A framework for evaluating regional-scale numerical photochemical modeling systems

This paper discusses the need for critically evaluating regional-scale (~200–2,000 km) three-dimensional numerical photochemical air quality modeling systems to establish a model’s credibility in simulating the spatio-temporal features embedded in the observations. Because of limitations of currently used approaches for evaluating regional air quality models, a framework for model evaluation is introduced here for determining the suitability of a modeling system for a given application, distinguishing the performance between different models through confidence-testing of model results, guiding model development and analyzing the impacts of regulatory policy options. The framework identifies operational, diagnostic, dynamic, and probabilistic types of model evaluation. Operational evaluation techniques include statistical and graphical analyses aimed at determining whether model estimates are in agreement with the observations in an overall sense. Diagnostic evaluation focuses on process-oriented analyses to determine whether the individual processes and components of the model system are working correctly, both independently and in combination. Dynamic evaluation assesses the ability of the air quality model to simulate changes in air quality stemming from changes in source emissions and/or meteorology, the principal forces that drive the air quality model. Probabilistic evaluation attempts to assess the confidence that can be placed in model predictions using techniques such as ensemble modeling and Bayesian model averaging. The advantages of these types of model evaluation approaches are discussed in this paper.     

Frugivory is associated with low measures of plasma oxidative stress and high antioxidant concentration in free-ranging bats

Oxidative stress—an imbalance between reactive pro- and neutralising antioxidants—damages cell structures and impairs fitness-relevant traits such as longevity and reproduction. Theory predicts that feeding on diets with high antioxidant content such as fruits should reduce oxidative stress; however, there is no support of this idea in free-ranging mammals. Bats cover a large variety of ecological niches, and therefore, we asked if measures of oxidative stress are lower in species with fruit diets. We measured reactive oxygen metabolites (ROM) representing total pro-oxidants produced and antioxidants in the plasma of 33 Neotropical bat species. Species with a fruit diet showed the lowest level of ROM and the highest concentration of antioxidants, followed by omnivorous and animalivorous species. Potentially, frugivorous species ingest more antioxidants with food and thus are able to neutralise more pro-oxidants than species not feeding on fruits, resulting in an overall lower level of oxidative stress. We therefore showed for the first time that measures of oxidative stress vary according to diets in free-ranging mammals.     

pH-dependent release of cadmium,copper, and lead from natural and sludge-amended soils

The pH-dependent release of cadmium, copper, and lead from soil materials was studied by use of a stirred flow cell to quantify their release and release rates, and to evaluate the method as a test for the bonding strength and potential mobility of heavy metals in soils. Soil materials from sludge-amended and nonamended A horizons from a Thai coarse-textured Kandiustult and a Danish loamy Hapludalf were characterized and tested. For each soil sample, release experiments with steady state pH values in the range 2.9 to 7.1 and duration of 7 d were performed. The effluent was continuously collected and analyzed. Release rates and total releases were higher for the Hapludalf than the Kandiustult and higher for the sludge-amended soils than the nonamended soils. With two exceptions the relative release rates (release rate/total content of metal in soil) plotted vs. steady state pH followed the same curves for each metal, indicating similar bonding strengths. These curves could be described by a rate expression of the form: relative release rate = k[H+]a, with specific a (empirical constant) and k (rate constant) parameters for each metal demonstrating that metal release in these systems can be explained by proton-induced desorption and dissolution reactions. With decreasing pH, pronounced increases in release rates were observed in the sequence cadmium > lead > copper, which express the order of metal lability in the soils. The flow cell system is useful for comparison of metal releases as a function of soil properties, and can be used as a test to rank soils with respect to heavy metal leaching.     

Monitoring in the Tualatin River Basin to assess the effectiveness of the Oregon Forest Practicers Program: Preliminary results of phosphorus monitoring

The Oregon Department of Forestry is a designated management agency to provide a forestry program to assist in bringing the Tualatin River into complicance with pH and dissolved oxygen water quality standards. The Oregon Environmental Quality Commission set a total maximum daily load (TMDL) of 70 µg/l total phosphorus to control algae growth and meet these standards. The Department of Forestry has a basin effectiveness monitoring plan to determine that the Oregon Forest Practice Rules' BMPs are maintaining adequate control of phosphorus loadings from forest operations. Three sites monitored during May to October of 1990 were augmented by eight more sites in 1991. As laboratory methods were refined, the results became more accurate. The 1991 monitoring showed lower phosphorus levels that were consistent for each tributary. Mean total phosphorus levels ranged from 17 to 65 µg/l. Preliminary field reconnaissance suggests a correlation between phosphorus levels and underlying geology. Concentrations were lowest at sites underlain by tertiary intrusive basalts, next higher for sites with terrestrial basalt, next higher for one site with a basalt-sandstone bedrock mix, and highest for sites underlain predominately by sandstone. These results may be modified by 1992 monitoring and further analysis.     

Ozone and natural systems: understanding exposure,response, and risk

Research aimed at understanding the response of plants to ozone has been conducted for over four decades but little of it has addressed intact natural systems. Even so, there is sufficient scientific information at this time to support air quality standards that will protect natural terrestrial ecosystems from ozone. What is unknown is the risk associated with continued exposure of natural systems, including both above- and below-ground components, in combination with other stresses including changing temperature and precipitation, elevated carbon dioxide, pests and pathogens, invasive species, and other activities that may fragment the landscape. Research to support an assessment of the ecological risk associated with ozone as it exists, in a milieu of stresses, must include endpoints beyond those addressed in the past, primarily productivity and species composition. To estimate the risk to society of ozone impacts on natural systems, endpoints such as the integrity of soil food webs, the quantity and quality of water supplied from terrestrial ecosystems, wildlife and recreational values, and the transfer and fate of carbon, nutrients, and water within the systems must be quantified. Not only will this research provide the basis for a sound estimate of risk, but also it will improve our understanding of fundamental ecosystem processes.