Metal prices as a function of ore grade

The authors are both with the Systems Analysis Research Unit, Department of the Environment, London, England. The views expressed in this paper are those of the authors and do not necessarily coincide with those of the Department of the Environment.     

IIHS head restraint ratings and insurance injury claim rates

Objectives: The Insurance Institute for Highway Safety (IIHS) rates front seat/head restraint designs using a combination of static and dynamic measurements following RCAR-IIWPG procedures. The purpose of this study was to determine whether vehicles with better IIHS-rated seats/head restraints had lower injury risk in rear-end collisions and how the effect of better rated seats interacted with driver gender and age.

Methods: The presence of an associated insurance injury claim was determined for rear-impact crashes using 2001–2014 model year cars and SUVs. Logistic regression was used to compare injury risk for vehicles with good, acceptable, and marginal IIHS-rated seats/head restraints with poor-rated seats/head restraints. Analyses were run by gender and driver age and also by the rate of more severe injury claims.

Results: Injury rates were 11.2% lower for vehicles with seats/head restraints rated good compared to vehicles with seats/head restraints rated poor. The percentage reduction for good- versus poor-rated seats was greater for females (12.7%) than males (8.9%). Comparing good- with poor-rated seats, driver ages 15–24 had the largest reduction at 19.8%, followed by 10.7% for driver ages 45–64 and 10.4% for driver ages 25–44.

Conclusions: Seats/head restraints with better IIHS ratings are associated with lower injury rates in rear-impact collisions than seats rated poor. The reductions in injury rates were strongest for females and for young-to–middle-age drivers. The strong reductions in injury rates for these groups are encouraging given their high initial injury rates.     

Processes Influencing Dissolved Organic Nitrogen, Phosphorus and Sulphur in Soils

The influence of different plant and soil processes on the concentrations of soluble organic forms of carbon, nitrogen, phosphorus and sulphur in soil and drainage waters is reviewed. Current knowledge about soluble organic matter is restricted mainly to dissolved organic carbon. Comparable information about soluble organic nitrogen, phosphorus and sulphur in processes such as eutrophication, plant uptake and decomposition is limited. Data are presented to highlight the potential sources of soluble organic components together with a discussion of their likely fate within the soil profile. the implications of changes in land use and management practices on dissolved organic matter are discussed.     

The roles of sensory traps in the origin, maintenance, and breakdown of mutualism

Sensory traps are signal mimics that elicit out-of-context behaviors by exploiting the adaptive, neural responses of signal receivers. Sensory traps have long been invoked in studies of mate and prey attraction, but the possible roles of sensory traps in mutualisms (cooperation between species) have yet to be thoroughly examined. Our review identifies four candidate roles for sensory traps in the evolution of mutualistic interactions: reassembly, error reduction, enforcement, and cost reduction. A key consequence of sensory traps is that they limit the applicability of partner choice and biological market models of mutualism. We conclude by suggesting that an important research topic in the evolution of cooperation should be to identify any mechanisms that increase the truthfulness of communication between cooperating species.     

Models to predict emissions of health-damaging pollutants and global warming contributions of residential fuel/stove combinations in China

Residential energy use in developing countries has traditionally been associated with combustion devices of poor energy efficiency, which have been shown to produce substantial health-damaging pollution, contributing significantly to the global burden of disease, and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Precision of these estimates in China has been hampered by limited data on stove use and fuel consumption in residences. In addition limited information is available on variability of emissions of pollutants from different stove/fuel combinations in typical use, as measurement of emission factors requires measurement of multiple chemical species in complex burn cycle tests. Such measurements are too costly and time consuming for application in conjunction with national surveys. Emissions of most of the major health-damaging pollutants (HDP) and many of the gases that contribute to GHG emissions from cooking stoves are the result of the significant portion of fuel carbon that is diverted to products of incomplete combustion (PIC) as a result of poor combustion efficiencies. The approximately linear increase in emissions of PIC with decreasing combustion efficiencies allows development of linear models to predict emissions of GHG and HDP intrinsically linked to CO2 and PIC production, and ultimately allows the prediction of global warming contributions from residential stove emissions. A comprehensive emissions database of three burn cycles of 23 typical fuel/stove combinations tested in a simulated village house in China has been used to develop models to predict emissions of HDP and global warming commitment (GWC) from cooking stoves in China, that rely on simple survey information on stove and fuel use that may be incorporated into national surveys. Stepwise regression models predicted 66% of the variance in global warming commitment (CO2, CO, CH4, NOx, TNMHC) per 1 MJ delivered energy due to emissions from these stoves if survey information on fuel type was available. Subsequently if stove type is known, stepwise regression models predicted 73% of the variance. Integrated assessment of policies to change stove or fuel type requires that implications for environmental impacts, energy efficiency, global warming and human exposures to HDP emissions can be evaluated. Frequently, this involves measurement of TSP or CO as the major HDPs. Incorporation of this information into models to predict GWC predicted 79% and 78% of the variance respectively. Clearly, however, the complexity of making multiple measurements in conjunction with a national survey would be both expensive and time consuming. Thus, models to predict HDP using simple survey information, and with measurement of either CO/CO2 or TSP/CO2 to predict emission factors for the other HDP have been derived. Stepwise regression models predicted 65% of the variance in emissions of total suspended particulate as grams of carbon (TSPC) per 1 MJ delivered if survey information on fuel and stove type was available and 74% if the CO/CO2 ratio was measured. Similarly stepwise regression models predicted 76% of the variance in COC emissions per MJ delivered with survey information on stove and fuel type and 85% if the TSPC/CO2 ratio was measured. Ultimately, with international agreements on emissions trading frameworks, similar models based on extensive databases of the fate of fuel carbon during combustion from representative household stoves would provide a mechanism for computing greenhouse credits in the residential sector as part of clean development mechanism frameworks and monitoring compliance to control regimes.     

Quantifying chlorinated ethene degradation during reductive dechlorination at Kelly AFB using stable carbon isotopes

Stable isotope analysis of chlorinated ethene contaminants was carried out during a bioaugmentation pilot test at Kelly Air Force Base (AFB) in San Antonio Texas. In this pilot test, cis-1,2-dichloroethene (cDCE) was the primary volatile organic compound. A mixed microbial enrichment culture, KB-1, shown in laboratory experiments to reduce chlorinated ethenes to non-toxic ethene, was added to the pilot test area. Following bioaugmentation with KB-1, perchloroethene (PCE), trichloroethene (TCE) and cDCE concentrations declined, while vinyl chloride (VC) concentrations increased and subsequently decreased as ethene became the dominant transformation product. Shifts in carbon isotopic values up to 2.7 per thousand, 6.4 per thousand, 10.9 per thousand and 10.6 per thousand were observed for PCE, TCE, cDCE and VC, respectively, after bioaugmentation, consistent with the effects of biodegradation. While a rising trend of VC concentrations and the first appearance of ethene were indicative of biodegradation by 72 days post-bioaugmentation, the most compelling evidence of biodegradation was the substantial carbon isotope enrichment (2.0 per thousand to 5.0 per thousand) in ?13C(cDCE). Fractionation factors obtained in previous laboratory studies were used with isotope field measurements to estimate first-order cDCE degradation rate constants of 0.12 h(-1) and 0.17 h(-1) at 115 days post-bioaugmentation. These isotope-derived rate constants were clearly lower than, but within a factor of 2-4 of the previously published rate constant calculated in a parallel study at Kelly AFB using chlorinated ethene concentrations. Stable carbon isotopes can provide not only a sensitive means for early identification of the effects of biodegradation, but an additional means to quantify the rates of biodegradation in the field.     

Coupling climate and economic models in a cost-benefit framework: A convex optimisation approach

In this paper, we present a general method, based on a convex optimisation technique, that facilitates the coupling of climate and economic models in a cost-benefit framework. As a demonstration of the method, we couple an economic growth model à la Ramsey adapted from DICE-99 with an efficient intermediate complexity climate model, C-GOLDSTEIN, which has highly simplified physics, but fully 3-D ocean dynamics. As in DICE-99, we assume that an economic cost is associated with global temperature change: this change is obtained from the climate model, which is driven by the GHG concentrations computed from the economic growth path. The work extends a previous paper in which these models were coupled in cost-effectiveness mode. Here we consider the more intricate cost-benefit coupling in which the climate impact is not fixed a priori. We implement the coupled model using an oracle-based optimisation technique. Each model is contained in an oracle, which supplies model output and information on its sensitivity to a master program. The algorithm Proximal-ACCPM guarantees the convergence of the procedure under sufficient convexity assumptions. Our results demonstrate the possibility of a consistent, cost-benefit, climate-damage optimisation analysis with a 3-D climate model.     

Mercury Contamination of the EEL (Anguilla Anguilla) and Roach (Rutilus Rutilus) in East Anglia, UK

The muscle tissue total mercury (THg) and organomercury (OrHg) concentrations of eel (Anguilla anguilla) and roach (Rutilus rutilis) from the Hg-contaminated River Yare and the uncontaminated Ormesby Broad were compared to their respective bed sediment THg and OrHg concentrations in order to determine if fish in the River Yare had begun to approach 'background' levels. While eel from the Yare had higher flesh concentrations (260 g kg-1) than those from Ormesby Broad (102 g kg- 1), roach were found to have similar concentrations regardless of location (55 and 54 g kg-1 for Yare and Ormesby respectively). However, roach in the Yare had significantly higher body burdens of Hg and organomercury, which when analysed over time (1985–95) showed a decreasing trend approaching the levels observed in fish from Ormesby Broad, suggesting that roach are an overall better biomonitor of contamination then eel. This said, the elevated levels of Hg found in fish from Ormesby Broad indicate the existence of a diffuse source such as atmospheric deposition to the surface waters of East Anglia.     

Controls on Leaching of N Species in Upland Moorland Catchments

Spatial and temporal changes in mobility of N species have been studied for three UK upland river networks, the Etherow in the South Pennines, the Nether Beck in the Lake District and the Dee in NE Scotland. The catchments are subject to N deposition at 35.1, 22.0 and 10.8–15.6 kg N ha^–1 yr^–1, respectively. TheNH ₄ ⁺ leaching appears to be predominantly regulated by flowpath in more polluted upland catchments. It is greatest where water draining acidified peaty soils contributes more to total discharge. Soluble organic matter may provide the dominant counter anion. In the Etherowand Dee catchments, which are dominated by acid mineral and organic soils, at high discharge NO ₃ ^– also appears to be associated with greater input of water from acidified soils. In contrast, for the Nether Beck, higher NO ₃ ^– concentrations are associated with tributaries draining soils contributingwater with higher alkalinity, suggesting nitrification is important. For the Etherow and Dee, dissolved organic N (DON) appears to originate predominantly from acidified, peaty soils. Spiking experiments with peat soil from the Etherow catchment confirmed the limited capacity of these soils to utilize inorganic N inputs, favouring equilibration with NH ₄ ⁺ inputs and leaching losses of inorganic N throughout the year.