Why Use One Model? An Approach for Encompassing Model Uncertainty and Improving Best Practice

There has been some discussion within the UK modelling community regarding the preferred choice of dispersion model for assessing the air quality impact of elevated point sources, each of which is reported to perform better than the other in certain circumstances. Coupled to this is the growing acceptance within the modelling community to include some recognition of model uncertainty in its reporting. As computer processing speeds increase further, this paper considers the possibility of using more than one model and highlights some of the advantages in doing so.     

Measuring Biotechnology Employees’ Ethical Attitudes towards a Controversial Transgenic Cattle Project: The Ethical Valence Matrix

What is the relationship between biotechnology employees’ beliefs about the moral outcomes of a controversial transgenic research project and their attitudes of acceptance towards the project? To answer this question, employees (n=466) of a New Zealand company, AgResearch Ltd., were surveyed regarding a project to create transgenic cattle containing a synthetic copy of the human myelin basic protein gene (hMBP). Although diversity existed amongst employees’ attitudes of acceptance, they were generally: in favor of the project, believed that it should be allowed to proceed to completion, and that it is acceptable to use transgenic cattle to produce medicines for humans. These three items were aggregated to form a project acceptance score. Scales were developed to measure respondents’ beliefs about the moral outcomes of the project for identified stakeholders in terms of the four principles of common morality (benefit, non-harm, justice, and autonomy). These data were statistically aggregated into an Ethical Valence Matrix for the project. The respondents’ project Ethical Valence Scores correlated significantly with their project acceptance scores (r=0.64, p<0.001), accounting for 41% of the variance in respondents’ acceptance attitudes. Of the four principles, non-harm had the strongest correlation with attitude to the project (r=0.59), followed by benefit and justice (both r=0.54), then autonomy (r=0.44). These results indicate that beliefs about the moral outcomes of a research project, in terms of the four principles approach, are strongly related to, and may be significant determinants of, attitudes to the research project. This suggests that, for employees of a biotechnology organization, ethical reasoning could be a central mechanism for the evaluation of the acceptability of a project. We propose that the Ethical Valence Matrix may be used as a tool to measure ethical attitudes towards controversial issues, providing a metric for comparison of perceived ethical consequences for multiple stakeholder groups and for the evaluation and comparison of the ethical consequences of competing alternative issues or projects. The tool could be used to measure both public and special interest groups’ ethical attitudes and results used for the development of socially responsible policy or by science organizations as a democratizing decision aid to selection amongst projects competing for scarce research funds.     

Global transport rates of Cs and Pu originating from the Nagasaki A-bomb in 1945 as determined from analysis of Canadian Arctic ice cores

Recent advancements in analytical technology make it possible for artificial radionuclides released from nuclear explosions to be detected in Arctic ice core layers. The fission product, ¹³⁷Cs, and the unexpended fission material, ^239+240Pu, originating from the Nagasaki A-bomb of August 1945, were measured by collecting 10 ice cores on the Agassiz ice cap, Ellesmere Island, Canada. The deposition rates were 0·020 mBq cm^-2 for ¹³⁷Cs and 0·0016 mBq cm^-2 for ^239+240Pu, originating from Nagasaki. Assuming the radionuclides, excluding the amount fissioned from the explosion and deposi-ted as local fallout, are deposited evenly throughout the Northern Hemisphere, 67% of the expected amount of ¹³⁷Cs reached the Arctic while 1·1% of ^239+240Pu reached the Arctic. The results suggest that different transport mechanisms exist for various contaminants in the global transport system.     

Treatment of Urban Areas within a Regional Transport Model of Sulphur and Nitrogen Oxides

The air pollution transport model UGEM (The University of Greenwich Evaluation Model) has been developed to evaluate medium-range transport and deposition of sulphur and oxidised nitrogen from all types of sources of emissions in the UK and to estimate their average annual deposition and concentrations across the UK. The model has been tested for its predictions against the available measurements.This study was focused on a possibility of applying the UGEM model to the assessment of air quality on a local scale. One parameter in the model is crucial, the local deposition fraction. The effect of this parameter on quality of the model predictions has been studied for different scales of UGEM output, such as the whole territory of the UK, a rural region and an urban area.The results of the study show that the magnitude of the local deposition fraction should be different for each grid square to reach the best agreement of predictions of concentrations with measurements. Applying a local value of the parameter to each grid square will improve the model predictions of the concentrations in urban areas in particular and will not affect the quality of model predictions of the wet deposition.     

Workshop report on the extraction of foetal DNA from maternal plasma

Objective Cell free foetal DNA (cff DNA) extracted from maternal plasma is now recognized as a potential source for prenatal diagnosis but the methodology is currently not well standardized. To evaluate different manual and automated DNA extraction methods with a view to developing standards, an International Workshop was performed. Methods Three plasma pools from RhD-negative pregnant women, a DNA standard, real-time-PCR protocol, primers and probes for RHD were sent to 12 laboratories and also to one company (Qiagen, Hilden, Germany). In pre-tests, pool 3 showed a low cff DNA concentration, pool 1 showed a higher concentration and pool 2 an intermediate concentration. Results The QIAamp DSP Virus Kit, the High Pure PCR Template Preparation Kit, an in-house protocol using the QIAamp DNA Blood Mini Kit, the CST genomic DNA purification kit, the Magna Pure LC, the MDx, the M48, the EZ1 and an in-house protocol using magnetic beads for manual and automated extraction were the methods that were able to reliably detect foetal RHD. The best results were obtained with the QIAamp DSP Virus Kit. The QIAamp DNA Blood Mini Kit showed very comparable results in laboratories that followed the manufacturer's protocol and started with ≥ 500 µL plasma. One participant using the QIAamp DNA Blood Midi Kit failed to detect reliably RHD in pool 3. Conclusions This workshop initiated a standardization process for extraction of cff DNA in maternal plasma. The highest yield was obtained by the QIAamp DSP Virus Kit, a result that will be evaluated in more detail in future studies. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Resilience from the ground up: how are local resilience perceptions and global frameworks aligned?

Numerous resilience measurement frameworks for climate programmes have emerged over the past decade to operationalise the concept and aggregate results within and between programmes. Proxies of resilience, including subjective measures using perception data, have been proposed to measure resilience, but there is limited evidence on their validity and use for policy and practice. This article draws on research on the Decentralising Climate Funds project of the Building Resilience and Adaptation to Climate Extremes and Disasters programme, which supports communities in Mali and Senegal to improve climate resilience through locally controlled adaptation funds. It explores attributes of resilience from this bottom‐up perspective to assess its predictors and alignment with food security, as a proxy of well‐being. We find different patterns when comparing resilience and the well‐being proxy, illustrating that the interplay between the two is still unclear. Results also point to the importance of contextualising resilience, raising implications for aggregating results.     

Breaking Bergmann's rule: truncation of Northwest Atlantic marine fish body sizes

A strictly species-centric view of human impacts on ecological communities may conceal important trait changes key to ecosystem functioning and stability. Analyses of body size and community composition data for 326 Northwest Atlantic fish species sampled across > 900000 km2 over three decades revealed a rapid and widespread reduction of body sizes driven by declines within species and changes in relative abundances. The changes were unrelated to species richness but of sufficient magnitude to eliminate biogeographic scale gradients of increasing body size with latitude commonly characterized as Bergmann's rule. These changes have persisted despite reduced potential for intraspecific competition and favorable bottom water temperatures, both of which should lead to increased growth rates. The aggregate body sizes in these Northwest Atlantic fish communities may now represent a mismatch between the environmental variability characteristic of the Northwest Atlantic and the historical body size, life history traits, and productivity of species across this region. We discuss how these changes may jeopardize the potential for recovery of these important temperate/subarctic ecosystems.     

The influence of drainage networks on patterns of soil respiration in a desert catchment

Hydrologic flow and connectivity act as important determinants of ecological pattern and process in heterogeneous landscapes. Here we examine how the routing of water through the drainage network of an upper Sonoran Desert basin influences landscape patterns of soil respiration (SR) at both seasonal and event-based timescales. At seasonal timescales, SR varied up to 13-fold with downstream position in the drainage network, and annual estimates of CO2 efflux ranged from 185 g C x m(-2) x yr(-1) to 1190 g C x m(-2) x yr(-1) for sites arrayed along the same flow path. Spatial patterns of SR were unrelated to the carbon and water content of surface soils, but rather tracked changes in plant size and productivity, which in turn reflect downstream increases in groundwater availability. The relative importance of precipitation and temperature as drivers of SR also changed with landscape position, with the latter becoming more important in downstream locations. At the scale of individual precipitation events, SR increased up to 30-fold upon rewetting but typically returned to background levels within 24 h, even when soil moisture remained elevated. Unlike patterns observed at seasonal scales, event-based losses of CO2 varied across the landscape as a function of the organic-matter content in surface soils. Results from labile carbon amendments confirm that CO2 losses following precipitation pulses are initially constrained by substrate availability, not soil drying. By mediating spatial patterns of vegetation structure and soil resource availability, drainage networks represent an important physical template upon which belowground processes are organized in desert basins.     

Biotic and abiotic controls of Argentine ant invasion success at local and landscape scales

Although the ecological success of introduced species hinges on biotic interactions and physical conditions, few experimental studies--especially on animals--have simultaneously investigated the relative importance of both types of factors. The lack of such research may stem from the common assumption that native and introduced species exhibit similar environmental tolerances. Here we combine experimental and spatial modeling approaches (1) to determine the relative importance of biotic and abiotic controls of Argentine ant (Linepithema humile) invasion success, (2) to examine how the importance of these factors changes with spatial scale in southern California (USA), and (3) to assess how Argentine ants differ from native ants in their environmental tolerances. A factorial field experiment that combined native ant removal with irrigation revealed that Argentine ants failed to invade any dry plots (even those lacking native ants) but readily invaded all moist plots. Native ants slowed the spread of Argentine ants into irrigated plots but did not prevent invasion. In areas without Argentine ants, native ant species showed variable responses to irrigation. At the landscape scale, Argentine ant occurrence was positively correlated with minimum winter temperature (but not precipitation), whereas native ant diversity increased with precipitation and was negatively correlated with minimum winter temperature. These results are of interest for several reasons. First, they demonstrate that fine-scale differences in the physical environment can eclipse biotic resistance from native competitors in determining community susceptibility to invasion. Second, our results illustrate surprising complexities with respect to how the abiotic factors limiting invasion can change with spatial scale, and third, how native and invasive species can differ in their responses to the physical environment. Idiosyncratic and scale-dependent processes complicate attempts to forecast where introduced species will occur and how their range limits may shift as a result of climate change.     

Dendrochemical analysis of lead and calcium in southern Appalachian American beech

The health of the northern hardwood forest in the southern Appalachian Mountains of Tennessee, North Carolina, and Virginia has gained attention from the media and environmental stakeholders due to a purported decline in forest health at higher elevations. This project examined lead (Pb) and calcium (Ca) concentrations in growth rings of an important northern hardwood species, American beech (Fagus grandifolia Ehrh.) at Mount Rogers and Whitetop Mountain, Virginia and attempted to examine concentration relationships with stem growth patterns. Dominant and codominant trees were sampled from 16 research plots at two elevations. Tree cores were crossdated, divided into sections of 10-yr periods, and analyzed using atomic absorption spectroscopy. Lead concentrations correlated negatively with ring width. Elevation and aspect were significantly associated with the Pb concentration, while Ca concentrations were only associated with aspect. Tree core samples taken from higher elevation plots contained higher Pb concentrations than samples collected from lower elevation plots, while the northwest and southwest aspects contained significantly higher amounts of Pb and Ca. Both Pb and Ca concentrations increased during the 1860s and again during the mid-1900s.