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51.
John R. Dymond Tim J. A. Davie Andrew D. Fenemor Jagath C. Ekanayake Ben R. Knight Anthony O. Cole Oscar Montes de Oca Munguia Will J. Allen Roger G. Young Les R. Basher Marc Dresser Chris J. Batstone 《Environmental management》2010,46(3):484-493
Can we develop land use policy that balances the conflicting views of stakeholders in a catchment while moving toward long term sustainability? Adaptive management provides a strategy for this whereby measures of catchment performance are compared against performance goals in order to progressively improve policy. However, the feedback loop of adaptive management is often slow and irreversible impacts may result before policy has been adapted. In contrast, integrated modelling of future land use policy provides rapid feedback and potentially improves the chance of avoiding unwanted collapse events. Replacing measures of catchment performance with modelled catchment performance has usually required the dynamic linking of many models, both biophysical and socio-economic—and this requires much effort in software development. As an alternative, we propose the use of variable environmental intensity (defined as the ratio of environmental impact over economic output) in a loose coupling of models to provide a sufficient level of integration while avoiding significant effort required for software development. This model construct was applied to the Motueka Catchment of New Zealand where several biophysical (riverine water quantity, sediment, E. coli faecal bacteria, trout numbers, nitrogen transport, marine productivity) models, a socio-economic (gross output, gross margin, job numbers) model, and an agent-based model were linked. An extreme set of land use scenarios (historic, present, and intensive) were applied to this modelling framework. Results suggest that the catchment is presently in a near optimal land use configuration that is unlikely to benefit from further intensification. This would quickly put stress on water quantity (at low flow) and water quality (E. coli). To date, this model evaluation is based on a theoretical test that explores the logical implications of intensification at an unlikely extreme in order to assess the implications of likely growth trajectories from present use. While this has largely been a desktop exercise, it would also be possible to use this framework to model and explore the biophysical and economic impacts of individual or collective catchment visions. We are currently investigating the use of the model in this type of application. 相似文献
52.
53.
Chen J Jakober C Clegg S Kleeman MJ 《Journal of the Air & Waste Management Association (1995)》2010,60(10):1237-1244
A state-of-the-science thermodynamic model describing gas-particle absorption processes was used to predict the gas-particle partitioning of mixtures of approximately 60 carbonyl compounds emitted from low-emission gasoline-powered vehicles, three-way catalyst gasoline-powered vehicles, heavy-duty diesel vehicles under the idle-creep condition (HDDV idle), and heavy-duty diesel vehicles under the five-mode test (HDDV 5-mode). Exhaust was diluted by a factor of 120-580 with a residence time of approximately 43 sec. The predicted equilibrium absorption partitioning coefficients differed from the measured partitioning coefficients by several orders of magnitude. Time scales to reach equilibrium in the dilution sampling system were close to the actual residence time during the HDDV 5-mode test and much longer than the actual residence time during the other vehicle tests. It appears that insufficient residence time in the sampling system cannot uniformly explain the failure of the absorption mechanism to explain the measured partitioning. Other gas-particle partitioning mechanisms (e.g., heterogeneous reactions, capillary adsorption) beyond the simple absorption theory are needed to explain the discrepancy between calculated carbonyl partitioning coefficients and observed partitioning. Both of these alternative partitioning mechanisms imply great challenges for the measurement and modeling of semi-volatile primary organic aerosol (POA) species from motor vehicles. Furthermore, as emitted particle concentrations from newer vehicles approach atmospheric background levels, dilution sampling systems must fundamentally change their approach so that they use realistic particle concentrations in the dilution air to approximately represent real-world conditions. Samples collected with particle-free dilution air yielding total particulate matter concentrations below typical ambient concentrations will not provide a realistic picture of partitioning for semi-volatile compounds. 相似文献
54.
Lambert A. Doezema Chris Bigley Gabriele Canzi Kylee Chang Andrew J. Hirning Joyce Lee Nick Von der Ahe 《Atmospheric environment (Oxford, England : 1994)》2010,44(7):900-908
The effect of sampling protocol on ambient air hydrocarbon mixing ratios was examined on eight sampling days in Los Angeles during 2007 and 2008. Four protocols, which were based on previously published multi-city urban hydrocarbon studies in the United States, were compared and differences were quantified. Whole air canister samples were collected and analyzed for nonmethane hydrocarbons (NMHCs). Differing sampling protocols resulted in large differences in mixing ratios, up to an order of magnitude, for certain NMHCs on the same sampling day. However, the magnitude of the variability between NMHC levels obtained by the four protocols was not consistent throughout the eight sampling days. It was found that sampling time, followed by sampling location, had the greatest influence on the magnitude of the mixing ratio. Ratios between hydrocarbons, often used in urban studies to gain information on emission sources, also varied depending on the protocol used. Comparison of absolute NMHC mixing ratios collected in urban environments using differing sampling protocols should be made with care. 相似文献
55.
David C. Snyder Andrew P. Rutter Chris Worley Mike Olson Anthony Plourde Rebecca C. Bader Timothy Dallmann James J. Schauer 《Atmospheric environment (Oxford, England : 1994)》2010,44(13):1597-1608
Semi-continuous and 24-h averaged measurements of fine carbonaceous aerosols were made concurrently at three sites within each of two U.S. Midwestern Cities; Detroit, Michigan and Cleveland, Ohio; during two, one-month intensive campaigns conducted in July of 2007 and January & February of 2008. A comparison of 24-h measurements revealed substantial intra-urban variability in carbonaceous aerosols consistent with the influence of local sources, and excesses in both PM2.5 organic carbon (OC) and elemental carbon (EC) were identified at individual sites within each city. High time-resolved black carbon (BC) measurements indicated that elemental carbon concentrations were higher at sites adjacent to freeways and busy surface streets, and temporal patterns suggested that excess EC at sites adjacent to freeways was dominated by mobile source emissions while excesses in EC away from traffic corridors was dominated by point/area source emissions. The site-to-site variability in OC concentrations was approximately 7% within the neighborhood scale (0.5–4 km) and between 4 and 27% at the urban scale (4–100 km). In contrast, measurements of organic source tracers, in conjunction with a Chemical Mass Balance (CMB) source-apportionment model, indicated that the spatial variation in the contribution of both mobile and stationary sources to PM2.5 OC often exceeded the variation in OC mass concentration by a factor of 3 or more. Markers for mobile sources, biomass smoke, natural gas, and coal combustion differed by as much as 60% within the neighborhood scale and by greater than 200% within the urban scale. The observations made during this study suggest that the urban excess of carbonaceous aerosols is much more complex than has been previously reported and that a more rigorous, source-oriented approach should be taken in order to assess the risk associated with exposure to carbonaceous aerosols within the industrialized environments of the Midwestern United States. 相似文献
56.
Chris D. Geron Robert R. Arnts 《Atmospheric environment (Oxford, England : 1994)》2010,44(34):4240-4251
Seasonal volatile organic compound emission data from loblolly pine (Pinus taeda) and Virginia pine (Pinus virginiana) were collected using branch enclosure techniques in Central North Carolina, USA. P. taeda monoterpene emission rates were at least ten times higher than oxygenated monoterpene and sesquiterpene emissions in all seasons. α-pinene and β-pinene were the most abundant emissions, while β-caryophyllene had the highest sesquiterpene emission rate from this species. β-phellandrene was the dominant compound emitted from P. virginiana, followed by the sesquiterpene β-caryophyllene. Sesquiterpene emissions from P. virginiana have not been reported in the literature previously. Summer sesquiterpene emissions from P. virginiana were nearly as high as monoterpene emissions, but were 4–12 times lower than monoterpene emissions in the other seasons. Oxygenated monoterpenes and 2-methyl-3-buten-2-ol were emitted at higher rates from P. taeda than from P. virginiana. Temperature response of the pinenes from P. taeda is similar to previously reported values used in emission models, while that for other compounds falls at the lower end of the previously reported range. Temperature response of all compounds from P. virginiana is in reasonable agreement with previously reported values from other pine species. There is evidence of light dependence of sesquiterpene emission after accounting for temperature response from both species. This effect is somewhat stronger in P. taeda. Bud break, needle expansion, and needle fall (and therefore wind events) seemed to increase monoterpene emission during non-summer seasons. In some instances springtime monoterpene emissions were higher than summertime emissions despite cooler temperatures. Emissions of individual compounds within monoterpene, oxygenated monoterpene, and sesquiterpene classes were highly correlated with each other. Compounds from different classes were much less correlated within each species. This is due to a varying temporal emission patterns for each BVOC class and suggests different production, storage, and emission controls for each. Analysis of enclosure blanks and diurnal patterns indicates that, despite precautions, disturbance due to the enclosure technique may still impact monoterpene emission rate estimates. This did not appear to affect sesquiterpene emissions. 相似文献
57.
Petra Lasch Chris Kollas Joachim Rock Felicitas Suckow 《Regional Environmental Change》2010,10(2):83-94
Woody biomass generated in short-rotation coppice (SRC) plantations with aspen (Populus tremula L.) has good properties for bioenergy crop production: annual yields are high, labour input per year is low, and it is ecologically
valuable because of the multi-year rotation periods. Eastern Germany has a special advantage in producing bioenergy crops:
the former “agricultural cooperatives” built up quite large farms with, compared to Western Germany, comparatively large fields.
Therefore, a modelling study of the potential and the impacts of aspen SRC plantations in the five eastern federal states
of Germany under the recent climate and future climate projections was conducted. The ecophysiological forest growth model
4C was used to simulate the growth of aspen SRC plantations and their impacts on carbon in soils, and groundwater recharge,
on selected suitable areas currently under crops but with marginal site conditions for cropping. A clear signal to enhanced
growth condition over the whole area can be seen in the simulation of the mean annual woody biomass yield under conditions
of climate change, which increased from 7.47 t DW ha−1 a−1 under the recent climate to 9.26 t DW ha−1 a−1 at the end of the considered future period 2034–2055 under climate change. The mean soil carbon sequestration rate was 0.81 t C ha−1 a−1 under the recent climate and could rise up to 0.93 t C ha−1 a−1 under the assumption of climate change. On the other hand, the mean annual percolation rate, used as an indicator of impacts
on the regional water budget, will diminish under future climatic conditions. The results suggest that aspen SRC plantations
are a suitable contribution to regional CO2 mitigation and carbon sequestration under possible change of climate, but that negative impacts on the regional water budget
are possible. 相似文献
58.
Park SS Kozawa K Fruin S Mara S Hsu YK Jakober C Winer A Herner J 《Journal of the Air & Waste Management Association (1995)》2011,61(10):1046-1056
Fuel-based emission factors for 143 light-duty gasoline vehicles (LDGVs) and 93 heavy-duty diesel trucks (HDDTs) were measured in Wilmington, CA using a zero-emission mobile measurement platform (MMP). The frequency distributions of emission factors of carbon monoxide (CO), nitrogen oxides (NO(x)), and particle mass with aerodynamic diameter below 2.5 microm (PM2.5) varied widely, whereas the average of the individual vehicle emission factors were comparable to those reported in previous tunnel and remote sensing studies as well as the predictions by Emission Factors (EMFAC) 2007 mobile source emission model for Los Angeles County. Variation in emissions due to different driving modes (idle, low- and high-speed acceleration, low- and high-speed cruise) was found to be relatively small in comparison to intervehicle variability and did not appear to interfere with the identification of high emitters, defined as the vehicles whose emissions were more than 5 times the fleet-average values. Using this definition, approximately 5% of the LDGVs and HDDTs measured were high emitters. Among the 143 LDGVs, the average emission factors of NO(x), black carbon (BC), PM2.5, and ultrafine particle (UFP) would be reduced by 34%, 39%, 44%, and 31%, respectively, by removing the highest 5% of emitting vehicles, whereas CO emission factor would be reduced by 50%. The emission distributions of the 93 HDDTs measured were even more skewed: approximately half of the NO(x) and CO fleet-average emission factors and more than 60% of PM2.5, UFP, and BC fleet-average emission factors would be reduced by eliminating the highest-emitting 5% HDDTs. Furthermore, high emissions of BC, PM2.5, and NO(x) tended to cluster among the same vehicles. 相似文献
59.
Contaminants in the coastal karst aquifer system along the Caribbean coast of the Yucatan Peninsula, Mexico 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
Metcalfe CD Beddows PA Bouchot GG Metcalfe TL Li H Van Lavieren H 《Environmental pollution (Barking, Essex : 1987)》2011,159(4):991-997
Intensive land development as a result of the rapidly growing tourism industry in the “Riviera Maya” region of the Yucatan Peninsula, Mexico may result in contamination of groundwater resources that eventually discharge into Caribbean coastal ecosystems. We deployed two types of passive sampling devices into groundwater flowing through cave systems below two communities to evaluate concentrations of contaminants and to indicate the possible sources. Pharmaceuticals and personal care products accumulated in the samplers could only have originated from domestic sewage. PAHs indicated contamination by runoff from highways and other impermeable surfaces and chlorophenoxy herbicides accumulated in samplers deployed near a golf course indicated that pesticide applications to turf are a source of contamination. Prevention and mitigation measures are needed to ensure that expanding development does not impact the marine environment and human health, thus damaging the tourism-based economy of the region. 相似文献
60.
Pujol Pereira EI Chung H Scow K Sadowsky MJ van Kessel C Six J 《Environmental pollution (Barking, Essex : 1987)》2011,159(2):401-407
We investigated the influence of elevated CO2 and O3 on soil N cycling within the soybean growing season and across soil environments (i.e., rhizosphere and bulk soil) at the Soybean Free Air Concentration Enrichment (SoyFACE) experiment in Illinois, USA. Elevated O3 decreased soil mineral N likely through a reduction in plant material input and increased denitrification, which was evidenced by the greater abundance of the denitrifier gene nosZ. Elevated CO2 did not alter the parameters evaluated and both elevated CO2 and O3 showed no interactive effects on nitrifier and denitrifier abundance, nor on total and mineral N concentrations. These results indicate that elevated CO2 may have limited effects on N transformations in soybean agroecosystems. However, elevated O3 can lead to a decrease in soil N availability in both bulk and rhizosphere soils, and this likely also affects ecosystem productivity by reducing the mineralization rates of plant-derived residues. 相似文献