A hierarchical Bayesian non-linear spatio-temporal model for the spread of invasive species with application to the Eurasian Collared-Dove

The spread of invasive species is a long studied subject that garners much interest in the ecological research community. Historically the phenomenon has been approached using a purely deterministic mathematical framework (usually involving differential equations of some form). These methods, while scientifically meaningful, are generally highly simplified and fail to account for uncertainty in the data and process, of which our knowledge could not possibly exist without error. We propose a hierarchical Bayesian model for population spread that accommodates data sources with errors, dependence structures between population dynamics parameters, and takes into account prior scientific understanding via non-linear relationships between model parameters and space-time response variables. We model the process (i.e., the bird population in this case) as a Poisson response with spatially varying diffusion coefficients as well as a logistic population growth term using a common reaction-diffusion equation that realistically mimics the ecological process. We focus the application on the ongoing invasion of the Eurasian Collared-Dove.     

Effects of timber harvesting on pond-breeding amphibian persistence: testing the evacuation hypothesis.

Numerous studies have documented the decline of amphibians following timber harvest. However, direct evidence concerning the mechanisms of population decline is lacking and hinders attempts to develop conservation or recovery plans and solutions for forest species. We summarized the mechanisms by which abundance of amphibians may initially decline following timber harvest into three testable hypotheses: (1) mortality, (2) retreat, and (3) evacuation. Here, we tested the evacuation hypothesis within a large-scale, replicated experiment. We used drift fences with pitfall traps to capture pond-breeding amphibians moving out of experimental clearcut quadrants and into control quadrants at four replicate arrays located within the Daniel Boone Conservation Area on the upper Ozark Plateau in Warren County, Missouri, USA. During the preharvest year of 2004, only 51.6% of the 312 individuals captured were moving out of pre-clearcut quadrants, and movement did not differ from random. In contrast, during both postharvest years of 2005 and 2006, the number of captures along the quadrant edge increased, and a higher proportion of individuals (59.9% and 56.6%, respectively, by year) were moving out of clearcut quadrants than entering. Salamanders moved out of clearcuts in large percentages (Ambystoma annulatum, 78.2% in 2005, 78.2% in 2006; A. maculatum, 64.0% in 2005, 57.1% in 2006). Frogs and toads also moved out of clearcut quadrants, but in lower percentages (Bufo americanus, 59.6% in 2005, 53.3% in 2006; Rana clamitans, 52.7% in 2006). Salamanders moved out of clearcuts with low-wood treatments more than out of clearcuts with high-wood treatments. Movement of salamanders out of clearcuts was independent of sex. Estimated movement out of clearcuts represented between 8.7% and 35.0% of the total breeding adults captured for two species of salamanders. Although we recognize that some portion of the amphibian population may retreat underground for short periods and others may not survive the effects of timber harvest, these data are the first direct evidence showing that individuals are capable of leaving clearcuts and shifting habitat use.     

Quantitative approaches to the analysis of stable isotope food web data

Ecologists use stable isotopes (delta13C, delta15N) to better understand food webs and explore trophic interactions in ecosystems. Traditionally, delta13C vs. delta15N bi-plots have been used to describe food web structure for a single time period or ecosystem. Comparisons of food webs across time and space are increasing, but development of statistical approaches for testing hypotheses regarding food web change has lagged behind. Here we present statistical methodologies for quantitatively comparing stable isotope food web data. We demonstrate the utility of circular statistics and hypothesis tests for quantifying directional food web differences using two case studies: an arthropod salt marsh community across a habitat gradient and a freshwater fish community from Lake Tahoe, USA, over a 120-year time period. We calculated magnitude and mean angle of change (theta) for each species in food web space using mean delta13C and delta15N of each species as the x, y coordinates. In the coastal salt marsh, arthropod consumers exhibited a significant shift toward dependence on Spartina, progressing from a habitat invaded by Phragmites to a restored Spartina habitat. In Lake Tahoe, we found that all species from the freshwater fish community shifted in the same direction in food web space toward more pelagic-based production with the introduction of nonnative Mysis relicta and onset of cultural eutrophication. Using circular statistics to quantitatively analyze stable isotope food web data, we were able to gain significant insight into patterns and changes in food web structure that were not evident from qualitative comparisons. As more ecologists incorporate a food web perspective into ecosystem analysis, these statistical tools can provide a basis for quantifying directional food web differences from standard isotope data.     

Assessing Landowner Activities Related to Birds Across Rural-to-Urban Landscapes

Fluctuations of bird abundances in the Midwest region of the United States have been attributed to such factors as landscape change, habitat fragmentation, depredation, and supplemental feeding. However, no attempt has been made to estimate the collective role of landowner activities that may influence birds across a landscape. To investigate how landowners might influence birds when the majority (> 90%) of land is privately owned, we surveyed all 1694 private domestic landowners living on three breeding bird survey routes (120 km) that represent a continuum of rural-to-urban landscapes in Southeastern Michigan from October through December 2000. Our survey was designed to investigate (1) the proportion of landowners involved in bird feeding, providing bird houses, planting or maintaining vegetation for birds, gardening, landscaping, applying fertilizer, and applying pesticides or herbicides; (2) whether differences existed between urban, suburban, and rural landowner activities; and (3) whether landowners that carried out a given activity were sociodemographically different from those who did not. Of the 968 respondents (58.5% response rate), 912 (94%) carried out at least one of the activities on their land and the average landowner carried out 3.7 activities. A total of 65.6% fed birds, 45.7% provided bird houses, 54.6% planted or maintained vegetation for birds, 72.7% gardened, 72.3% landscaped, 49.3% applied fertilizer, and 25.2% applied pesticides or herbicides. Significant differences existed between the landscapes, with rural landowners having more bird houses and applying pesticides or herbicides in greater frequency. Similarly, urban landowners had a greater density of bird feeders and houses, but planted or maintained vegetation in the lowest frequency. Participation in activities varied by demographic factors, such as age, gender, and occupation. Scaling each activity to all landowners, including nonrespondents, across all landscapes indicates that between 14% and 82% of landowners may be engaged in a particular activity, with application of pesticides or herbicides having the least potential involvement (13.9%–55.4%) and gardening having the greatest potential involvement (40.1%–81.6%). Taken collectively, our results indicate that landowners are both intentionally and unintentionally engaged in a wide range of activities that are likely to influence bird populations.     

Uptake of some selected aquatic pollutants in semipermeable membrane devices (SPMDs) and the polar organic chemical integrative sampler (POCIS)

The uptake characteristics of semipermeable membrane devices (SPMDs) and polar organic chemical integrative samplers (POCISs) were examined for mono, di and tributyltin, triphenyltin, pyrene, benzo[a]pyrene, 4-tert-butylphenol, 4-n-nonylphenol, PCBs 77 and 153, PBDE 47, lindane, triclosan and DDT. Exposure in a flow through system continued for 28 days with samplers removed every 7 days in order to study the relevant uptake kinetics. Uptake remained linear for POCISs with sampling rates (Rs) of up to 0.2 L d(-1). For SPMDs uptake varied from linear to approaching equilibrium with Rs values of up to 14 L d(-1). 7 out of 9 results for SPMDs could be explained by an empirical model (nonylphenol and lindane were exceptions). None of the four organo-tin compounds studied were detected in POCISs and only tributyltin was accumulated significantly by SPMDs. The establishment of these sampling rates allows the calculation of time weighted water concentrations for several important contaminants. Using presented methods, sampling rates and exposure conditions, theoretical detection limits for selected compounds by SPMDs were between 11-68 pg L(-1), which is well below the environment quality standard proposed for those compounds that are included in the European Water Framework Directive.     

State-specific detection probabilities and disease prevalence.

Investigations of disease dynamics in wild animal populations often use estimated prevalence or incidence as a measure of true disease frequency. Such indices, almost always based solely on raw counts of infected and uninfected individuals, are often used as the basis for analysis of temporal and spatial dynamics of diseases. Generally, such studies do not account for potential differences in observer detection probabilities of host individuals stratified by biotic and/or abiotic factors. We demonstrate the potential effects of heterogeneity in state-specific detection probabilities on estimated disease prevalence using mark-recapture data from previous work in a House Finch (Carpodacus mexicanus) and Mycoplasma gallisepticum system. In this system, detection probabilities of uninfected finches were generally higher than infected individuals. We show that the magnitude and seasonal pattern of variation in estimated prevalence, corrected for differences in detection probabilities, differed markedly from uncorrected (apparent) prevalence. When the detection probability of uninfected individuals is higher than infected individuals (as in our study), apparent prevalence is negatively biased, and vice versa. In situations where state-specific detection probabilities strongly interact over time, we show that the magnitude and pattern of apparent prevalence can change dramatically; in such cases, observed variations in prevalence may be completely spurious artifacts of variation in detection probability, rather than changes in underlying disease dynamics. Accounting for differential detection probabilities in estimates of disease frequency removes a potentially confounding factor in studies seeking to identify biotic and/or abiotic drivers of disease dynamics. Given that detection probabilities of different groups of individuals are likely to change temporally and spatially in most field studies, our results underscore the importance of estimating and incorporating detection probabilities in estimated disease prevalence (specifically), and more generally, any ecological index used to estimate some parameter of interest. While a mark-recapture approach makes it possible to estimate detection probabilities, it is not always practical, especially at large scales. We discuss several alternative approaches and categorize the assumptions under which analysis of uncorrected prevalence may be acceptable.