基于OPAQ的城市空气质量预报系统研究

空气质量预测在国内的关注度日益提高,传统的空气质量预测系统通常运用数值化学传输模型,利用物理方程来计算污染物的扩散、沉降和化学反应。而化学传输模型的预测准确性很大程度上需要依赖详细的污染源排放信息和气象模型的输出结果。基于统计模型的OPAQ空气质量预报业务系统,采用人工神经网络算法,可预测各污染物的日均值或日最大值。并对北京空气质量预报的结果进行了评价,OPAQ空气质量预报业务系统对空气质量预测的准确性较高,能够利用较低的计算资源得到较为准确的预测结果。与数值预报相比,OPAQ空气质量预报业务系统不需要大量的基础数据作为输入,可弥补数值预报的不足,并成为数值预报的有力补充。     

The consequences of poaching and anthropogenic change for forest elephants

Poaching has devastated forest elephant populations (Loxodonta cyclotis), and their habitat is dramatically changing. The long‐term effects of poaching and other anthropogenic threats have been well studied in savannah elephants (Loxodonta africana), but the impacts of these changes for Central Africa's forest elephants have not been discussed. We examined potential repercussions of these threats and the related consequences for forest elephants in Central Africa by summarizing the lessons learned from savannah elephants and small forest elephant populations in West Africa. Forest elephant social organization is less known than the social organization of savannah elephants, but the close evolutionary history of these species suggests that they will respond to anthropogenic threats in broadly similar ways. The loss of older, experienced individuals in an elephant population disrupts ecological, social, and population parameters. Severe reduction of elephant abundance within Central Africa's forests can alter plant communities and ecosystem functions. Poaching, habitat alterations, and human population increase are probably compressing forest elephants into protected areas and increasing human–elephant conflict, which negatively affects their conservation. We encourage conservationists to look beyond documenting forest elephant population decline and address the causes of these declines when developing conversation strategies. We suggest assessing the effectiveness of the existing protected‐area networks for landscape connectivity in light of current industrial and infrastructure development. Longitudinal assessments of the effects of landscape changes on forest elephant sociality and behavior are also needed. Finally, lessons learned from West African elephant population loss and habitat fragmentation should be used to inform strategies for land‐use planning and managing human–elephant interactions.     

Can the legacy of industrial pollution influence antimicrobial resistance in estuarine sediments?

Antimicrobial resistance (AMR) represents a major global health threat, as well as a major hazard to sustainable economic development and national security. It remains, therefore, vital that current research aligns to policy development and implementation to alleviate a potential crisis. One must consider, for example, whether drivers of antibiotic resistance can be controlled in the future, or have they already accumulated in the past, whether from antibiotics and/or other pollutants? Unfortunately, industrial heritage and its pollution impact on the prevalence of environmental AMR have largely been ignored. Focussing on industrialised estuaries, we demonstrate that anthropogenic pollution inputs in addition to the natural diurnal environmental conditions can sufficiently create stressful conditions to the microbiome and thus promote selective pressures to shift the resistome (i.e., collection of resistance traits in the microbiological community). Unfortunately, the bacteria’s survival mechanisms, via co-selective pressures, can affect their susceptibility to antibiotics. This review highlights the complexity of estuarine environments, using two key contaminant groups (metals/toxic elements and polyaromatic hydrocarbons), through which a variety of possible chemical and biological pollutant stressors can promote the emergence and dissemination of antimicrobial resistance. We find compelling divers to call on more focused research on historically disrupted ecosystems, in propagating AMR in the real world.

     

Trends and knowledge gaps in field research investigating effects of anthropogenic noise

Anthropogenic noise is a globally widespread sensory pollutant, recognized as having potentially adverse effects on function, demography, and physiology in wild animals. Human population growth and associated changes in urbanization, transportation, and resource extraction all contribute to anthropogenic noise and are predicted to increase in the coming decades. Wildlife exposure to anthropogenic noise is expected to rise correspondingly. Data collected through field research are uniquely important in advancing understanding of the real-world repercussions of human activity on wildlife. We, therefore, performed a systematic review of literature published from 2008 to 2018 that reported on field investigations of anthropogenic noise impacts. We evaluated publication metrics (e.g., publication rates and journal type), geographical distribution of studies, study subject, and methods used. Research activity increased markedly over the assessment period. However, there was a pronounced geographical bias in research, with most being conducted in North America or Europe, and a notable focus on terrestrial environments. Fewer than one-fifth of terrestrial studies were located in rural areas likely to experience urbanization by 2030, meaning data on ecosystems most likely to be affected by future changes are not being gathered. There was also bias in the taxonomic groups investigated. Most research was conducted on birds and aquatic mammals, whereas terrestrial mammals, reptiles, amphibians, fish, and invertebrates received limited attention. Almost all terrestrial studies examined diurnal species, despite evidence that nocturnality is the prevailing animal activity pattern. Nearly half the studies investigated effects of road or urban noise; the bulk of research was restricted to functional, rather than physiological or demographic consequences. Few experimental studies addressed repercussions of long-term exposure to anthropogenic noise or long-term postexposure effects, and multiple noise types or levels were rarely compared. Tackling these knowledge gaps will be vital for successful management of the effects of increasing wildlife exposure to anthropogenic noise.     

Building community resilience in a context of climate change: The role of social capital

Social capital is considered important for resilience across social levels, including communities, yet insights are scattered across disciplines. This meta-synthesis of 187 studies examines conceptual and empirical understandings of how social capital relates to resilience, identifying implications for community resilience and climate change practice. Different conceptualisations are highlighted, yet also limited focus on underlying dimensions of social capital and proactive types of resilience for engaging with the complex climate change challenge. Empirical insights show that structural and socio-cultural aspects of social capital, multiple other factors and formal actors are all important for shaping the role of social capital for guiding resilience outcomes. Thus, finding ways to work with these different elements is important. Greater attention on how and why outcomes emerge, interactions between factors, approaches of formal actors and different socio-cultural dimensions will advance understandings about how to nurture social capital for resilience in the context of climate change.     

Triclosan in individual human milk samples from Australia

Triclosan is a chlorinated phenol ether that has been in widespread use as a broad-spectrum antibacterial agent for four decades. When compared to the limited international data available on human body burden of triclosan, results from a pooled blood study suggested that triclosan concentrations in Australia were a factor two higher than observed in Sweden. This study determined triclosan levels in individual human milk samples (n = 151) collected between 2002 and 2005 from primiparous Australian mothers. It provided the first report of population triclosan levels and individual variation in Australia and gave a measure of infant exposure via breast feeding. The distribution of triclosan concentration was positively skewed, with 7.2% of the samples below the LOQ, 66% with a concentration of less than or equal to 1.0 ng g⁻¹ fresh weight and the remaining samples above 1 ng g⁻¹ reaching a maximum concentration of 19 ng g⁻¹ fresh weight. The mean and median triclosan concentrations were 1.3 ± 2.7 ng g⁻¹ f.w. and 0.26 ng g⁻¹ f.w., respectively. The results of this study showed high variability in triclosan concentrations between individuals and no correlations with maternal age (p = 0.094), maternal weight (p = 0.971) or infant age at the time of sample collection (p = 0.621). A large number of samples contained low or non-quantifiable concentrations of triclosan and so, in Australia, ubiquitous background exposure due to environmental sources is low. This means that body burden can be influenced by an individual’s use of triclosan containing product. Given that triclosan containing product use is continuing, it is important that monitoring in both humans and the environment is continued and that triclosan containing products are adequately labeled so that an individual can choose to avoid exposure.     

Climate change impacts on rainfed cropping production systems in the tropics and the case of smallholder farms in North-west Cambodia

The consequences of climate change on smallholder farms are locally specific and difficult to quantify because of variations in farming systems, complexity of agricultural and non-agricultural livelihood activities and climate-related vulnerability. One way to better understand the issues is to learn from the experiences of farmers themselves. Thus, this study aimed to better understand rainfed upland cropping systems in NW Cambodia and to identify practical, social and economic constraints to adoption of known climate adaptation options applicable to local agro-ecosystems. The study also sought to document the climate change perceptions and adaptation options employed by farmers to mitigate the climate risks. A household survey was conducted in the districts of Sala Krau and Samlout in North-west Cambodia in 2013 where 390 representatives of households were randomly selected for interviews, group discussions and field observations. The majority of respondents perceived that changes had occurred in the rainfall pattern such as a later start to the monsoon season, decreasing annual rainfall, increasing frequencies of drought and dry spells, and warmer temperatures. Farmers reported reductions in crop yields of 16–27 % over the five-year period of 2008–2012. However, these reductions were not evident in provincial data for the same period. Farmers claimed climate impacts resulted in significant yield reductions, but they appear not to have an effective strategy to adapt to the changes in climate. Further regional research is required to refine climate change adaptation strategies for rainfed upland cropping systems in Cambodia.     

Detecting and Coping with Disruptive Shocks in Arctic Marine Systems: A Resilience Approach to Place and People

It seems inevitable that the ongoing and rapid changes in the physical environment of the marine Arctic will push components of the region’s existing social-ecological systems—small and large—beyond tipping points and into new regimes. Ongoing changes include warming, freshening, acidification, and alterations to food web structure. In anticipation we pose three distinct but interrelated challenges: (1) to explore existing connectivities within components of the marine system; (2) to seek indicators (if they exist) of approaching regime change through observation and modeling; and (3) to build functional resilience into existing systems through adaptation-oriented policy and to have in hand transformative options when tipping points are crossed and new development trajectories are required. Each of the above challenges is scale dependent, and each requires a much deeper understanding than we currently have of connectivity within existing systems and their response to external forcing. Here, we argue from a global perspective the need to understand the Arctic’s role in an increasingly nonlinear world; then describe emerging evidence from new observations on the connectivity of processes and system components from the Canada Basin and subarctic seas surrounding northern North America; and finally posit an approach founded in “resilience thinking” to allow northern residents living in small coastal communities to participate in the observation, adaption and—if necessary—transformation of the social-ecological system with which they live.     

Partitioning of persistent organic pollutants (POPs) between human serum and breast milk: A literature review

The literature was reviewed to assess the relationship between the lipid adjusted concentration in human serum and breast milk (expressed as the serum/milk ratio) of a broad range of POPs in paired samples. Thirteen studies were identified, including seven studies that reported serum/milk ratios for polychlorinated dibenzo-dioxins and -furans (PCDD/Fs), ten for polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs), five for polybrominated diphenyl ethers (PBDEs), and five for organochlorine pesticides (OCPs). Mean serum/milk ratios ranged between 0.7 and 25 depending on the compound and congener. For PCDD/Fs, PCBs and PBDEs, a clear trend of increasing mean serum/milk ratio by increasing molar volume, hydrophobicity and number of halogen substitutes was observed. The mean serum/milk ratios reported by the 13 studies summarized here will aid comparison between human POPs exposure studies using either serum or milk samples. More studies are needed to allow a valid comparison between data obtained from analysis of breast milk and serum samples for a broader range of POPs. Furthermore such studies may shed light on compound specific factors as well as other determinants that may affect the partitioning and partition kinetics of POPs between serum and breast milk.     

Continuous high-frequency monitoring of estuarine water quality as a decision support tool: a Dublin Port case study

High-frequency, continuous monitoring using in situ sensors offers a comprehensive and improved insight into the temporal and spatial variability of any water body. In this paper, we describe a 7-month exploratory monitoring programme in Dublin Port, demonstrating the value of high-frequency data in enhancing knowledge of processes, informing discrete sampling, and ultimately increasing the efficiency of port and environmental management. Kruskal–Wallis and Mann–Whitney tests were used to show that shipping operating in Dublin Port has a small–medium effect on turbidity readings collected by in situ sensors. Turbidity events are largely related to vessel activity in Dublin Port, caused by re-suspension of sediments by vessel propulsion systems. The magnitudes of such events are strongly related to water level and tidal state at vessel arrival times. Crucially, measurements of Escherichia coli and enterococci contamination from discrete samples taken at key periods related to detected turbidity events were up to nine times higher after vessel arrival than prior to disturbance. Daily in situ turbidity patterns revealed time-dependent water quality “hot spots” during a 24-h period. We demonstrate conclusively that if representative environmental assessment of water quality is to be performed at such sites, sampling times, informed by continous monitoring data, should take into account these daily variations. This work outlines the potential of sensor technologies and continuous monitoring, to act as a decision support tool in both environmental and port management.