The risk assessment-policy gap: an example from the UK contaminated land regime

Risk-based regulation assumes that risk assessment can evaluate risks against policy objectives. However, policy goals are often ambiguous and require risk assessors to interpret them for use in risk assessment. This risk assessment-policy gap stems partly from normative and imprecise policy language but is rooted more fundamentally in society's uncertain expectations for the environment. Until this uncertainty is resolved, the democratic and regulatory effectiveness of risk regulation will be undermined by ad hoc policy decisions abdicated to risk assessors.     

Chemical and physical partitioning in contaminated stream sediments in the River Ystwyth,Mid-Wales

This study investigates contemporary fluvial contamination of stream sediments by Pb, Zn and Cu from a mine near Aberystwyth, Wales. Of particular interest is the association between metal cations and particulate substrates and which is investigated using a selective extraction procedure. Emphasis is also placed on the difference between adsorptive phases depending on particle size. As particle size decreases the labile phase becomes dominant, with the easily and moderately reducible fraction being the major scavenging agent of soluble cations. Zinc and copper are largely held as residual rock or ore particles and are therefore expected to have a longer residence time in sediments. Recent floodplain development is difficult to interpret due to reworking of upstream metal-rich alluvium. However evidence is presented to suggest that once silt and clay size particles enter the main channel they are largely removed from the system.     

Do new health conditions support mortality–air pollution effects?

Epidemiological research underlying US air quality regulations documents significant associations between measures of fine particles and premature mortality. Recent studies examine potential mechanistic pathways, related to heart and lung functioning, that may contribute to the observed deaths. Our results support these pathophysiological analyses. We examine whether the onset of serious health conditions, consistent with disease pathways, is related to current and long-term exposure to particulate matter and ozone. Associations between air pollution and alternative indicators of health status are also evaluated. The 1996 wave of the Health and Retirement Study is used with a two-step estimator acknowledging limitations in our ability to measure individual exposures. The findings suggest significant current and long-term effects of particulates on new cases of heart attacks and angina, reinforcing the disease pathways identified in epidemiological studies. Long-term air pollution exposure is also a determinant of recently diagnosed chronic lung conditions and reports of shortness of breath.     

Brood reduction in the American white pelican (Pelecanus erythrohynchos)

Summary American white pelicans (Pelecanus erythrorhynchos) breeding in colonies at East Shoal Lake, Manitoba, Canada exhibited a mean hatching asynchrony of 2.5 days in 2-egg clutches. This resulted in a size difference between chicks which facilitated sibling dominance, harassment and lack of food for the subordinate chick. Only one young survived per nest. In marked broods, the secondhatched chick survived in 20% of successful nests. Manipulated clutch sizes (1, 2 and 3 eggs or chicks per nest) revealed that the presence of a second chick contributes significantly to the reproductive success of the parents. Results support the hypothesis that the second egg functions as a form of insurance against early loss of the first egg or chick. The parents, by establishing hatching asynchrony, by nonintervention in sibling aggression, and by selectively feeding the dominant chick, maximize their chance of rearing the most viable young.     

Aphid population response to agricultural landscape change: A spatially explicit,individual-based model

A spatially explicit individual-based simulation model has been developed to represent aphid population dynamics in agricultural landscapes. The application of the model to Rhopalosiphum padi (L.) population dynamics is detailed, including an outline of the construction of the model, its parameterisation and validation. Over time, the aphids interact with the landscape and with one another. The landscape is modified by varying a simple pesticide regime, and the multi-scale spatial and temporal implications for a population of aphids is analysed. The results show that a spatial modelling approach that considers the effects on the individual of landscape properties and factors such as wind speed and wind direction provides novel insight into aphid population dynamics both spatially and temporally. This forms the basis for the development of further simulation models that can be used to analyse how changes in landscape structure impact upon important species distributions and population dynamics.     

Long-term variability in the structure of subtidal benthic communities in Puget Sound,Washington, USA

Data on benthic infauna from 4 permanent stations in Puget Sound off Seattle, USA, collected during 1963–1964, 1967, and 1969, revealed considerable stability in numbers of species and specimens and in diversity within stations among sampling dates. The species composition of the faunal assemblages also remained rather constant during the period of investigation, but the relative dominance among the numerically important species varied somewhat. Biomass data did not differ significantly in 1964 and 1969, but the 1967 data were considerably lower at all stations.     

Female guppies shorten brood retention in response to predator cues

Predation risk influences the duration of offspring development in many species where embryos develop from externally shed eggs. Surprisingly, such predator-mediated effects on offspring development have rarely been explored in live-bearers. In this paper, we use the guppy (Poecilia reticulata), a live-bearing freshwater fish, to test whether the duration of brood retention (the time from mating to parturition) is influenced by experimental changes in the perceived level of predation. Because the swimming performance of female guppies is impaired during late pregnancy, we predicted that females would withhold broods for shorter periods when they are exposed to cues that signal a heightened risk of predation on adults rather than on juveniles. We therefore simulated increased risk of predation on adults by using a combination of pike-shaped models (resembling natural predators that prey on adult guppies) and ‘alarm substances’ derived from the skin extracts of adult conspecific females. Our results revealed that, under simulated predation risk, female guppies produced broods significantly more quickly than their counterparts assigned to a control group where predator cues were absent. A subsequent evaluation of offspring swimming performance revealed a significant positive association between neonate swimming speeds and the duration of brood retention, suggesting that by accelerating parturition, females may produce offspring with impaired locomotor skills. These findings, in conjunction with similar results from other live-bearing species, suggest that the conditions experienced by gestating females can generate significant variation in the timing of offspring development with potentially important implications for offspring fitness.     

Surface water acidification in the South Pennines II. Temporal trends

Data for eight reservoirs in the South Pennines covering the period 1980-98, and for 1988-98 at the River Etherow Acid Waters Monitoring Network site, have been analysed for temporal trends using the Seasonal Kendall test. Rising trends in pH were identified at seven of the eight reservoirs, generally accompanied by declining aluminium levels. Nitrate concentrations have, however, increased sharply at the two reservoirs for which adequate data were available. Data for a wider range of determinands at the Etherow suggest that pH increases in the region can be attributed to declining sulphate concentrations, as a result of reductions in sulphur deposition. Nitrate concentrations have again increased at this site. Results are significant in a national context in that pH recovery, although widely believed to have taken place in the UK since the 1970s, has rarely been shown to have occurred. For the South Pennine region, which has been severely acidified by historically high acid deposition levels, there have clearly been improvements over the last 18 years, although many surface waters remain acidic. Observed trends for nitrate suggest that some of the pH recovery resulting from reduced sulphur deposition may have been offset by nitrogen saturation in the region, due in part to continued high levels of nitrogen deposition.     

Recovery from acidification in European surface waters: a view to the future

There is now overwhelming documentation of large-scale chemical recovery from surface water acidification in Europe, but to date there has been little documentation of biological recovery. Modelling studies based on current emission reduction plans in Europe indicate that there will be further chemical recovery. The uncertainties in these scenarios mainly relate to the future behavior of nitrogen in the ecosystem and the effects of climate change. Four major climate-related confounding factors that may influence the chemical and biological recovery process are: i) increased frequency and severity of sea-salt episodes; ii) increased frequency and severity of drought; iii) increased turnover of organic carbon; iv) increased mineralization of nitrogen. International cooperative work to abate acidification has so far been very successful, but there is still a long way to go, and many potential setbacks. It is essential that future development of water chemistry and aquatic biota in acidified waterbodies continue to be monitored in relation to further emission reductions of S and N and future effects of climate change.