Ecological boundary detection using Bayesian areal wombling

The study of ecological boundaries and their dynamics is of fundamental importance to much of ecology, biogeography, and evolution. Over the past two decades, boundary analysis (of which wombling is a subfield) has received considerable research attention, resulting in multiple approaches for the quantification of ecological boundaries. Nonetheless, few methods have been developed that can simultaneously (1) analyze spatially homogenized data sets (i.e., areal data in the form of polygons rather than point-reference data); (2) account for spatial structure in these data and uncertainty associated with them; and (3) objectively assign probabilities to boundaries once detected. Here we describe the application of a Bayesian hierarchical framework for boundary detection developed in public health, which addresses these issues but which has seen limited application in ecology. As examples, we analyze simulated spread data and the historic pattern of spread of an invasive species, the hemlock woolly adelgid (Adelges tsugae), using county-level summaries of the year of first reported infestation and several covariates potentially important to influencing the observed spread dynamics. Bayesian areal wombling is a promising approach for analyzing ecological boundaries and dynamics related to changes in the distributions of native and invasive species.     

Mapping fires and American Red Cross aid using demographic indicators of vulnerability

Social vulnerability indicators can assist with informing disaster relief preparation. Certain demographic segments of a population may suffer disproportionately during disaster events, and a geographical understanding of them can help to determine where to place strategically logistical assets and to target disaster‐awareness outreach endeavours. Records of house fire events and American Red Cross aid provision over a five‐year period were mapped for the County of Los Angeles, California, United States, to examine the congruence between actual events and expectations of risk based on vulnerability theory. The geographical context provided by the data was compared with spatially‐explicit indicators of vulnerability, such as age, race, and wealth. Fire events were found to occur more frequently in more vulnerable areas, and Red Cross aid was found to have an even stronger relationship to those places. The findings suggest that these indicators speak beyond vulnerability and relate to patterns of fire risk.     

Environmental risk and liability management and its influence on profitability

Managing environmental risk and liability for corporations and consultants requires a prudent combination of insurance techniques, company risk control plans, pollution prevention, and the proper allocation of retention funds. This article presents a review of current risk management techniques used to shield profits from limited and catastrophic loss scenarios. We recommend that corporations and consulting firms integrate insurance and risk management planning to mitigate environmental liabilities, navigate business risks, and safeguard corporate performance..© 1999 John Wiley & Sons, Inc.     

Modeled response of ozone to electricity generation emissions in the northeastern United States using three sensitivity techniques

Electrical generation units (EGUs) are important sources of nitrogen oxides (NO_x) that contribute to ozone air pollution. A dynamic management system can anticipate high ozone and dispatch EGU generation on a daily basis to attempt to avoid violations, temporarily scaling back or shutting down EGUs that most influence the high ozone while compensating for that generation elsewhere. Here we investigate the contributions of NO_x from individual EGUs to high daily ozone, with the goal of informing the design of a dynamic management system. In particular, we illustrate the use of three sensitivity techniques in air quality models—brute force, decoupled direct method (DDM), and higher-order DDM—to quantify the sensitivity of high ozone to NO_x emissions from 80 individual EGUs. We model two episodes with high ozone in the region around Pittsburgh, PA, on August 4 and 13, 2005, showing that the contribution of 80 EGUs to 8-hr daily maximum ozone ranges from 1 to >5 ppb at particular locations. At these locations and on the two high ozone days, shutting down power plants roughly 1.5 days before the 8-hr ozone violation causes greater ozone reductions than 1 full day before; however, the benefits of shutting down roughly 2 days before the high ozone are modest compared with 1.5 days. Using DDM, we find that six EGUs are responsible for >65% of the total EGU ozone contribution at locations of interest; in some locations, a single EGU is responsible for most of the contribution. Considering ozone sensitivities for all 80 EGUs, DDM performs well compared with a brute-force simulation with a small normalized mean bias (–0.20), while this bias is reduced when using the higher-order DDM (–0.10).

Implications: Dynamic management of electrical generation has the potential to meet daily ozone air quality standards at low cost. We show that dynamic management can be effective at reducing ozone, as EGU contributions are important and as the number of EGUs that contribute to high ozone in a given location is small (<6). For two high ozone days and seven geographic regions, EGUs would best be shut down or their production scaled back roughly 1.5 days before the forecasted exceedance. Including online sensitivity techniques in an air quality forecasting model can provide timely and useful information on which EGUs would be most beneficial to shut down or scale back temporarily.     

Autotoxic effects of essential oils on photosynthesis in parsley, parsnip, and rough lemon

Summary. Many plant species contain essential oils with allelochemical properties, yet the extent to which these same chemicals can be autotoxic is unclear. In this study, we tested the toxicity of several essential oil components to three species that produce them—Pastinaca sativa and Petroselinum crispum (Apiaceae), and Citrus jambhiri (Rutaceae). The effects of exogenous application of small amounts of essential oil components to the surface of foliage, followed by a pinprick to allow entry into the leaf, were monitored by chlorophyll fluorescence imaging. Rapid and spatially extensive declines in photosynthetic capacity were detected within 200 s. The most toxic constituents were monoterpenes. Two sesquiterpenes, caryophyllene and farnesene, and the phenylpropanoid myristicin, by comparison, were not toxic. Autotoxicity of endogenous essential oil was investigated by slicing through containment structures (glands or tubes); significant toxicity, manifested by reduced photosynthetic activity, was observed in all three species but was most pronounced in P. sativa and P. crispum, both of which possess oil tubes.     

Phased sampling for soil remediation

In phased sampling, data obtained in one phase is used to design the sampling network for the next phase. GivenN total observations, 1, ...,N phases are possible. Experiments were conducted with one-phase, two-phase, andN-phase design algorithms on surrogate models of sites with contaminated soils. The sampling objective was to identify through interpolation, subunits of the site that required remediation. The cost-effectiveness of alternate methods was compared by using a loss function. More phases are better, but in economic terms, the improvement is marginal. The optimal total number of samples is essentially independent of the number of phases. For two phase designs, 75% of samples in the first phase is near optimal; 20% or less is actually counterproductive.The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) through its Office of Research and Development (ORD), partially funded and collaborated in the research described here. It has been subjected to the Agency's peer review and has been approved as an EPA publication. The U.S. Government has a non-exclusive, royalty-free licence in and to any copyright covering this article.     

Controlling stock externalities in a common property fishery subject to uncertainty

Two methods are examined for regulating stock externalities under uncertainty: quotas and taxes. Dynamic programming is used to characterize the externalities precisely. The accuracy with which the current size of the resource stock can be monitored is found to be of crucial importance in the choice between tax and quota regulation. If the current stock is observed without error, taxes are capable of outperforming any quota.     

Of Small Streams and Great Lakes: Integrating Tributaries to Understand the Ecology and Biogeochemistry of Lake Superior

Lake Superior receives inputs from approximately 2,800 tributaries that provide nutrients and dissolved organic matter (DOM) to the nearshore zone of this oligotrophic lake. Here, we review the magnitude and timing of tributary export and plume formation in Lake Superior, how these patterns and interactions may shift with global change, and how emerging technologies can be used to better characterize tributary–lake linkages. Peak tributary export occurs during snowmelt‐driven spring freshets, with additional pulses during rain‐driven storms. Instream processing and transformation of nitrogen, phosphorus, and dissolved organic carbon (DOC) can be rapid but varies seasonally in magnitude. Tributary plumes with elevated DOC concentration, higher turbidity, and distinct DOM character can be detected in the nearshore during times of high runoff, but plumes can be quickly transported and diluted by in‐lake currents and mixing. Understanding the variability in size and load of these tributary plumes, how they are transported within the lake, and how long they persist may be best addressed with environmental sensors and remote sensing using autonomous and unmanned vehicles. The connections between Lake Superior and its tributaries are vulnerable to climate change, and understanding and predicting future changes to these valuable freshwater resources will require a nuanced and detailed consideration of tributary inputs and interactions in time and space.     

Gill function and particle transport in Placopecten magellanicus (Mollusca: Bivalvia) as revealed using video endoscopy

The technique of endoscopic video observation was used to study feeding processes of Placopecten magellanicus (Gmelin), collected from Bull Arm, Newfoundland in August 1991 and 1992, under near-natural feeding conditions. The fate of captured particles depended on the extent of ingestive or handling capacity saturation. Under low (1 to 10 particles l^-1) to medium (10 to 20 particles l^-1) particle concentrations, most particles were incorporated in continuous anteriorly directed slurries in the dorsal ciliated tracts of the gill arch and dorsal bends. As particle concentration or exposure time to the lower particle concentrations increased, four endogenous mechanisms of ingestion volume control were increasingly observed: (1) rejection of dense mucus-particle masses from the principal filament troughs onto the ventrally beating cilia and associated currents of the ordinary filament plicae, counter to and below the incoming pallial current maintained by the principal filament cilia; (2) intermittent stopping of the anteriorward flow in the dorsal ciliated tracts; (3) reduction or cessation of input from the principal filaments to the dorsal ciliated tracts; (4) detachment of the dorsal bends from the mantle to establish a shunt from the infrabranchial to the suprabranchial cavity. Chemical and histochemical tests of purified fluid withdrawn from the dorsal ciliated tracts indicate that mucus is present at all particle concentrations. Mucus therefore participates both in normal feeding and in ingestion volume control on the bivalve gill, although different mechanisms, and types of mucus, effect transport of material in the dorsal (feeding) and ventral (cleaning) ciliated tracts.     

The thief process for mercury removal from flue gas

The Thief Process is a cost-effective variation to activated carbon injection (ACI) for removal of mercury from flue gas. In this scheme, partially combusted coal from the furnace of a pulverized coal power generation plant is extracted by a lance and then re-injected into the ductwork downstream of the air preheater. Recent results on a 500-lb/h pilot-scale combustion facility show similar removals of mercury for both the Thief Process and ACI. The tests conducted to date at laboratory, bench, and pilot-scales demonstrate that the Thief sorbents exhibit capacities for mercury from flue gas streams that are comparable to those exhibited by commercially available activated carbons. A patent for the process was issued in February 2003. The Thief sorbents are cheaper than commercially-available activated carbons; exhibit excellent capacities for mercury; and the overall process holds great potential for reducing the cost of mercury removal from flue gas. The Thief Process was licensed to Mobotec USA, Inc. in May of 2005.