BiOBr分子印迹材料的制备及其降解诺氟沙星性能

为了有效处理低浓度抗生素残留废水,以水热法制备的BiOBr为载体,诺氟沙星（NOR）为模板,通过表面分子印迹法制备了BiOBr分子印迹材料（MIP）.同时,采用SEM与XRD对制备的材料进行相分析及显微结构分析,并利用XPS、FTIR、BET和UV-Vis DRS对所合成材料的微观结构进行观察.最后,以诺氟沙星（NOR）为目标污染物,对MIP在暗反应下的吸附性能及300 W Xe灯照射下的光催化性能进行测定,并探讨pH、投加量、初始浓度、是否印迹处理对NOR去除的影响.实验结果表明,在pH为中性,MIP投加量为2.5 g·L^-1的条件下,MIP对5 mg·L^-1 NOR溶液的去除率达到96.2%,且对低浓度（1 mg·L^-1）NOR溶液的去除率达到99%.综合表明,本文所制备的MIP适用于低浓度诺氟沙星废水的处理.     

基于相关向量机的飞行安全评价方法

飞行安全评价有利于预防和减小飞行事故,改善飞行安全管理水平,提高飞行安全决策的合理性和科学性。为提高飞行系统的安全性,提出了基于相关向量机的飞行安全评价方法。首先,引入了贝叶斯框架下学习的相关向量机,并介绍了其基本原理和建模过程,然后,基于系统观点,结合飞行安全的实际情况,从人、装备、环境和管理四方面,确定了影响飞行系统安全的基本要素,建立飞行安全评价指标体系,最后,在飞行安全评价指标体系基础上,构建飞行安全的相关向量机评价模型,它的优点在于,无需分析系统内部诸多因素的关系,并能够自适应调整飞行安全影响要素的权重。实例表明:对于飞行安全评价问题,相关向量机方法构造新颖,应用简便,评价结果也更能反映飞行安全的实际情况。     

基于突发事件生命周期视角的应急物流虚拟联合体的运行模型研究

从突发事件生命周期视角出发,对突发事件的生命周期动态演化全过程进行研究,将突发事件的生命周期分为潜伏期、爆发期、蔓延期、恢复期四个阶段,并深入分析突发事件阶段性特点,推知每一阶段物资需求和应急物流特性。通过跟踪突发事件生命周期演化过程,相应地将应急物流虚拟联合体的运行分为酝酿期、组建起、运行期、终止期四个阶段,并根据每一阶段应急物流特性构建应急物流虚拟联合体在各周期阶段的运行模型,最后阐述了虚拟联合体运行的几点注意事项。目的是切实有效地集成和整合社会专业资源,科学指导应急物流虚拟联合体的社会实践,提高突发事件整体应对能力。     

China＇s Land Carrying Capacity Based on Man-grain Relationships

With population growth and increasing pressure on land resources, land carrying capacity （LCC） and food safety have been attracting great attention worldwide. From the point of man-grain relationship and by establishing LCC and land carrying capacity index （LCCI） models, this article firstly analyzes the spatial-temporal dynamics of LCC of China from 1949 to 2005 at county, provincial and national levels. Choosing 2005 as a representative year, this article then evaluates the LCC of 264 pastoral regions （semipastoral regions）, 663 urban regions and 592 poverty stricken regions of the country. The results show that： （1） from 1949 to 2005, with the increase of grain production, the LCC of China has been improved conspicuously, but due to the rapid population growth, the production can only maintain a low level grain consumption; （2） over the past 25 years （1980-2005）, the number of population overloading provinces decreased from 23 to 15 and the mangrain relationship has been improved gradually, but there were more overloading provinces than surplus provinces in China; （3） at county level, there were 1572 overloading counties in 1980 accounting for 68.26% of the total counties of the country and where were 649 million people lived, while in 1990, 2000 and 2005, the number of overloading counties were 1066, 1133 and 1087 respectively, which shows that the man-grain relationship has been improved obviously during the past 25 years; as for spatial distribution, the surplus counties were mainly concentrated in agriculture developed regions, such as Northeast Plain, North China Plain, middle and lower Reaches of the Yangtze River Plain, and overloading counties were mainly located in regions with poor natural environment and low grain production capacity, such as Northwest China, Tibetan Plateau and Loess Plateau and economically developed urban regions, such as Beijing, Tianjin and Shanghai; （4） animal husbandry improved greatly the LCC of pastoral and semi-pastoral regions, while urban regions were overloading for increasing population pressure and more than half of poverty stricken regions were overloading due to critical natural environment and poor economic conditions.     

基于综合指数模型的航空装备安全评价

针对航空装备安全评价中存在的主观偏向性和指标难以定量描述等问题,选取飞行事故、地面事故、事故征候万时率及重大危险性故障数作为评价指标,采用层次分析法和熵值法组合的权重计算方法,建立基于综合指数的航空装备安全评价模型,以4个航空单位为例对其航空装备安全进行综合评价,验证了该模型的合理性和可靠性,为航空装备安全决策与控制措施提供了理论依据。     

MICP技术加固岩石节理的力学机理试验研究∗

微生物诱导碳酸盐沉淀(MICP)是近年国内外兴起的一种微生物岩土技术,即利用微生物新陈代谢的矿化作用诱导产生碳酸盐沉淀,在土体抗液化、堤坝加固等领域得到广泛实验和应用,相较传统边坡加固手段,其绿色环保的特点更符合可持续发展理念。为探究MICP技术在完全分离的岩石节理试件中的胶结效果,通过一种可采用流体分阶段胶结岩石节理面的实验装置,实现MICP胶结液对岩石节理试件的胶结,在不同法向应力下探究其抗剪强度。结果表明:(1)MICP技术对岩石节理具有一定胶结作用;(2)随剪切位移的增加,MICP胶结实验组与无充填对照组的剪切强度维持一致,即二者抗剪残余应力基本相等;(3)胶结养护7 d的抗剪强度可达无充填对照组的85%。     

战略环境影响评价及其在我国实施的必要性

本文简要介绍了战略环境影响评价（SEA）的产生，涵义，特点及研究现状，分析了当前我国环境影响评价存在的主要问题，重点论述了SEA在我国实施的必要性，阐明了SEA是实现可持续发展和改善我国环境评价质量的重要手段。     

Regional distribution of organochlorinated pesticides in pine needles and its indication for socioeconomic development

The regional distribution of 10 potentially harmful organochlorinated pesticides (OCPs) was investigated in pine needles from 18 sites in six Chinese regions. The OCPs concentrations in six regions were as follows: sigmaHCH (sigmaHCH=alpha-+beta-+gamma-+delta-HCH), 4.7-51.5 ng/g; sigmaDDT (p,p'-DDT+p,p'-DDE+p,p'-DDD), 0.9-30.9 ng/g; hexachlorobenzene (HCB), 1.1-5.3 ng/g; sigmachlordane (cis-chlordane+trans-chlordane), no detected-4.3 ng/g, on dry weight basis. Samples from southeast Chinese area contained the highest concentrations of sigmaHCH, sigmaDDT and sigmachlordane, while the contamination levels of most OCPs in southwest Chinese area were the lowest. The ratios of alpha/gamma-HCH (ranged from 1.7 to 5) were observed to be noticeable increase from north to south China, and the ratio of 1.7 revealed the presence of the recent use of lindane in north Chinese area. The significant decrease of the sum concentrations of alpha-+gamma-HCH from mid-1980s to the present and the strong correlation between alpha-, beta-, gamma-, delta-HCH (r=0.87-0.98, n=18, p<0.05) indicated the main usage of the technical HCH in history in China. The p,p'-DDE/p,p'-DDT ratios of <1 revealed the new input of p,p'-DDT in south, southeast and southwest Chinese areas, which could be partly contributed to the new use of impure dicofol. Economic development will leave its mark in the environment, however, its impact on the input and distribution of OCPs on a regional scale is unknown. We attempted to use the socioeconomic index (gross domestic product (GDP) per capita) to explain the distribution and input of OCPs and found that HCB and sigmaDDT seemed to be linked to the economic development, while no relationship of HCH was observed. DDE% of sigmaDDT also showed a negative correlation with the GDP per capita.     

机械原因飞行事故诱因的分析与预测研究

为更好地预防机械原因飞行事故,提高安全管理和决策的水平,提出机械原因飞行事故诱因的分析与预测方法。首先借鉴"瑞士奶酪"模型的思想,建立了机械原因飞行事故诱因分析分类体系;而后构建了事故的二进制矩阵,通过进行比例矩阵分析和单一聚类分析来辨识重要的单诱因、两两诱因组合和事故主要诱发模式;最后采用Bootstrap方法对其进行预测。结果表明:所提出的方法能够辨识出机械原因飞行事故中的重要单诱因、两两诱因组合和主要诱发模式,并对其做出较为准确的预测,进而对制订事故防控预案,预防此类事故的发生具有重要意义。     

航空装备事故的灰色时序组合预测模型

为提高航空装备事故预测水平,提出一种基于灰色和时间序列分析模型的航空装备事故组合预测模型。先构建灰色模型,提取历史数据中承载的趋势信息。然后进行模型选择、阶数识别和参数估计,建立灰色残差的时间序列分析模型,用以刻画历史数据中的随机波动特征。最后,将2个模型的预测值相加,得到所求的组合预测结果。实例中,以美国空军1996—1999年的A级飞行事故10万时率数据为基础,建立灰色时序组合模型,模型中短期预测精度优于单一灰色模型,平均相对误差控制在5%以内,预测结果能够反映航空装备安全的实际状况。