Prediction models of CO, SPM and SO2 concentrations in the Campo de Gibraltar Region, Spain: a multiple comparison strategy

The 'Campo de Gibraltar' region is a very industrialized area where very few air pollution studies have been carried out. Up to date, no model has been developed in order to predict air pollutant levels in the different towns spread in the region. Carbon monoxide (CO), Sulphur dioxide (SO(2)) and suspended particulate matter (SPM) series have been investigated (years 1999-2000-2001). Multilayer perceptron models (MLPs) with backpropagation learning rule have been used. A resampling strategy with two-fold crossvalidation allowed the statistical comparison of the different models considered in this study. Artificial neural networks (ANN) models were compared with Persistence and ARIMA models and also with models based on standard Multiple Linear Regression (MLR) over test sets with data that had not been used in the training stage. The models based on ANNs showed better capability of generalization than those based on MLR. The designed procedure of random resampling permits an adequate and robust multiple comparison of the tested models. Principal component analysis (PCA) is used to reduce the dimensionality of data and to transform exogenous variables into significant and independent components. Short-term predictions were better than medium-term predictions in the case of CO and SO(2) series. Conversely, medium-term predictions were better in the case of SPM concentrations. The predictions are significantly promising (e.g., d (SPM 24-ahead) = 0.906, d (CO 1-ahead) = 0.891, d (SO2 1-ahead) = 0.851).     

Transport of simazine in unsaturated sandy soil and predictions of its leaching under hypothetical field conditions

The potential contamination of groundwater by herbicides is often controlled by processes in the vadose zone, through which herbicides travel before entering groundwater. In the vadose zone, both physical and chemical processes affect the fate and transport of herbicides, therefore it is important to represent these processes by mathematical models to predict contaminant movement. To simulate the movement of simazine, a herbicide commonly used in Chilean vineyards, batch and miscible displacement column experiments were performed on a disturbed sandy soil to quantify the primary parameters and processes of simazine transport. Chloride (Cl(-)) was used as a non-reactive tracer, and simazine as the reactive tracer. The Hydrus-1D model was used to estimate the parameters by inversion from the breakthrough curves of the columns and to evaluate the potential groundwater contamination in a sandy soil from the Casablanca Valley, Chile. The two-site, chemical non-equilibrium model was observed to best represent the experimental results of the miscible displacement experiments in laboratory soil columns. Predictions of transport under hypothetical field conditions using the same soil from the column experiments were made for 40 years by applying herbicide during the first 20 years, and then halting the application and considering different rates of groundwater recharge. For recharge rates smaller than 84 mm year(-1), the predicted concentration of simazine at a depth of 1 m is below the U.S. EPA's maximum contaminant levels (4 microg L(-1)). After eight years of application at a groundwater recharge rate of 180 mm year(-1) (approximately 50% of the annual rainfall), simazine was found to reach the groundwater (located at 1 m depth) at a higher concentration (more than 40 microg L(-1)) than the existing guidelines in the USA and Europe.     

Analysis and residue levels of forchlorfenuron (CPPU) in watermelons

This paper describes the application of liquid chromatography-tandem mass spectrometry (LC/MS-MS) for analysis of residues of forchlorfenuron (CPPU), a new plant growth regulator, in watermelons, after a sample preparation step based on the buffered Quick, Easy, Cheap, Effective, Rugged and Safe extraction method. Analytical determinations were carried out in a triple quadrupole system fitted with an electrospray interphase operating in the positive ionisation mode (ESI+). Three simultaneous MS-MS transitions of the quasi-molecular ion m/z 248 (precursor ion) were monitored for data acquisition (248 > 129, 248 > 155, and 248 > 248), using the transition 248 > 129 for quantitation. Recovery studies on watermelons at levels of 1-200 microg/kg, performing five replicates at each level and using bracketing single-level calibration with matrix-matched standards for quantitation, gave forchlorfenuron mean recoveries ranging from 82 to 106% with relative standard deviations (RSD) lower than 18%. The limit of determination was established at 1 microg/kg. The method was applied to evaluate the persistence of forchlorfenuron residues in watermelons grown in plastic greenhouses, after applying an individual spray treatment to the flower ovary at the anthesis stage (45 mu g/flower and 60 mu g/flower for cv "Extazy" and cv "reina de corazones" watermelons, respectively). One month after treatment, 20 "Extazy" watermelon units (1.5-2 kg/unit) and 20 "Reina de corazones" watermelon units (4-5 kg/unit) were collected and analyzed individually. None of the samples contained forchlorfenuron residues higher than 1 microg/kg.     

Mercury sorption to sediments: dependence on grain size, dissolved organic carbon, and suspended bacteria

A combination of laboratory scale derived correlations and measurements of grain size distribution, DOC (dissolved organic carbon) concentration, and density of suspended bacteria promises to be useful in estimating Hg(II) sorption in heterogeneous streambeds and groundwater environments. This was found by shaking intact sediment and fractions thereof (<63-2000mum) with solutions of HgCl(2) (1.0-10.0ngml(-1)). The intact sediment was also shaken with the Hg(II) solutions separately in presence of DOC (6.5-90.2mugml(-1)) or brought in contact with suspensions of a strain of groundwater bacteria (2x10(4)-2x10(6)cellsml(-1)). Hg(II) sorption was rather weak and positively correlated with the grain size, and the sorption coefficient (K(d)) varied between about 300 and 600mlg(-1). By using the relative surface areas of the fractions, K(d) for the intact sediment was back calculated with 2% deviation. K(d) was negatively correlated with the concentration of DOC and positively correlated with the number of bacteria. A multiple regression showed that K(d) was significantly more influenced by the number of bacteria than by the grain size. The findings imply that common DOC concentrations in groundwater and streambeds, 5-20mugml(-1), will halve the K(d) obtained from standard sorption assays of Hg(II), and that K(d) will almost double when the cell numbers are doubled at densities that are common in aquifers. The findings suggest that simultaneous measurements of surface areas of sediment particles, DOC concentrations, and bacterial numbers are useful to predict spatial variation of Hg(II) sorption in aquifers and sandy sediments.     

A novel approach to predict aquatic toxicity from molecular structure

The main aim of the study was to develop quantitative structure-activity relationship (QSAR) models for the prediction of aquatic toxicity using atom-based non-stochastic and stochastic linear indices. The used dataset consist of 392 benzene derivatives, separated into training and test sets, for which toxicity data to the ciliate Tetrahymena pyriformis were available. Using multiple linear regression, two statistically significant QSAR models were obtained with non-stochastic (R2=0.791 and s=0.344) and stochastic (R2=0.799 and s=0.343) linear indices. A leave-one-out (LOO) cross-validation procedure was carried out achieving values of q2=0.781 (scv=0.348) and q2=0.786 (scv=0.350), respectively. In addition, a validation through an external test set was performed, which yields significant values of Rpred2 of 0.762 and 0.797. A brief study of the influence of the statistical outliers in QSAR's model development was also carried out. Finally, our method was compared with other approaches implemented in the Dragon software achieving better results. The non-stochastic and stochastic linear indices appear to provide an interesting alternative to costly and time-consuming experiments for determining toxicity.     

Essential and toxic elements in infant foods from Spain, UK, China and USA

Spanish gluten-free rice, cereals with gluten, and pureed baby foods were analysed for essential macro-elements (Ca and Na), essential trace elements (Fe, Cu, Zn, Mn, Se, Cr, Co and Ni) and non-essential trace elements (As, Pb, Cd and Hg) using ICP-MS and AAS. Baby cereals were an excellent source of most of the essential elements (Ca, Fe, Cu, Mn and Zn). Sodium content was high in pureed foods to improve their flavour; fish products were also rich in Se. USA pure baby rice samples had the highest contents of all studied essential elements, showing a different nutrient pattern compared to those of other countries. Mineral fortification was not always properly stated in the labelling of infant foods. Complementary infant foods may also contain significant amounts of contaminants. The contents of Hg and Cd were low enough to guarantee the safety of these infant foods. However, it will be necessary to identify the source and reduce the levels of Pb, Cr and As in Spanish foods. Pure baby rice samples contained too much: Pb in Spain; As in UK; As, Cr and Ni in USA; and Cr and Cd in China.     

Large and mesoscale meteo-oceanographic patterns in local responses of biogeochemical concentrations

Investigations surrounding the variability of productivity in upwelling regions are necessary for a better understanding the physical-biological coupling in these regions by monitoring systems of environmental impacts according to the needs of the regional coastal management. Using a spatial and temporal database from National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) and National Center for Atmospheric (NCAR) Research reanalysis, Quick Scatterometer vector wind, and surface stations from the Southeast coast of Brazil, we investigate the meteorological influences due to the large-scale systems in the variability of the nutrient and larvae concentration, and chlorophyll a, describing statistically relationships between them in upwelling regions. In addition, we used multivariate analysis, such as PCA and clustering to verify spatial and temporal variances and describe more clear the structure and composition of the ecosystem. Correlation matrix analyses were applied for different water masses present in the study area to identify the relations between physical and biogeochemical parameters in a region, where frequently upwelling occur. Statistical approaches and seasonal variability show that the period of November to March is more sensitive to nutrients (1.20?mg/m(3) for chlorophyll a, 2.20?μmol/l for total nitrogen and 5.5?ml/l for DO) and larvae concentrations (120 org/m(3) for most of the larvae, except for cirripedia that presented values around 370 org/m(3)) relating to the influence of large and mesoescale meteorological patterns. The spatial and temporal variables analyzed with multivariate approach show meaningful seasonality variance of the physical and biological samples, characterizing the principal components responsible for this variance in spring and summer (upwelling period), emphasizing the monitoring of species as crustaceans and mussels that are present in the local economy. Then, the spring and summer season are characterized by high productivity due to the occurrence of upwelling in this period.     

Groundwater contamination evolution in the Guadiamar and Agrio aquifers after the Aznalcóllar spill: assessment and environmental implications

In 1998, the Agrio and Guadiamar rivers underwent an enormous environmental disaster caused by the rupture of the Aznalcóllar tailings dam and the release of 6 hm³ of pyrite sludge and acidic water. Both rivers run over recent alluvial materials which form a small-sized aquifer which is however important because underground water feeds the flow of the rivers. This work analyzes the state of groundwater 10 years after the spill. Before the dam failure, this aquifer was already contaminated in the zone nearest to the mine, to which the impact of the spill was added. Contamination levels in the alluvial aquifer of the Agrio River have decreased remarkably. However, they are still important, with acidic pH values and high concentrations of toxic elements (maximum values of 16 mg/L of Zn and 15 mg/L of Al). There are also important levels of contamination in the Guadiamar alluvial area closest to the mine, as well as in specific zones located further south. The concentration of toxic elements is mainly controlled by pH. The evolution of contaminant levels show a sharp decrease after the first years following the spill, followed by a subsequent stabilization. It is necessary to take measures for the recovery of the aquifer because, otherwise, groundwater will continue contributing contaminants into the Agrio and Guadiamar rivers.     

DDT, DDE, and 1-hydroxypyrene levels in children (in blood and urine samples) from Chiapas and Oaxaca, Mexico

The aim of this study was to evaluate the DDT, DDE, and 1-hydroxypyrene exposure levels of children living in communities located in southeastern Mexico. The study communities were Lacanja and Victoria in Chiapas state and Ventanilla in Oaxaca state. Children living in Lacanja had total blood DDT levels (mean?±?SD, 29,039.6?±?11,261.4 ng/g lipid) that were significantly higher than those of children in Victoria (10,220.5?±?7,893.1 ng/g lipid) and Ventanilla (11,659.7?±?6,683.7 ng/g lipid). With respect to the 1-hydroxypyrene levels in urine samples, the levels in Lacanja (4.8?±?4.1 μg/L or 4.5?±?3.9 μmol/mol creatinine) and Victoria (4.6?±?3.8 μg/L or 3.9?±?3.0 μmol/mol Cr) were significantly higher than levels found in Ventanilla (3.6?±?1.4 μg/L or 2.5?±?0.5 μmol/mol Cr). In conclusion, our data indicate high levels of exposure in children living in the communities studied in this work. The evidence found in this study could be further used as a trigger to revisit local policies on environmental exposures.