In this paper we study the determination of optimal water storage capacity in a region, taking into account that the supply of the resource, the flow into the reserve, is uncertain, that a measure of the uncertainty, the variance, is likely to increase with climate change, that building capacity is costly, and that the development of water resources may entail alsoenvironmental costs. We find that water storage capacity in the long run ispositivelyrelated to increases in uncertainty if the marginal benefit of water withdrawal isconvexand that, for the case of costly reversibility of investment, a range of inaction for investment appears, and the stability of water storage capacity with respect to changes in variance increases. 相似文献
Objective: Studies of alcohol-related harm (violence, injury, illness) suggest that the most significant risk factors are the amount of alcohol consumed and whether obviously intoxicated patrons continue to be served. This study's objective was to investigate the effects of a responsible beverage service (RBS)/enhanced alcohol enforcement intervention on bars, bar patrons, and impaired driving.
Method: Two communities—Monroe County, New York, and Cleveland, Ohio—participated in a demonstration program and evaluation. The intervention applied RBS training, targeted enforcement, and corrective actions by law enforcement to a random sample of 10 identified problem bars in each community compared to 10 matched nonintervention problem bars. Data were collected over 3 waves on bar serving practices, bar patron intoxication, drinking and driving, and other alcohol-related harm from intervention and control bars and treatment and comparison communities.
Results: In Monroe County, New York, of the 14 outcome measures analyzed, 7 measures showed statistically significant differences from pre- to postintervention. Six of those measures indicated changes in the desired or positive direction and 2 measures were in the undesired or negative direction. Of note in the positive direction, the percentage of intervention bar patrons who were intoxicated decreased from 44 to 27% and the average blood alcohol concentration of patrons decreased from 0.097 to 0.059 g/dL pre- to postintervention. In Cleveland, Ohio, 6 of the 14 measures showed statistically significant changes pre- to postintervention with 6 in the positive direction and 4 in the negative direction. Of note, the percentage of pseudo-intoxicated patrons denied service in intervention bars increased from 6 to 29%.
Conclusions: Of the 14 outcome measures that were analyzed in each community, most indicated positive changes associated with the intervention, but others showed negative associations. About half of the measures showed no significance, the sample sizes were too small, or the data were unavailable. Therefore, at best, the results of these demonstration programs were mixed. There were, however, some positive indications from the intervention. It appears that when bar managers and owners are aware of the program and its enforcement and when servers are properly trained in RBS, fewer patrons may become intoxicated and greater efforts may be made to deny service to obviously intoxicated patrons. Given that about half of arrested impaired drivers had their last drink at a licensed establishment, widespread implementation of this strategy has the potential to help reduce impaired driving. 相似文献
Under controlled laboratory conditions, we have examined the bioaccumulation of 137Cs and 57Co in three prymnesiophytes, the coccolithophorid Emiliania huxleyi and the noncalcareous species Isochrysis galbana and Phaeocystis globosa, and two diatoms Skeletonema costatum and Thalassiosira pseudonana. We measured the uptake in growing and non-growing cells and determined concentration factors on both volume and dry weight bases. For uptake of 57Co in non-growing cells, volume concentration factors (VCF) at equilibrium ranged from 0.2 x 10(3) for E. huxleyi to 4 x 10(3) for T. pseuedonana. For uptake of 137Cs in non-growing cells, the VCFs were low for all species and the uptake pattern seemed unsystematic. The results suggest that, in contrast to Co, the cycling and bioaccumulation of Cs in marine animals are unlikely to be affected by Cs accumulation in primary producers. 相似文献
Human exposures to air pollution control (APC) residues released from 6 landfills were modeled and assessed. Following a qualitative risk characterisation, direct and indirect exposures were quantified. Site-specific air dispersion modeling was conducted for PM(10), PCDDs/PCDFs, Pb, Cd, As and Cr(VI) concentrations at the closest residential points of exposure for 4 landfill sites accepting, in total, 75% w/w of the APC residues disposed of in 2000-2001 (UK). Inhalation risks, assessed by reference to air quality standards at residential exposure points, were assessed as insignificant. Preliminary modeling suggested that indirect exposures from PCDDs/PCDFs at the 95th percentile level for the site where APC deposition rates were highest could potentially exceed the tolerable daily soil intake (TDSI) but this warrants further study given the model limitations. These results offer an initial screen of the significance of potential risks from APC disposal, which is of value in addressing concerns about the uncertainty of potential risks to human health from bulk APC disposal at strategic locations. 相似文献
The authors highlight the importance of the trippage of a returnable bottle to the current beverage container debate. Results of recent surveys of consumers and retailers are presented, which show that the reasons for low trippages in the UK are more complex than the conventional diagnosis that ‘consumers cannot be bothered to return bottles’. In many instances consumers thought that the ‘returnable bottle was ‘non- returnable’ and many consumers found it difficult to return bottles to the shops. Making it easier for consumers to return the bottle would appear to be a more effective method of raising trippage than increasing the deposit levels. 相似文献
For federal and state land management agencies, mineral resource appraisal has evolved from value-based to outcome-based procedures wherein the consequences of resource development are compared with those of other management options. Complex systems modeling is proposed as a general framework in which to build models that can evaluate outcomes. Three frequently used methods of mineral resource appraisal (subjective probabilistic estimates, weights of evidence modeling, and fuzzy logic modeling) are discussed to obtain insight into methods of incorporating complexity into mineral resource appraisal models. Fuzzy logic and weights of evidence are most easily utilized in complex systems models. A fundamental product of new appraisals is the production of reusable, accessible databases and methodologies so that appraisals can easily be repeated with new or refined data. The data are representations of complex systems and must be so regarded if all of their information content is to be utilized.The proposed generalized model framework is applicable to mineral assessment and other geoscience problems. We begin with a (fuzzy) cognitive map using (+1,0,–1) values for the links and evaluate the map for various scenarios to obtain a ranking of the importance of various links. Fieldwork and modeling studies identify important links and help identify unanticipated links. Next, the links are given membership functions in accordance with the data. Finally, processes are associated with the links; ideally, the controlling physical and chemical events and equations are found for each link. After calibration and testing, this complex systems model is used for predictions under various scenarios.
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ABSTRACT: Static 96-hour median lethal concentrations were determined for the water-soluble fraction (WSF) of both petroleum-derived and shale-derived avaiation fuels (JP-4 and JP-8) using fathead minnows. JP-8 was more toxic than JP-4 except for one shale JP-4 sample that was as toxic as the JP-8. Petroleum and shale JP-8 were similar in toxicity. The toxicity of shale JP-4 was less clear. Shale JP-4 from three vendor sources revealed differing toxicity values. One shale JP-4 sample was more toxic and one less toxic than its petroleum analogue, with the third being equally toxic. Toxicity of the fuels may be enhanced by compounds in the WSF that correspond to chemicals containing 10 or more carbon atoms. 相似文献
ABSTRACT: A method to partition the variation in concentrations of water chemistry parameters in a river is described. The approach consists of fitting a family of curves for each chemical parameter. Each curve indicates the response of the parameter to river flow for a particular time period or location. An analysis of covariance is then used to identify statistically significant differences between curves. Such differences result largely from two factors: (1) the discharge of effluents and (2) river flow-concentration relationships. The deviations from the fitted curves indicate month-to-month variations unrelated to river flow that are controlled by factors such as temperature-related seasonal patterns. Underlying statistical assumptions are discussed with respect to water chemistry data. The technique is applied to a data set consisting of monthly samples of 22 water chemistry parameters from the Sulphur River of Texas and Arkansas. Several patterns of response to river flow and to two effluent discharges were revealed. 相似文献