evacuation processes within a road network under various flood warning scenarios. The results show the marginal benefit associated with providing better flood warnings is significantly constrained if people behave in a more risk‐tolerant manner, especially in high‐density residential areas. The results also show significant impacts of human behavioral heterogeneity on the benefits of flood warnings, and thus stress the importance of considering human behavioral heterogeneity in simulating flood warning‐response systems. Further study is suggested to more accurately model human responses and behavioral heterogeneity, as well as to include more attributes of residential areas to estimate and improve the benefits of flood warnings.     

Injury severity related to overturn characteristics of tractors

Introduction

Early studies of injuries associated with overturns indicate that more fatalities occurred when a tractor overturned beyond 90° (continuous roll) relative to the impact plane. Recently, the principle of preventing continuous rolls has re-emerged for the protection of riding lawnmower operators.

Method

Related to tractors, a population-based study was conducted that compared the severity of fatal and nonfatal injuries between a 90° and continuous roll for tractors equipped with rollover protective structures (ROPS) and not equipped with a ROPS (non- ROPS). In 2002, the Kentucky Farm Tractor Overturn Survey was administered to an 8% random sample (6,063) of Kentucky farm operators. The farmers responded to questions that differentiated between the types of overturns and operator injury outcomes for ROPS-equipped and non-ROPS tractors during overturn events. Overturn characteristics were collected that included 90° to the side, beyond 90° to the side, and to the rear for both ROPS-equipped and non-ROPS tractors.

Results

Of the 541 overturns reported in this study, 535 (99%) of the respondents reported the most recent overturn characteristics of the tractor: 92 (17%) were ROPS-equipped and 443 (83%) were non-ROPS. For side overturns, 67% of the rolls occurred with ROPS-equipped tractors, and 54% occurred with non-ROPS tractors. The percentages of deaths related to rolls to the side for ROPS-equipped and non-ROPS tractors were, respectively, 1.6% and 3.7%. There was one (2%) deaths related to 90° rolls for ROPS-equipped tractors, whereas for continuous rolls there were 6.4% fatalities related to side overturns, 13% resulted in non-fatal injuries with an average of 1 day of hospitalization for ROPS-equipped tractors, and 39% resulted in non-fatal injuries with an average of 18 days of hospitalization for non-ROPS tractors. The results from this study indicated that a ROPS was more effective at stopping an overturn at 90° than no ROPS, with an associated reduction in the severity of injury in the event of a tractor overturn.     

Vegetative buffers for fan emissions from poultry farms: 2. ammonia, dust and foliar nitrogen

This study evaluated the potential of trees planted around commercial poultry farms to trap ammonia (NH(3)) and dust or particulate matter (PM). Norway spruce, Spike hybrid poplar, hybrid willow, and Streamco purpleosier willow were planted on five commercial farms from 2003 to 2004. Plant foliage was sampled in front of the exhaust fans and at a control distance away from the fans on one turkey, two laying hen, and two broiler chicken farms between June and July 2006. Samples were analyzed for dry matter (DM), nitrogen (N), and PM content. In addition, NH(3) concentrations were measured downwind of the exhaust fans among the trees and at a control distance using NH(3) passive dosi-tubes. Foliage samples were taken and analyzed separately based on plant species. The two layer farms had both spruce and poplar plantings whereas the two broiler farms had hybrid willow and Streamco willow plantings which allowed sampling and species comparisons with the effect of plant location (control vs. fan). The results showed that NH(3) concentration h(- 1) was reduced by distance from housing fans (P < or = 0.0001), especially between 0 m (12.01 ppm), 11.4 m (2.59 ppm), 15 m (2.03 ppm), and 30 m (0.31 ppm). Foliar N of plants near the fans was greater than those sampled away from the fans for poplar (3.87 vs. 2.56%; P < or = 0.0005) and hybrid willow (3.41 vs. 3.02%; P < or = 0.05). The trends for foliar N in spruce (1.91 vs. 1.77%; P = 0.26) and Streamco willow (3.85 vs. 3.33; P = 0.07) were not significant. Pooling results of the four plant species indicated greater N concentration from foliage sampled near the fans than of that away from the fans (3.27 vs. 2.67%; P < or = 0.0001). Foliar DM concentration was not affected by plant location, and when pooled the foliar DM of the four plant species near the fans was 51.3% in comparison with 48.5% at a control distance. There was a significant effect of plant location on foliar N and DM on the two layer farms with greater N and DM adjacent to fans than at a control distance (2.95 vs. 2.15% N and 45.4 vs. 38.2% DM, respectively). There were also significant plant species effects on foliar N and DM with poplar retaining greater N (3.22 vs. 1.88%) and DM (43.7 vs. 39.9%) than spruce. The interaction of location by species (P < or = 0.005) indicated that poplar was more responsive in terms of foliar N, but less responsive for DM than spruce. The effect of location and species on foliar N and DM were not clear among the two willow species on the broiler farms. Plant location had no effect on plant foliar PM weight, but plant species significantly influenced the ability of the plant foliage to trap PM with spruce and hybrid willow showing greater potential than poplar and Streamco willow for PM(2.5)(0.0054, 0.0054, 0.0005, and 0.0016 mg cm(- 2); P < or = 0.05) and total PM (0.0309, 0.0102, 0.0038, and 0.0046 mg cm(- 2), respectively; P < or = 0.001). Spruce trapped more dust compared to the other three species (hybrid willow, poplar, and Streamco willow) for PM(10) (0.0248 vs. 0.0036 mg cm(- 2); P < or = 0.0001) and PM(> 10) (0.0033 vs. 0.0003 mg cm(- 2); P = 0.052). This study indicates that poplar, hybrid willow, and Streamco willow are appropriate species to absorb poultry house aerial NH(3)-N, whereas spruce and hybrid willow are effective traps for dust and its associated odors.     

Does Engagement in Advocacy Hurt the Credibility of Scientists? Results from a Randomized National Survey Experiment

It is often assumed that issue advocacy will compromise the credibility of scientists. We conducted a randomized controlled experiment to test public reactions to six different advocacy statements made by a scientist—ranging from a purely informational statement to an endorsement of specific policies. We found that perceived credibility of the communicating scientist was uniformly high in five of the six message conditions, suffering only when he advocated for a specific policy—building more nuclear power plants (although credibility did not suffer when advocating for a different specific policy—carbon dioxide limits at power plants). We also found no significant differences in trust in the broader climate science community between the six message conditions. Our results suggest that climate scientists who wish to engage in certain forms of advocacy have considerable latitude to do so without risking harm to their credibility, or the credibility of the scientific community.     

Vegetative buffers for fan emissions from poultry farms: 1. temperature and foliar nitrogen

This study sought to evaluate the potential of trees planted around commercial poultry farms to trap ammonia (NH₃), the gas of greatest environmental concern to the poultry industry. Four plant species (Norway spruce, Spike hybrid poplar, Streamco willow, and hybrid willow) were planted on eight commercial farms from 2003 to 2004. Because temperature (T) can be a stressor for trees, T was monitored in 2005 with data loggers among the trees in front of the exhaust fans (11.4 to 17.7 m) and at a control distance away from the fans (48 m) during all four seasons in Pennsylvania. Norway spruce (Picea abies) foliage samples were taken in August 2005 from one turkey and two layer farms for dry matter (DM) and nitrogen (N) analysis. The two layer farms had both Norway spruce and Spike hybrid poplar (Populus deltoides × Populus nigra) plantings sampled as well allowing comparisons of species and the effect of plant location near the fans versus a control distance away. Proximity to the fans had a clear effect on spruce foliar N with greater concentrations downwind of the fans than at control distances (3.03 vs. 1.88%; P ≤ 0.0005). Plant location was again a significant factor for foliar N of both poplar and spruce on the two farms with both species showing greater N adjacent to the fans compared to the controls (3.75 vs. 2.32%; P ≤ 0.0001). Pooled foliar DM of both plants was also greater among those near the fans (56.17, fan vs. 44.67%, control; P ≤ 0.005). Species differences were also significant showing the potential of poplar to retain greater foliar N than spruce (3.52 vs. 2.55%; P ≤ 0.001) with less DM (46.00 vs. 54.83%; P ≤ 0.05) in a vegetative buffer setting. The results indicated plants were not stressed by the T near exhaust fans with mean seasonal T (13.04 vs. 13.03°C, respectively) not significantly different from controls. This suggested poultry house exhaust air among the trees near the fans would not result in dormancy stressors on the plants compared to controls away from the fans.     

Vegetative buffers for fan emissions from poultry farms: 2. ammonia,dust and foliar nitrogen

This study evaluated the potential of trees planted around commercial poultry farms to trap ammonia (NH₃) and dust or particulate matter (PM). Norway spruce, Spike hybrid poplar, hybrid willow, and Streamco purpleosier willow were planted on five commercial farms from 2003 to 2004. Plant foliage was sampled in front of the exhaust fans and at a control distance away from the fans on one turkey, two laying hen, and two broiler chicken farms between June and July 2006. Samples were analyzed for dry matter (DM), nitrogen (N), and PM content. In addition, NH₃ concentrations were measured downwind of the exhaust fans among the trees and at a control distance using NH₃ passive dosi–tubes. Foliage samples were taken and analyzed separately based on plant species. The two layer farms had both spruce and poplar plantings whereas the two broiler farms had hybrid willow and Streamco willow plantings which allowed sampling and species comparisons with the effect of plant location (control vs. fan). The results showed that NH₃ concentration h^{? 1} was reduced by distance from housing fans (P ≤ 0.0001), especially between 0 m (12.01 ppm), 11.4 m (2.59 ppm), 15 m (2.03 ppm), and 30 m (0.31 ppm). Foliar N of plants near the fans was greater than those sampled away from the fans for poplar (3.87 vs. 2.56%; P ≤ 0.0005) and hybrid willow (3.41 vs. 3.02%; P ≤ 0.05). The trends for foliar N in spruce (1.91 vs. 1.77%; P = 0.26) and Streamco willow (3.85 vs. 3.33; P = 0.07) were not significant. Pooling results of the four plant species indicated greater N concentration from foliage sampled near the fans than of that away from the fans (3.27 vs. 2.67%; P ≤ 0.0001). Foliar DM concentration was not affected by plant location, and when pooled the foliar DM of the four plant species near the fans was 51.3% in comparison with 48.5% at a control distance. There was a significant effect of plant location on foliar N and DM on the two layer farms with greater N and DM adjacent to fans than at a control distance (2.95 vs. 2.15% N and 45.4 vs. 38.2% DM, respectively). There were also significant plant species effects on foliar N and DM with poplar retaining greater N (3.22 vs. 1.88%) and DM (43.7 vs. 39.9%) than spruce. The interaction of location by species (P ≤ 0.005) indicated that poplar was more responsive in terms of foliar N, but less responsive for DM than spruce. The effect of location and species on foliar N and DM were not clear among the two willow species on the broiler farms. Plant location had no effect on plant foliar PM weight, but plant species significantly influenced the ability of the plant foliage to trap PM with spruce and hybrid willow showing greater potential than poplar and Streamco willow for PM_2.5(0.0054, 0.0054, 0.0005, and 0.0016 mg cm^{? 2}; P ≤ 0.05) and total PM (0.0309, 0.0102, 0.0038, and 0.0046 mg cm^{? 2}, respectively; P ≤ 0.001). Spruce trapped more dust compared to the other three species (hybrid willow, poplar, and Streamco willow) for PM₁₀ (0.0248 vs. 0.0036 mg cm^{? 2}; P ≤ 0.0001) and PM_{> 10} (0.0033 vs. 0.0003 mg cm^{? 2}; P = 0.052). This study indicates that poplar, hybrid willow, and Streamco willow are appropriate species to absorb poultry house aerial NH₃–N, whereas spruce and hybrid willow are effective traps for dust and its associated odors.     

High-temporal resolution landscape changes related to anthropogenic activities over the past millennium in the Vosges Mountains (France)

Iron mining activities in the Bruche valley (Vosges Mountains, France) date historically from the Roman period to the mid-nineteenth century. The geochemical and palynological study of a core from the peat bog of Le Champ du Feu allows highlighting impacts of these activities over the past millennium. Trace metal contamination is recorded for lead (Pb), arsenic, zinc, and antimony during the Middle Ages, the sixteenth century, and from cal. ad 1750–1900, with several sources distinguished by Pb isotope analyses. Forest exploitation is attested by the palynological analysis of the core, with exploitation of Fagus for smelting processes and cutting of Abies for agro-pastoralism. This approach highlights several patterns of contamination, corresponding to the mixing sources and the contamination intensity, which can be linked to the pollen assemblage zones. Hence, anthropogenic activities such as mining and farming led to long-term modification of the landscape composition in this mountainous area.     

Liver lesions in demersal fishes near a large ocean outfall on the San Pedro Shelf, California

The prevalence of toxicopathic liver lesions in demersal fish on the San Pedro Shelf, California was determined for a 15-year period (1988–2003). Fish livers were sampled at fixed locations as part of the Orange County Sanitation Districts (OCSD) ocean monitoring program. Histopathological examination of selected fish liver tissues was studied to determine whether the wastewater discharge had affected fish health. The prevalence of toxicopathic lesion classes neoplasms (NEO), preneoplastic foci of cellular alteration (FCA), and hydropic vacuolation (HYDVAC) varied among species and locations. For all species sampled, severe lesions occurred in 6.2% of the fish examined (n = 7,694). HYDVAC (4.1%) was the most common toxicopathic lesion type followed by FCA (1.4%) and NEO (0.7%). HYDVAC occurred only in white croaker (Genyonemus lineatus), accounting for 84.8% of the toxicopathic lesions for this species. Prevalence of HYDVAC, NEO, and FCA in white croaker was 15.2, 2.0, and 0.7%, respectively. The prevalence of HYDVAC and NEO in white croaker increased with age and size but there was no sexual difference. A linear regression model was used for hypothesis testing to account for significant differences in fish size (and age for croakers) at the different sampling locations. This analysis showed that for HYDVAC there was no spatial or location effect for lesion rate or size/age of onset. For NEO, the model predicted that white croaker near the wastewater outfall may acquire these lesions at a smaller size/younger age, and at a higher rate, than at other sites. However, this result may be biased due to the unequal size frequency distributions and the low prevalence of NEO in white croaker at the different sampling sites. Bigmouth sole (Hippoglossina stomata) had a prevalence of FCA and NEO of 1.3 and 0.35%, respectively, but the prevalence and distribution of lesions was too few for statistical testing. There was no sexual difference for lesion prevalence in hornyhead turbot (Pleuronichthys verticalis) and the prevalence of FCA and NEO was 3.4 and 0.37%, respectively. FCA prevalence increased with size in hornyhead turbot and there were no significant spatial differences for lesion rates and fish size at lesion onset. Overall, consistent spatial differences for lesion prevalence were not demonstrated and highlight the analytical difficulties of detecting a possible point source impact when the effect is rare, correlated with the size/age structure of the population, and may be caused by exposure to unknown multiple sources. Thus, the usefulness of liver histopathology as a point-source monitoring tool is best applied to where the spatial scale of impact generally exceeds the home range of the target species.     

Corbicula fluminea gene expression modulated by CeO2 nanomaterials and salinity

Environmental Science and Pollution Research - Cerium dioxide nanomaterials (CeO2 NMs) are used in different fields and incorporated in daily products. Several studies highlighted their effects on...     

Sustainability or collapse: what can we learn from integrating the history of humans and the rest of nature?

Understanding the history of how humans have interacted with the rest of nature can help clarify the options for managing our increasingly interconnected global system. Simple, deterministic relationships between environmental stress and social change are inadequate. Extreme drought, for instance, triggered both social collapse and ingenious management of water through irrigation. Human responses to change, in turn, feed into climate and ecological systems, producing a complex web of multidirectional connections in time and space. Integrated records of the co-evolving human-environment system over millennia are needed to provide a basis for a deeper understanding of the present and for forecasting the future. This requires the major task of assembling and integrating regional and global historical, archaeological, and paleoenvironmental records. Humans cannot predict the future. But, if we can adequately understand the past, we can use that understanding to influence our decisions and to create a better, more sustainable and desirable future.