Integrated pedestrian countermeasures - Potential of head injury reduction combining passive and active countermeasures

A rapid development of both pedestrian passive and active safety, such as pedestrian bonnets/airbags and autonomous braking, is in progress. The aim of this study was to investigate the potential pedestrian head injury reduction from hypothetical passive and active countermeasures compared to an integrated system. The German In-Depth Accident Study (GIDAS) database was queried from 1999 to 2008 for severely (AIS3+) head injured pedestrians when struck by car or van fronts. This, resulted in 54 cases where information was sufficient. The passive countermeasure was designed to mitigate head injuries caused by the bonnet area, A-pillars, and the remaining windscreen area up to 2.1 m wrap around distance (WAD). The active countermeasure was an autonomous braking system, which was activated one second prior to impact if the pedestrian was visible to a forward-looking sensor. The integrated system was a direct combination of the passive and active countermeasures. Case by case the effect from each of the active, passive and integrated systems was estimated. For the integrated system, the influence of the active system on the passive system performance was explicitly modeled in each case. The integrated system resulted in 50% (95% confidence interval: 30-70%) greater effectiveness than the active countermeasure in reducing the number of pedestrians sustaining severe (AIS3+) head injuries, and 90% (95% CI: 50-150%) greater effectiveness than the passive countermeasure. Integrated systems of passive and active pedestrian countermeasures offer a considerably increased potential for head injury reduction compared to either of the two systems alone.     

Ethics and fundamental principles of risk acceptance criteria

Ethics are concerned with distinguishing between what actions are “right” and “wrong” and what values are “good” and “bad”, etc. and there is a long academic tradition in discussing ethics and ethical theories. Risk acceptance criteria, on the other hand, distinguish between levels of risks that are acceptable and levels that are intolerable. In some sense, one may say that risk acceptance criteria distinguishes between “good” and “bad” systems and activities with regards to the risk they expose the society or elements of a society to and there is thus an obvious link between ethics and risk acceptance criteria or to risk management at large. However, there are few references in the literature that explores this link, and in this paper, the ethical foundation of fundamental principles of risk acceptance criteria will be elaborated upon.This paper considers some important principles for establishing risk acceptance criteria for safety critical systems and activities. The various principles and the philosophies behind them might at first sight seem contradictory and exclusive, but it is demonstrated how they may coexist in one and the same regulatory regime; They may complement each other in order to achieve the overall safety objectives of society. Then, some brief considerations of the ethical foundations for the principles will be given and some relevant examples of actual risk acceptance criteria will be given from the maritime industries. However, it is believed that the principles and discussions are of general interest and apply to all areas of technical risk and to safety regulations in a broader perspective.     

Evacuation, escape, and rescue experiences from offshore accidents including the Deepwater Horizon

When a major hazard occurs on an installation, evacuation, escape, and rescue (EER) operations play a vital role in safeguarding the lives of personnel. There have been several major offshore accidents where most of the crew has been killed during EER operations. The major hazards and EER operations can be divided into three categories; depending on the hazard, time pressure and the risk influencing factors (RIFs). The RIFs are categorized into human elements, the installation and hazards. A step by step evacuation sequence is illustrated. The escape and evacuation sequence from the Deepwater Horizon offshore drilling platform is reviewed based on testimonies from the survivors. Although no casualties were reported as a result of the EER operations from the Deepwater Horizon, the number of survivors offers a limited insight into the level of success of the EER operations. Several technical and non-technical improvements are suggested to improve EER operations. There is need for a comprehensive analysis of the systems used for the rescue of personnel at sea, life rafts and lifeboats in the Gulf of Mexico.     

The effect of grazing on biodiversity in coastal dune heathlands

The effect of sheep grazing on species richness, higher order diversity measures, inequality, species composition, functional diversity and allometric relationships at a coastal dune heathland site was investigated. After a prescribed fire in 2002, the site was divided into two parts, where one of the parts was unmanaged and the other part was fenced and grazed by sheep. Sheep grazing had a positive effect on species richness as well as a significant positive effect on the functional diversity at the coastal dune heathland site. Generally, the cover of dwarf shrubs was negatively affected by grazing, whereas the cover of sedges and grasses was positively affected by grazing. There is a need for comparative investigations of the effect of different management methods not only on floristic biodiversity, but on all relevant kinds of biodiversity as well as on soil structure, soil chemistry and habitat micro- and macrostructure. Consequently, we advocate the initiation of an international systematic investigation of the effect of different management methods.     

Female great tits do not alter their yolk androgen deposition when infested with a low-transmittable ectoparasite

In birds as in many other taxa, parasites can have deleterious effects on offspring development. Therefore, avian mothers have evolved responses to counteract parasite virulence in offspring via transgenerational defense mechanisms that is the transfer of immune-enhancing substances such as antibodies to their eggs. Another maternal pathway is suggested by the finding that infested great tit mothers produced eggs with lower androgens, since these yolk androgens are immunosuppressive and potentially affect parasite susceptibility of the nestlings. However, whether this pathway is a specific adaptation to infestation with parasites that affect the offspring or an epiphenomenon of lower androgen production in the female due to the parasite effects on the mother itself is as yet unclear. In this study we infested female great tits (Parus major) with sheep ticks (Ixodes ricinus), which are nonnidicolous ectoparasites with low vertical transmission capability, and evaluated the effects on yolk androgen deposition. Tick-infested females did not significantly reduce their deposition of androgens (androstenedione (A₄) and testosterone) compared to tick-reduced females, which is in contrast to a previous study showing a lowered deposition of A₄ and testosterone when females were exposed to the nidicolous hen flea. Thus, females alter their hormone deposition, and thus likely offspring phenotype, when exposed to parasites that also form the parasitic environment of their offspring, but not when temporarily infested with the field-dwelling sheep ticks with low transmission capability. This suggests that selection favored the evolution of an adaptive transgenerational effect by acting mainly on the parasite-induced maternal effect.     

A system-dynamic model on the competitive growth between Potamogeton malaianus Miq. and Spirogyra sp.

A system-dynamic model has been built to evaluate the competition between submerged macrophytes Potamogeton malaianus Miq. (PM) and filamentous green algae Spirogyra sp. (SP). The data background is based on a spring–summer and an autumn–winter experiment carried out in artificial field ponds. The experiments had the aim to acquire a knowledge base necessary to a successful restoration of submerged macrophyte vegetation in Lake Taihu, China by use of P. malaianus Miq. The model mainly focuses on variations in water volume; biomass dynamics of P. malaianus Miq., Spirogyra sp. and zoobenthos; nutrients cycling between water column, P. malaianus Miq., Spirogyra sp., zoobenthos, detritus and sediment. Sixteen state variables are included in the model: biomass of P. malaianus Miq., Spirogyra sp. and zoobenthos; nitrogen in sediments, detritus, in P. malaianus Miq., in Spirogyra sp. and zoobenthos; total dissolved nitrogen; phosphorus in sediments, detritus, in P. malaianus Miq., in Spirogyra sp. and in zoobenthos; total dissolved phosphorus, and water volume of the experiment pond. The calibration and validation of the model show a good accordance with the results of the spring–summer experiment and the autumn–winter experiment.     

Are wolves saving Yellowstone's aspen? A landscape-level test of a behaviorally mediated trophic cascade

Behaviorally mediated trophic cascades (BMTCs) occur when the fear of predation among herbivores enhances plant productivity. Based primarily on systems involving small-bodied predators, BMTCs have been proposed as both strong and ubiquitous in natural ecosystems. Recently, however, synthetic work has suggested that the existence of BMTCs may be mediated by predator hunting mode, whereby passive (sit-and-wait) predators have much stronger effects than active (coursing) predators. One BMTC that has been proposed for a wide-ranging active predator system involves the reintroduction of wolves (Canis lupus) to Yellowstone National Park, USA, which is thought to be leading to a recovery of trembling aspen (Populus tremuloides) by causing elk (Cervus elaphus) to avoid foraging in risky areas. Although this BMTC has been generally accepted and highly popularized, it has never been adequately tested. We assessed whether wolves influence aspen by obtaining detailed demographic data on aspen Stands using tree rings and by monitoring browsing levels in experimental elk exclosures arrayed across a gradient of predation risk for three years. Our study demonstrates that the historical failure of aspen to regenerate varied widely among stands (last recruitment year ranged from 1892 to 1956), and our data do not indicate an abrupt cessation of recruitment. This pattern of recruitment failure appears more consistent with a gradual increase in elk numbers rather than a rapid behavioral shift in elk foraging following wolf extirpation. In addition, our estimates of relative survivorship of young browsable aspen indicate that aspen are not currently recovering in Yellowstone, even in the presence of a large wolf population. Finally, in an experimental test of the BMTC hypothesis we found that the impacts of elk browsing on aspen demography are not diminished in sites where elk are at higher risk of predation by wolves. These findings suggest the need to further evaluate how trophic cascades are mediated by predator-prey life history and ecological context.     

Modeling ecosystem responses to prescribed fires in a phosphorus-enriched Everglades wetland: I. Phosphorus dynamics and cattail recovery

We have developed and applied a process-based model, the Wetland Ecosystem Model (WEM), to evaluate the effects of a prescribed fire on the phosphorus (P) dynamics and cattail (Typha domingensis) growth in a P-enriched area in the Florida Everglades. The WEM couples major ecosystem processes including carbon (C), nitrogen (N) and P biogeochemical cycles, plant growth, hydrology, and fire disturbance. The model is used to assess the effects of a prescribed fire on P dynamics and cattail growth through dynamic interaction among four modules: fire, water chemistry, soil, and vegetation. The simulation results are in agreement with observed data including cattail above- and belowground biomass and dead mass, P concentration in surface-water, pore-water, and soil, and soil and water temperature. Cattail aboveground biomass reached the unburned level one year after burn; belowground biomass recovered to unburned level one and half years after the fire, however, dead mass did not completely reach unburned level two years after fires. The fire increased water and soil temperatures in the short term, while indirectly increasing the sensitivity of water and soil temperature post-fire response to air temperature by altering the energy exchange between air and water through a canopy gap created by fire. The fire also altered the P dynamics in surface-water and pore-water. A post-fire P pulse that lasted for less than one month was observed in surface-water. A similar P pulse, but in a small magnitude and a longer duration, was also observed in the pore-water total phosphorus (TP), and then came back to normal level after approximately three months. No significant changes in soil TP was observed during the study period. Meanwhile, no significant changes in water nutrients were observed downstream of the study plot. This finding indicated that the P-enriched wetlands in Everglades act as a buffer in regulating the P concentration in surface-water. Our study showed that the distance of fire effects on a 300 m × 300 m plot was less than 300 m downstream. Sensitivity analysis identified that the air temperature and hydrological conditions are two important driving factors which may alter the cattail community dynamics in response to prescribed fires. Similar to the filed studies, this study provided evidences that fire played an important role in managing plant growth and P dynamics in the Florida Everglades.     

Reproductive strategy and singing activity: blue tit and great tit compared

The costs and benefits of bird song are likely to vary among species, and different singing patterns may reflect differences in reproductive strategies. We compared temporal patterns of singing activity in two songbird species, the blue tit (Cyanistes caeruleus) and the great tit (Parus major). The two species live side by side year round, and they have similar breeding ecology and similar rates of extra-pair paternity. However, they differ in two aspects of reproductive strategy that may have an influence on song output: blue tits are facultatively polygynous and have a fairly short breeding season with almost no second broods, whereas great tits are socially monogamous but more commonly raise second broods. We found that great tit males continued singing at high levels during the egg-laying and incubation periods, while monogamously paired blue tit males strongly reduced singing activity after the first days of egg-laying by their female. Since males of both species sang much more intensely shortly before sunrise than after sunrise, at midday or in the evening, this difference was most conspicuous at dawn. No differences in singing activity were found within species when testing for male age. We suggest that in contrast to blue tits, great tit males continued singing after egg-laying to defend the territory and to encourage the female for a possible second brood.     

Dispersal, density dependence, and population dynamics of a fungal microbe on leaf surfaces

Despite the ubiquity and importance of microbes in nature, little is known about their natural population dynamics, especially for those that occupy terrestrial habitats. Here we investigate the dynamics of the yeast-like fungus Aureobasidium pullulans (Ap) on apple leaves in an orchard. We asked three questions. (1) Is variation in fungal population density among leaves caused by variation in leaf carrying capacities and strong density-dependent population growth that maintains densities near carrying capacity? (2) Do resident populations have competitive advantages over immigrant cells? (3) Do Ap dynamics differ at different times during the growing season? To address these questions, we performed two experiments at different times in the growing season. Both experiments used a 2 x 2 factorial design: treatment 1 removed fungal cells from leaves to reveal density-dependent population growth, and treatment 2 inoculated leaves with an Ap strain engineered to express green fluorescent protein (GFP), which made it possible to track the fate of immigrant cells. The experiments showed that natural populations of Ap vary greatly in density due to sustained differences in carrying capacities among leaves. The maintenance of populations close to carrying capacities indicates strong density-dependent processes. Furthermore, resident populations are strongly competitive against immigrants, while immigrants have little impact on residents. Finally, statistical models showed high population growth rates of resident cells in one experiment but not in the other, suggesting that Ap experiences relatively "good" and "bad" periods for population growth. This picture of Ap dynamics conforms to commonly held, but rarely demonstrated, expectations of microbe dynamics in nature. It also highlights the importance of local processes, as opposed to immigration, in determining the abundance and dynamics of microbes on surfaces in terrestrial systems.