EVALUATION OF GREAT LAKES NET BASIN SUPPLY FORECASTS1

ABSTRACT: Evaluation of the Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory's (GLERL's) physically-based monthly net basin supply forecast method reveals component errors and the effects of model improvements for use on the Laurentian Great Lakes. While designed for probabilistic outlooks, it is assessed for giving deterministic outlooks along with other net basin supply forecast methods of the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers and Environment Canada, and with a stochastic approach commissioned by the Corps. The methods are compared to a simple clima-tological forecast and to actual time series of net basin supplies. Aetual net basin supplies are currently determined by estimating all components directly, instead of as water-balance residuals. This is judged more accurate and appropriate for both forecasting and simulation. GLERL's physically-based method forecasts component supplies while the other methods are based on residual supplies. These other methods should be rederived to be based on component supplies. For each of these other methods, differences between their outlooks and residual supplies are used as error estimates for the rederived methods and component supplies. The evaluations are made over a recent period of record high levels followed by a record drought. Net basin supply outlooks are better than climatology, and GLERL's physically-based method performs best with regard to either component or residual net basin supplies. Until advances are made in long-range climate outlooks, deterministic supply outlooks cannot be improved significantly.     

Improved direct molecular diagnosis and rapid fetal sexing

Adaptations of the techniques of modern molecular biology to prenatal diagnosis has opened new avenues for the detection of genetic diseases. We have taken advantage of the rapid adhesion of colony forming cells in cultured amniotic fluid samples to develop an improved method for molecular diagnosis. By employing the cell adherence regime sickle cell diagnosis using Mst II can be undertaken directly. In addition, hybridization with a cloned repetitive sequence that is of Y origin and has limited autosomal homology permits rapid fetal sexing in 3 to 4 days without compromising conventional cytogenetic or biochemical analysis. This combination of techniques provides a useful adjunct to convential prenatal genetic diagnosis in the second trimester.     

Availability and Extraction of Forest Products in Managed and Primary Forest around a Dayak Village in West Kalimantan, Indonesia

We examined the density and abundance of marketable products in managed forest (rubber gardens, fruit gardens, and dry rice fallows) and in primary forest surrounding the Dayak village of Kembera, near Gunung Palung National Park, West Kalimantan, Indonesia. We calculated the proportion of trees that were marketable and useful for local consumption by counting and identifying trees in each managed forest type, and we documented extraction of products through interviews. Villagers harvested four marketable tree products: tengkawang seeds ( Shorea stenoptera ), durian fruits (various Durio spp.), rubber ( Hevea brasiliensis ), and timber, especially Bornean ironwood ( Eusideroxylon zwageri ). We inventoried trees at least 20 cm diameter at breast height (dbh) of marketed species from 0.4-ha plots in primary forest ( n = 8) and from 0.1-ha plots in each managed forest type ( n = 10–11). With the exception of timber, the density of trees producing a marketable product was significantly higher in the forest type managed for that product than the density of the marketed species, or of similar wild species, in primary forest. Total abundance (product of density and available area) of durian and tengkawang was greater in primary forest; however, villagers gathered these products only from managed forest. We infer from this choice a greater efficiency of harvesting from trees in dense stands near the village. Historically, this choice resulted in deliberate development of fruit gardens in preference or in addition to gathering from the more distant, primary forest. Because of low product density in primary forest, extractive forest reserves or buffer zones designed to encourage the production of fruits such as tengkawang or durian may not provide a sufficient incentive for the protection of primary forest around Kembera and other Dayak villages near Gunung Palung National Park.     

Managing Public Forests: Understanding the Role of Collaborative Planning

/ As federal land management agencies such as the USDA Forest Service increasingly choose to implement collaborative methods of public participation, research is needed to evaluate the strengths and weaknesses of the technique, to identify barriers to effective implementation of collaborative processes, and to provide recommendations for increasing its effectiveness. This paper reports on the findings of two studies focused on the experiences of Forest Service employees and their external partners as they work to implement collaborative planning processes in national forest management. The studies show both similarities and differences between agency employees and their partners in terms of how they evaluate their collaborative experiences. The studies reveal that both Forest Service employees and external partners are supportive of collaborative planning and expect it to continue in the future, both see the trust and relationships built during the process as being its greatest benefit, and both see the Forest Service's organizational culture as the biggest barrier to effective collaborative efforts. The groups differed in terms of evaluating each other's motivation for participating in the process and in whether the process was a good use of time and resources, with external partners seeing it as too drawn out and expensive. The paper concludes with a discussion of the policy implications and changes necessary to increase the effectiveness of collaborative efforts within the Forest Service and other federal land management agencies.KEY WORDS: Public land management; Collaborative planning; National forests; Public participation     

Accumulation of perchlorate in tobacco plants: development of a plant kinetic model

Previous studies have shown that tobacco plants are tolerant of perchlorate and will accumulate perchlorate in plant tissues. This research determined the uptake, translocation, and accumulation of perchlorate in tobacco plants. Three hydroponics growth studies were completed under greenhouse conditions. Depletion of perchlorate in the hydroponics nutrient solution and accumulation of perchlorate in plant tissues were determined at two-day intervals using ion chromatography. Perchlorate primarily accumulated in tobacco leaves, yielding a substantial storage capacity for perchlorate. Mass balance results show that perchlorate degradation was negligible in plants. Tobacco plants were shown to effectively accumulate perchlorate over a wide range of initial concentrations (10 ppb to 100 ppm) from the hydroponics solution. Results suggest that plants are potential plants for the phytoremediation of perchlorate. A mathematical model was developed to describe the distribution of perchlorate in tobacco plants under rapid growth conditions. The Plant Kinetic (PK) model defined a plant as a set of compartments, described by mass balance differential equations and plant-specific physiological parameters. Data obtained from a separate hydroponics growth study with multiple solution perchlorate concentrations were used to validate predicted root, stem, and leaf concentrations. There was good agreement between model predictions and measured concentrations in the plant. The model, once adequately validated, can be applied to other terrestrial plants and inorganic chemicals currently used for both phytoremediation and ecological risk assessment.     

Mainstreaming the social sciences in conservation

Despite broad recognition of the value of social sciences and increasingly vocal calls for better engagement with the human element of conservation, the conservation social sciences remain misunderstood and underutilized in practice. The conservation social sciences can provide unique and important contributions to society's understanding of the relationships between humans and nature and to improving conservation practice and outcomes. There are 4 barriers—ideological, institutional, knowledge, and capacity—to meaningful integration of the social sciences into conservation. We provide practical guidance on overcoming these barriers to mainstream the social sciences in conservation science, practice, and policy. Broadly, we recommend fostering knowledge on the scope and contributions of the social sciences to conservation, including social scientists from the inception of interdisciplinary research projects, incorporating social science research and insights during all stages of conservation planning and implementation, building social science capacity at all scales in conservation organizations and agencies, and promoting engagement with the social sciences in and through global conservation policy‐influencing organizations. Conservation social scientists, too, need to be willing to engage with natural science knowledge and to communicate insights and recommendations clearly. We urge the conservation community to move beyond superficial engagement with the conservation social sciences. A more inclusive and integrative conservation science—one that includes the natural and social sciences—will enable more ecologically effective and socially just conservation. Better collaboration among social scientists, natural scientists, practitioners, and policy makers will facilitate a renewed and more robust conservation. Mainstreaming the conservation social sciences will facilitate the uptake of the full range of insights and contributions from these fields into conservation policy and practice.