唐山市大气环境治理措施的效果及分析

为揭示河北省唐山市大气环境治理的措施效果,分析了“十一五”期间唐山市的减排措施、污染物排放量和空气污染物浓度的变化. 结果表明:“十一五”期间(2005—2010年),烟尘、工业粉尘、SO₂排放量分别减少35%、57%、20%,ρ(PM₁₀)、ρ(SO₂)、ρ(NO₂)年均值分别下降12%、33%、33%. 与GB 3095—2012《环境空气质量标准》相比,2005年ρ(PM₁₀)、ρ(SO₂)、ρ(NO₂)分别超标36%、42%、7%,而到2010年ρ(SO₂)、ρ(NO₂)已达标,但ρ(PM₁₀)仍然超标20%. 2008年北京奥运会期间的减排措施使得唐山市ρ(PM₁₀)、ρ(SO₂)、ρ(NO₂)年均值均显著下降,分别比2007年下降13%、20%、28%. 2008—2009年的全球经济危机使得2009年地方生产总值增速较其他年均值降低13%,2009年烟尘和SO₂排放量也呈显著下降趋势,二者比2008年分别下降14%和10%,但工业粉尘排放量反而增加8%. 经济危机使ρ(PM₁₀)、ρ(SO₂)、ρ(NO₂)下降速率分别提升了20%、2%、2%. 研究结果表明,“十一五”总量减排、2008年北京奥运会期间的治理措施和全球经济危机对唐山市的空气质量产生了明显的影响.      

Effects of ocean acidification, temperature and nutrient regimes on the appendicularian Oikopleura dioica: a mesocosm study

Increasing pCO₂ is hypothesized to induce shifts in plankton communities toward smaller cells, reduced carbon export rates and increased roles of gelatinous zooplankton. Appendicularians, among the most numerous pan-global “gelatinous” zooplankton, continuously produce filter-feeding houses, shortcutting marine food webs by ingesting submicron particles, and their discarded houses contribute significantly to carbon fluxes. We present a first mesocosm-scale study on the effects of temperature, pCO₂ and bloom structures on the appendicularian, Oikopleura dioica. There were effects of temperature and nutrients on phytoplankton communities. No shifts in functional phytoplankton groups, nor changes in particle sizes/morphotypes, known to impact appendicularian feeding, were observed under manipulated pCO₂ conditions. However, appendicularian abundance was positively correlated with increased pCO₂, temperature and nutrient levels, consistent with hypotheses concerning gelatinous zooplankton in future oceans. This suggests appendicularians will play more important roles in marine pelagic communities and vertical carbon transport under projected ocean acidification and elevated temperature scenarios.     

A new procedure combining GC-MS with accelerated solvent extraction for the analysis of phthalic acid esters in contaminated soils

An optimized procedure based on gas chromatography-mass spectrometry (GC-MS) combined with accelerated solvent extraction (ASE) is developed for the analysis of six phthalic acid esters (PAEs), which are priority soil pollutants nominated by United States Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA). Quantification of PAEs in soil employs ultrasonic extraction (UE) (USEPA 3550) and ASE (USEPA 3545), followed by clean up procedures involving three different chromatography columns and two combined elution methods. GC-MS conditions under selected ion monitoring (SIM) mode are described and quality assurance and quality control (QA/QC) criteria with high accuracy and sensitivity for target analytes were achieved. Method reliability is assured with the use of an isotopically labeled PAE, di-n-butyl phthalate-d4 (DnBP-D4), as a surrogate, and benzyl benzoate (BB) as an internal standard, and with the analysis of certified reference materials (CRM). QA/QC for the developed procedure was tested in four PAE-spiked soils and one PAE-contaminated soil. The four spiked soils were originated from typical Chinese agricultural fields and the contaminated soil was obtained from an electronic waste dismantling area. Instrument detection limits (IDLs) for the six PAEs ranged 0.10–0.31 μg·L^-1 and method detection limits (MDLs) of the four spiked soils varied from a range of 20–70 μg·kg^-1 to a range of 90– 290 μg·kg^-1. Linearity of response between 20 μg·L^-1 and 2 mg·L^-1 was also established and the correlation coefficients (R) were all>0.998. Spiked soil matrix showed relative recovery rates between 75 and 120% for the six target compounds and about 93% for the surrogate substance. The developed procedure is anticipated to be highly applicable for field surveys of soil PAE pollution in China.     

A critique of the official report on the evacuation of the World Trade Center: continued doubts

This paper criticises the conclusions and the unanswered questions in the National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST)'s official report on the evacuation of the World Trade Center in New York City, United States, on 11 September 2001. It reviews the extent to which the report disregards several conventional statistical methods and comments on the NIST's refusal to share the machine‐readable data file with the scientific community for replication and further analysis. Problems lie in the sampling methods employed, the treatment of missing data, the use of ordinary least squares (OLS) with binary dependent variables, the failure to document the scalability of the scales used, the lack of tests to check for constant error variance, and the absence of overall fit tests of the model. There are also conceptual and theoretical issues, such as the absence in the report of considerations of the influence of group‐level processes and their impact on the collective behaviour of evacuating collectivities.     

Multiple predators indirectly alter community assembly across ecological boundaries

Models of habitat selection often assume that organisms choose habitats based on their intrinsic quality, regardless of the position of these habitats relative to low-quality habitats in the landscape. We created a habitat matrix in which high-quality (predator-free) aquatic habitat patches were positioned adjacent to (predator-associated) or isolated from (control) patches with single or two species of caged predators. After 16 days of colonization, larval insect abundance was reduced by 50% on average in both the predator and predator-associated treatments relative to isolated controls. Effects were largely similar among predator treatments despite variation in number of predator species, predator biomass, and whether predators were native or nonnative. Importantly, the strength of effects did not depend on whether predators were physically present. These results demonstrate that predator cues can cascade with equal strength across ecological boundaries, indirectly altering community assembly via habitat selection in intrinsically high-quality habitats.     

Biophysical feedback mediates effects of invasive grasses on coastal dune shape

Vegetation at the aquatic-terrestrial interface can alter landscape features through its growth and interactions with sediment and fluids. Even similar species may impart different effects due to variation in their interactions and feedbacks with the environment. Consequently, replacement of one engineering species by another can cause significant change in the physical environment. Here we investigate the species-specific ecological mechanisms influencing the geomorphology of U.S. Pacific Northwest coastal dunes. Over the last century, this system changed from open, shifting sand dunes with sparse vegetation (including native beach grass, Elymus mollis), to densely vegetated continuous foredune ridges resulting from the introduction and subsequent invasions of two nonnative grass species (Ammophila arenaria and Ammophila breviligulata), each of which is associated with different dune shapes and sediment supply rates along the coast. Here we propose a biophysical feedback responsible for differences in dune shape, and we investigate two, non-mutually exclusive ecological mechanisms for these differences: (1) species differ in their ability to capture sand and (2) species differ in their growth habit in response to sand deposition. To investigate sand capture, we used a moveable bed wind tunnel experiment and found that increasing tiller density increased sand capture efficiency and that, under different experimental densities, the native grass had higher sand capture efficiency compared to the Ammophila congeners. However, the greater densities of nonnative grasses under field conditions suggest that they have greater potential to capture more sand overall. We used a mesocosm experiment to look at plant growth responses to sand deposition and found that, in response to increasing sand supply rates, A. arenaria produced higher-density vertical tillers (characteristic of higher sand capture efficiency), while A. breviligulata and E. mollis responded with lower-density lateral tiller growth (characteristic of lower sand capture efficiency). Combined, these experiments provide evidence for a species-specific effect on coastal dune shape. Understanding how dominant ecosystem engineers, especially nonnative ones, differ in their interactions with abiotic factors is necessary to better parameterize coastal vulnerability models and inform management practices related to both coastal protection ecosystem services and ecosystem restoration.     

Neighborhood and habitat effects on vital rates: expansion of the Barred Owl in the Oregon coast ranges

In this paper, we modify dynamic occupancy models developed for detection-nondetection data to allow for the dependence of local vital rates on neighborhood occupancy, where neighborhood is defined very flexibly. Such dependence of occupancy dynamics on the status of a relevant neighborhood is pervasive, yet frequently ignored. Our framework permits joint inference about the importance of neighborhood effects and habitat covariates in determining colonization and extinction rates. Our specific motivation is the recent expansion of the Barred Owl (Strix varia) in western Oregon, USA, over the period 1990-2010. Because the focal period was one of dramatic range expansion and local population increase, the use of models that incorporate regional occupancy (sources of colonists) as determinants of dynamic rate parameters is especially appropriate. We began our analysis of 21 years of Barred Owl presence/nondetection data in the Tyee Density Study Area (TDSA) by testing a suite of six models that varied only in the covariates included in the modeling of detection probability. We then tested whether models that used regional occupancy as a covariate for colonization and extinction outperformed models with constant or year-specific colonization or extinction rates. Finally we tested whether habitat covariates improved the AIC of our models, focusing on which habitat covariates performed best, and whether the signs of habitat effects are consistent with a priori hypotheses. We conclude that all covariates used to model detection probability lead to improved AIC, that regional occupancy influences colonization and extinction rates, and that habitat plays an important role in determining extinction and colonization rates. As occupancy increases from low levels toward equilibrium, colonization increases and extinction decreases, presumably because there are more and more dispersing juveniles. While both rates are affected, colonization increases more than extinction decreases. Colonization is higher and extinction is lower in survey polygons with more riparian forest. The effects of riparian forest on extinction rates are greater than on colonization rates. Model results have implications for management of the invading Barred Owl, both through habitat alteration and removal.     

Population dynamics and control of invasive Spartina alterniflora: inference and forecasting under uncertainty

Managing invaded ecosystems entails making decisions about control strategies in the face of scientific uncertainty and ecological stochasticity. Statistical tools such as model selection and Bayesian decision analysis can guide decision-making by estimating probabilities of outcomes under alternative management scenarios, but these tools have seldom been applied in invasion ecology. We illustrate the use of model selection and Bayesian methods in a case study of smooth cordgrass (Spartina alterniflora) invading Willapa Bay, Washington. To address uncertainty in model structure, we quantified the weight of evidence for two previously proposed hypotheses, that S. alterniflora recruitment varies with climatic conditions (represented by sea surface temperature) and that recruitment is subject to an Allee effect due to pollen limitation. By fitting models to time series data, we found strong support for climate effects, with higher per capita seedling production in warmer years, but no evidence for an Allee effect based on either the total area invaded or the mean distance between neighboring clones. We used the best-supported model to compare alternative control strategies, incorporating uncertainty in parameter estimates and population dynamics. For a fixed annual removal effort, the probability of eradication in 10 years was highest, and final invaded area lowest, if removals targeted the smallest clones rather than the largest or randomly selected clones. The relationship between removal effort and probability of eradication was highly nonlinear, with a sharp threshold separating -0% and -100% probability of success, and this threshold was 95% lower in simulations beginning early rather than late in the invasion. This advantage of a rapid response strategy is due to density-dependent population growth, which produces alternative stable equilibria depending on the initial invasion size when control begins. Our approach could be applied to a wide range of invasive species management problems where appropriate data are available.     

Effects of controller-pilot communication medium,flight phase and the role in the cockpit on pilots’ workload and situation awareness

This study explores the effects of communication medium, flight phase, and the role in the cockpit on pilots’ workload and situation awareness. Eight pilots with the experience of Controller-Pilot Data Link Communications (CPDLCs) participated in this simulated experiment. Two types of communication medium (voice and datalink), three types of flight phase (departure, cruise, and arrival), and two types of role (pilot flying and pilot non-flying) were investigated in the experiment. The results indicated that flight phase is a significant factor and cruise is the most suitable phase for datalink use on pilots’ acceptance, workload, and situation awareness performance. Both medium and role were not the significant factors. Since there is no significant difference on medium when no extra tasks and interferences involved in a normal flight, that the use of CPDLC can be justified during all phases of a no-event flight. In addition, the results of usability indicated that the simulated CPDLC with command selection functions proposed in this study provides good utility for the participants. In order to use the CPDLC for all phases of flight in the future, adding more command selection functions in place of typing messages by pilots and accommodating appropriate interfaces for different phases are recommended to enhance the usability of the CPDLC unit.