Water Quality Model Uncertainty Analysis of a Point‐Point Source Phosphorus Trading Program1

Kardos, Josef S. and Christopher C. Obropta, 2011. Water Quality Model Uncertainty Analysis of a Point‐Point Source Phosphorus Trading Program. Journal of the American Water Resources Association (JAWRA) 47(6):1317–1337. DOI: 10.1111/j.1752‐1688.2011.00591.x Abstract: Water quality modeling is a major source of scientific uncertainty in the Total Maximum Daily Load (TMDL) process. The effects of these uncertainties extend to water quality trading programs designed to implement TMDLs. This study examines the effects of water quality model uncertainty on a nutrient trading program. The study builds on previous work to design a phosphorus trading program for the Nontidal Passaic River Basin in New Jersey that would implement the watershed TMDL for total phosphorus (TP). The study identified how water quality model uncertainty affects outcomes of potential trades of TP between wastewater treatment plants. The uncertainty analysis found no evidence to suggest that the outcome of trades between wastewater treatment plants, as compared with command and control regulation, will significantly increase uncertainty in the attainment of dissolved oxygen surface water quality standards, site‐specific chlorophyll a criteria, and reduction targets for diverted TP load at potential hot spots in the watershed. Each simulated trading scenario demonstrated parity with or improvement from the command and control approach at the TMDL critical locations, and low risk of hot spots elsewhere.     

From agricultural intensification to conservation: sediment transport in the Raccoon River, Iowa, 1916-2009

Fluvial sediment is a ubiquitous pollutant that negatively affects surface water quality and municipal water supply treatment. As part of its routine water supply monitoring, the Des Moines Water Works (DMWW) has been measuring turbidity daily in the Raccoon River since 1916. For this study, we calibrated daily turbidity readings to modern total suspended solid (TSS) concentrations to develop an estimation of daily sediment concentrations in the river from 1916 to 2009. Our objectives were to evaluate long-term TSS patterns and trends, and relate these to changes in climate, land use, and agricultural practices that occurred during the 93-yr monitoring period. Results showed that while TSS concentrations and estimated sediment loads varied greatly from year to year, TSS concentrations were much greater in the early 20th century despite drier conditions and less discharge, and declined throughout the century. Against a backdrop of increasing discharge in the Raccoon River and widespread agricultural adaptations by farmers, sediment loads increased and peaked in the early 1970s, and then have slowly declined or remained steady throughout the 1980s to present. With annual sediment load concentrated during extreme events in the spring and early summer, continued sediment reductions in the Raccoon River watershed should be focused on conservation practices to reduce rainfall impacts and sediment mobilization. Overall, results from this study suggest that efforts to reduce sediment load from the watershed appear to be working.     

Urban ecological systems: scientific foundations and a decade of progress

Urban ecological studies, including focus on cities, suburbs, and exurbs, while having deep roots in the early to mid 20th century, have burgeoned in the last several decades. We use the state factor approach to highlight the role of important aspects of climate, substrate, organisms, relief, and time in differentiating urban from non-urban areas, and for determining heterogeneity within spatially extensive metropolitan areas. In addition to reviewing key findings relevant to each state factor, we note the emergence of tentative "urban syndromes" concerning soils, streams, wildlife and plants, and homogenization of certain ecosystem functions, such as soil organic carbon dynamics. We note the utility of the ecosystem approach, the human ecosystem framework, and watersheds as integrative tools to tie information about multiple state factors together. The organismal component of urban complexes includes the social organization of the human population, and we review key modes by which human populations within urban areas are differentiated, and how such differentiation affects environmentally relevant actions. Emerging syntheses in land change science and ecological urban design are also summarized. The multifaceted frameworks and the growing urban knowledge base do however identify some pressing research needs.     

Incubation time, functional litter diversity, and habitat characteristics predict litter-mixing effects on decomposition

Plant diversity influences many fundamental ecosystem functions, including carbon and nutrient dynamics, during litter breakdown. Mixing different litter species causes litter mixtures to lose mass at different rates than expected from component species incubated in isolation. Such nonadditive litter-mixing effects on breakdown processes often occur idiosyncratically because their direction and magnitude change with incubation time, litter species composition, and ecosystem characteristics. Taking advantage of results from 18 litter mixture experiments in streams, we examined whether the direction and magnitude of nonadditive mixing effects are randomly determined. Across 171 tested litter mixtures and 510 incubation time-by-mixture combinations, nonadditive effects on breakdown were common and on average resulted in slightly faster decomposition than expected. In addition, we found that the magnitude of nonadditive effects and the relative balance of positive and negative responses in mixtures change predictably over time, and both were related to an index of functional litter diversity and selected environmental characteristics. Based on these, it should be expected that nonadditive effects are stronger for litter mixtures made of functionally dissimilar species especially in smaller streams. Our findings demonstrate that effects of litter diversity on plant mixture breakdown are more predictable than generally thought. We further argue that the consequences of current worldwide homogenization in the composition of plant traits on carbon and nutrient dynamics could be better inferred from long-duration experiments that manipulate both functional litter diversity and ecosystem characteristics in "hotspots of biodiversity effects," such as small streams.     

Dispersal potential of invasive algae: the determinants of buoyancy in <Emphasis Type="Italic">Codium fragile</Emphasis> ssp. <Emphasis Type="Italic">fragile</Emphasis>

The capacity for long-distance dispersal is an important factor in determining the spread of invasive species. For algae, positive buoyancy generally is correlated with increased dispersal potential, and the light environment has been previously identified as a possible determinant of buoyancy in several species. We examined the effect of light intensity on the buoyancy of fragments of the invasive green alga Codium fragile ssp. fragile. Under natural and controlled conditions, the buoyancy of samples taken from the thallus tip was higher than those from near the holdfast. Both laboratory and field experiments also showed that buoyancy was dynamic and switched from positive to negative under reduced light intensity, but this change required several days. We also observed seasonal changes in buoyancy, presumably due to natural variations in light intensity, with the buoyancy of fragments washed up on the shore highest in mid-summer. These results show that buoyancy is a dynamic property of the C. fragile ssp. fragile thallus and suggest that buoyant fragments contribute to long-range dispersal and accelerated regional spread of this invader. This finding suggests that dispersal is more likely during conditions of high light intensity and illustrates the need to understand how variations in the natural environment can affect the dispersal potential of invasive species.     

The relationship between agricultural intensification and biological control: experimental tests across Europe

Agricultural intensification can affect biodiversity and related ecosystem services such as biological control, but large-scale experimental evidence is missing. We examined aphid pest populations in cereal fields under experimentally reduced densities of (1) ground-dwelling predators (-G), (2) vegetation-dwelling predators and parasitoids (-V), (3) a combination of (1) and (2) (-G-V), compared with open-fields (control), in contrasting landscapes with low vs. high levels of agricultural intensification (AI), and in five European regions. Aphid populations were 28%, 97%, and 199% higher in -G, -V, and -G-V treatments, respectively, compared to the open fields, indicating synergistic effects of both natural-enemy groups. Enhanced parasitoid: host and predator: prey ratios were related to reduced aphid population density and population growth. The relative importance of parasitoids and vegetation-dwelling predators greatly differed among European regions, and agricultural intensification affected biological control and aphid density only in some regions. This shows a changing role of species group identity in diverse enemy communities and a need to consider region-specific landscape management.     

Information technology and emergency management: preparedness and planning in US states

The purpose of this paper is to examine the impact of information technology (IT) on emergency preparedness and planning by analysing a survey of US state government departments of emergency management. The research results show that there has been a significant impact of IT on emergency planning. IT has proven to be effective for all phases of emergency management, but especially for the response phase. There are numerous technologies used in emergency management, ranging from the internet, Geographic Information Systems and wireless technologies to more advanced hazard analysis models. All were generally viewed as being effective. Lack of financial resources and support from elected officials is a perennial problem in public administration, and was found to be prevalent in this study of IT and emergency management. There was evidence that state governments rating high on a performance index were more likely to use IT for emergency management.     

Swimming behavior of juvenile anchovies (<Emphasis Type="Italic">Anchoa</Emphasis> spp.) in an episodically hypoxic estuary: implications for individual energetics and trophic dynamics

Diel swimming behaviors of juvenile anchovies (Anchoa spp.) were observed using stationary hydroacoustics and synoptic physicochemical and zooplankton profiles during four unique water quality scenarios in the Neuse River Estuary, NC, USA. Vertical distribution of fish was restricted to waters with DO greater than 2.5 mg O₂ l⁻¹, except when greater than 70% of the water column was hypoxic and a subset of fish were occupying water with 1 mg O₂ l⁻¹. We made the prediction that an individual fish would select a swim speed that would maximize net energy gain given the abundance and availability of prey in the normoxic waters. During the day, fish adopted swim speeds between 7 and 8.8 bl s⁻¹ that were near the theoretical optimum speeds between 7.0 and 8.0 bl s⁻¹. An exception was found during severe hypoxia, when fish were swimming at 60% above the optimum speed (observed speed = 10.6 bl s⁻¹, expected = 6.4 bl s⁻¹). The anchovy is a visual planktivore; therefore, we expected a diel activity pattern characteristic of a diurnal species, with quiescence at night to minimize energetic costs. Under stratified and hypoxic conditions with high fish density coupled with limited prey availability, anchovies sustained high swimming speeds at night. The sustained nighttime activity resulted in estimated daily energy expenditure over 20% greater than fish that adopted a diurnal activity pattern. We provide evidence that the sustained nighttime activity patterns are a result of foraging at night due to a lower ration achieved during the day. During severe hypoxic events, we also observed individual fish making brief forays into the hypoxic hypolimnion. These bottom waters generally contained higher prey (copepod) concentrations than the surface waters. The bay anchovy, a facultative particle forager, adopts a range of behaviors to compensate for the effects of increased conspecific density and reduced prey availability in the presence of stratification-induced hypoxia.