Downscaling and visioning of mountain snow packs and other climate change implications in North Vancouver, British Columbia

This paper provides an overview of a collaborative study on visualizing climate change at the local scale. A conceptual framework has been developed, in which local scenarios and visualizations of climate change impacts and response were created to facilitate local dialogue on incorporating climate change into long-term planning and implementation of community development decisions. As part of a larger effort to generate a new integrated participatory visioning process, this paper describes a case study of the District of North Vancouver which created visualizations of changing mountain snow and landscape conditions, and provides new insights on issues and dilemmas in using realistic landscape visualizations to depict scientific modelling projections, local responses to climate change, and uncertainty. Results from this study suggest that the visualizations, and subsequent dialogue sessions, did influence emotional response to climate change as well as self-assessed understanding of adaptation and mitigation response options. However, there is a need to test this visioning process with larger heterogeneous groups of participants in order to better assess its effectiveness in enabling dialogue on local responses to climate change.     

Development of Federal Air Standards to Reduce Sulfur Dioxide Emissions from New Industrial Boilers

Federal new source performance standards to control air emissions of sulfur dioxide from new industrial boilers were proposed by EPA on June 19, 1986. These standards would require boiler owners to reduce SO₂ emissions by 90 percent and meet an emission limit of 1.2 lb/MM Btu of heat input for coal-fired boilers and 0.8 lb/MM Btu for oil-fired boilers. In developing these standards, several regulatory options were considered, from standards that could be met by firing low sulfur fuels to standards that would necessitate flue gas treatment. The environmental, economic, and cost impacts of each option were analyzed. National impacts were estimated by a computer model that projects the population of new boilers over the 5-year period following proposal, predicts the compliance strategy that will be used to comply with the particular option (always assuming that the lowest cost method of compliance will be selected), and estimates the resulting emission reductions and costs. Impacts on specific industries and on model boilers were also analyzed. This paper focuses on these analyses and their results. The Agency's conclusions from these analyses, which led to the decision to establish percent reduction standards, are provided, and the proposed SO₂ standards are summarized. The proposed standards also include an emission limit for particulate matter from oil-fired boilers (0.1 lb/MM Btu). However, this article focuses only on the SO₂ standards.     

Comparing universal kriging and land-use regression for predicting concentrations of gaseous oxides of nitrogen (NOx) for the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis and Air Pollution (MESA Air)

BACKGROUND: Epidemiological studies that assess the health effects of long-term exposure to ambient air pollution are used to inform public policy. These studies rely on exposure models that use data collected from pollution monitoring sites to predict exposures at subject locations. Land use regression (LUR) and universal kriging (UK) have been suggested as potential prediction methods. We evaluate these approaches on a dataset including measurements from three seasons in Los Angeles, CA. METHODS: The measurements of gaseous oxides of nitrogen (NOx) used in this study are from a "snapshot" sampling campaign that is part of the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis and Air Pollution (MESA Air). The measurements in Los Angeles were collected during three two-week periods in the summer, autumn, and winter, each with about 150 sites. The design included clusters of monitors on either side of busy roads to capture near-field gradients of traffic-related pollution. LUR and UK prediction models were created using geographic information system (GIS)-based covariates. Selection of covariates was based on 10-fold cross-validated (CV) R(2) and root mean square error (RMSE). Since UK requires specialized software, a computationally simpler two-step procedure was also employed to approximate fitting the UK model using readily available regression and GIS software. RESULTS: UK models consistently performed as well as or better than the analogous LUR models. The best CV R(2) values for season-specific UK models predicting log(NOx) were 0.75, 0.72, and 0.74 (CV RMSE 0.20, 0.17, and 0.15) for summer, autumn, and winter, respectively. The best CV R(2) values for season-specific LUR models predicting log(NOx) were 0.74, 0.60, and 0.67 (CV RMSE 0.20, 0.20, and 0.17). The two-stage approximation to UK also performed better than LUR and nearly as well as the full UK model with CV R(2) values 0.75, 0.70, and 0.70 (CV RMSE 0.20, 0.17, and 0.17) for summer, autumn, and winter, respectively. CONCLUSION: High quality LUR and UK prediction models for NOx in Los Angeles were developed for the three seasons based on data collected for MESA Air. In our study, UK consistently outperformed LUR. Similarly, the 2-step approach was more effective than the LUR models, with performance equal to or slightly worse than UK.     

Nitrogen deposition effects on Mediterranean-type ecosystems: an ecological assessment

We review the ecological consequences of N deposition on the five Mediterranean regions of the world. Seasonality of precipitation and fires regulate the N cycle in these water-limited ecosystems, where dry N deposition dominates. Nitrogen accumulation in soils and on plant surfaces results in peaks of availability with the first winter rains. Decoupling between N flushes and plant demand promotes losses via leaching and gas emissions. Differences in P availability may control the response to N inputs and susceptibility to exotic plant invasion. Invasive grasses accumulate as fuel during the dry season, altering fire regimes. California and the Mediterranean Basin are the most threatened by N deposition; however, there is limited evidence for N deposition impacts outside of California. Consequently, more research is needed to determine critical loads for each region and vegetation type based on the most sensitive elements, such as changes in lichen species composition and N cycling.     

Interpolation of solid/liquid partition coefficients,K(d), for iodine in soils

The measurement of K(d) is difficult for most radionuclides: a different value is expected for every different soil. This study explored a modification of the constituent-K(d) approach used to estimate K(d) in geological materials. Here we selected five soils of very different compositions, four were field soils and one was an artificial potting soil. The soils were blended together in ratios of 1:1, 1:3 and 1:1:2 for all possible (60) 2- and 3-soil combinations. The K(d) was measured for each soil and each of the combined soils using additions of stable iodine. Our hypothesis was that the weighted average of the K(d)s of the original, unblended soils, weighted by the blending ratios, would be a reasonable estimate of the measured K(d)s of the blended soils. The ratios of expected/measured K(d) values did not deviate significantly from unity (a geometric mean of 0.91) for the four field soils. This result suggests that K(d) in the combined field soils could be estimated by the weighted average K(d) for the constituent soils. The resulting variation is consistent with other estimation methods. The practical implication of this finding is that, with K(d) data for a few benchmark soils in a region, one could estimate K(d) for other soils. The potting soil did not conform, and there are several possible explanations for this.     

Effect of pH on the sorption of uranium in soils

This work was undertaken to study the influence of soil type and chemical composition on uranium sorption ratios (SR in 1 kg-1) in order to reduce the uncertainty associated with this parameter in risk assessment models. Thirteen soil samples were collected from three different locations in France under different geological conditions. Clay content varied from 7.0 to 50.0%, pH ranged from 5.5 to 8.8 and organic matter content from 1.0 to 4.6%. Soils were incubated at room temperature in polyethylene packets for 28 days in the presence of 1 mg U kg-1 soil. Sorption ratio values varied from 0.9 to 3198 for all soils with no significant effect of soil texture or of organic matter. However, soil pH was highly linearly correlated with (log SR) as a probable consequence of the existence of different uranium complexes as a function of soil pH. The sorption behaviour differences between UO2(2+) and UO2(2+)-carbonate complexes are so great that any other effect of soil properties on U sorption is hidden. Thus, soil pH should be the focus variable for reduction of the uncertainty associated with the soil Kd value used in environmental risk assessments, even for reducing the uncertainty in site-specific Kd values.     

Non-invasive fetal genotyping for maternal alleles with droplet digital PCR: A comparative study of analytical approaches

Objectives

To develop a flexible droplet digital PCR (ddPCR) workflow to perform non-invasive prenatal diagnosis via relative mutation dosage (RMD) for maternal pathogenic variants with a range of inheritance patterns, and to compare the accuracy of multiple analytical approaches.

Methods

Cell free DNA (cfDNA) was tested from 124 archived maternal plasma samples: 88 cases for sickle cell disease and 36 for rare Mendelian conditions. Three analytical methods were compared: sequential probability ratio testing (SPRT), Bayesian and z-score analyses.

Results

The SPRT, Bayesian and z-score analyses performed similarly well with correct prediction rates of 96%, 97% and 98%, respectively. However, there were high rates of inconclusive results for each cohort, particularly for z-score analysis which was 31% overall. Two samples were incorrectly classified by all three analytical methods; a false negative result predicted for a fetus affected with sickle cell disease and a false positive result predicting the presence of an X-linked IDS variant in an unaffected fetus.

Conclusions

ddPCR can be applied to RMD for diverse conditions and inheritance patterns, but all methods carry a small risk of erroneous results. Further evaluation is required both to reduce the rate of inconclusive results and explore discordant results in more detail.     

Applying metabolic fingerprinting to ecology: The use of Fourier-transform infrared spectroscopy for the rapid screening of plant responses to N deposition

The potential for metabolic fingerprinting via Fourier-transform infrared (FT-IR) spectroscopy to provide a novel approach for the detection of plant biochemical responses to N deposition is examined. An example of spectral analysis using shoot samples taken from an open top chamber (OTC) experiment simulating wet ammonium deposition is given. Sample preparation involved oven drying and homogenisation via mill grinding. Slurries of a consistent dilution were then prepared prior to FT-IR analysis. Spectra from control, 8 and 16 kg N ha^?1 yr^?1 treatments were then subjected to cross-validated discriminant function analysis. Ordination diagrams showed clear separation between the three N treatments examined. The potential for using Calluna vulgaris (L.) Hull as a bioindicator of N deposition is further evident from these results. The results also clearly demonstrate the power of FT-IR in discriminating between subtle phenotypic alterations in overall plant biochemistry as affected by ammonium pollution.     

Water Resource Management in Botswana: Balancing Sustainability and Economic Development*

Botswana is a rapidly developing country in southern Africa. Over the last three decades, diamond mining and tourism have provided double-digit rates of economic growth. Yet most of Botswana’s land is in the Kalahari desert where the climate is subject to sustained periods of severe drought. In this environment, water resources are the most crucial of all environmental resources. Water use directly affects economic development because water utilization impacts all the major national economic sectors. A sustainable water use resource management plan must stretch several decades into the future to assure the availability of adequate supplies of water to future generations while not compromising the ability of the current generation to reasonable rates of economic development. Yet thinking about sustainability is present in Botswana water policy mostly only in rhetoric. A series of cultural traditions and political constraints, coupled with bureaucratic managerial weaknesses, serve to maintain a system of water allocation that is unsustainable in the long run and inefficient in the short-term. Unless sustainable water use patterns are adopted, the results for the short-term, as well as the long-term, will be devastating. Drawing on data obtained through a series of interviews with government officials, leaders of non-governmental organizations (NGOs), and water resource researchers, this paper explores water policy in Botswana within the larger context of sustainable natural resource management practice and the pressures of economic development. This research was partially funded under U.S. Department of State, College and University Affiliations Grant # ASCS-1095.