Combining theory and wisdom in pragmatic,scenario-based decision support for sustainable development

Researchers have increasingly acknowledged the relative strength of ‘hybrid’ approaches to scenario analysis for exploring the futures of coupled human-nature systems. In this paper, we explain, demonstrate, and provisionally evaluate the usefulness of a simple analytical framework, based on five categories of capital assets, as part of a protocol for overcoming the conversion problem in hybrid scenario analysis. Based on a preliminary application of the framework to a case study in South Africa, we suggest that the five capitals framework has the potential to improve expedience and counter the bias against ‘soft’ drivers in hybrid approaches to scenario analysis. However, in light of the methodological trade-off between rigour and expedience, we suggest that future research needs to compare the available protocols for hybrid scenario analysis by weighing up the relative gain in scenario quality versus the relative cost of scenario construction.     

Integration of Case Studies on Global Change by Means of Qualitative Differential Equations

We present a novel methodology to integrate qualitative knowledge from different case studies on Global Change related issues into a single framework. The method is based on the concept of qualitative differential equations (QDEs) which represents a mathematically well-defined approach to investigate classes of ordinary differential equations (ODEs) used in conventional modeling exercises. These classes are defined by common qualitative features, e.g., monotonicity, signs, etc. Using the QSIM-algorithm it is possible to derive the set of possible solutions of all ODEs in the class. By this one can formulate a common, qualitatively specified cause–effect scheme valid for all case studies. The scheme is validated by testing it against the actually observed histories in the study regions with respect to their reconstruction by the corresponding QDE. The method is outlined theoretically and exemplary applied to the problem of land-use changes due to smallholder agriculture in developing countries. It is shown that the seven case-studies used can be described by a single cause–effect scheme which thus constitutes a pattern of Global Change. As a generally valid prerequisite for sustainability of this kind of land-use the presence of wage labor is shown to represent a decisive factor. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

Specificity of communication channels in four limacodid moths: Darna bradleyi, Darna trima, Setothosea asigna, and Setora nitens (Lepidoptera: Limacodidae)

Summary. Darna bradleyi Holloway, D. trima Moore, Setothosea asigna van Eecke and Setora nitens Walker are sympatric and coseasonal limacodid moths in plantations of oil palm, Elaeis guineensis Jacq. (Arecales: Palmae), in Borneo, southeast Asia. We tested the hypothesis that these four species maintain reproductive isolation through specificity in diel periods of communication, microlocation for communication and/or communication signal (pheromone). Studying diel periodicity of calling behavior by female moths and response by male moths to traps baited with virgin females or synthetic pheromone, we determined that sexual communication of D. bradleyi and D. trima took place from ˜17:30 to 18:45 hr and that of S. asigna and S. nitens from ˜18:45 to 20:00 hr and from ˜18:30 to 19:30 hr, respectively. Over 80% of male S. asigna and S. nitens were captured in pheromone-baited traps suspended >5 m high, whereas male D. bradleyi and D. trima were captured mostly in traps <5 m high. Synthetic pheromone baits attracted male moths in a species-specific manner. Moreover, baits containing both S. asigna and S. nitens pheromones failed to attract any male moths, indicating that female S. asigna and S. nitens, with overlapping communication periods, use bifunctional pheromone components that attract conspecific males while repelling heterospecifics. Similarly, addition of D. bradleyi pheromone to S. asigna or S. nitens pheromone reduced attraction of male S. asigna and S. nitens. The failure of D. bradleyi and D. trima, which overlap in time and microlocation for communication, to evolve bifunctional pheromones may be attributed to the recent occurrence of sympatry between D. bradleyi and D. trima in Borneo, apparently too recent for bifunctional pheromones to have evolved. We conclude that D. bradleyi, D. trima, S. asigna and S. nitens utilize any or all of diel periodicity, intra and interspecific effects of communication signal and/or microlocation for signaling, allowing these limacodids to co-inhabit the same habitat and remain reproductively isolated. Received 5 May 2000; accepted 18 August 2000     

Defense and avoidance of ozone under global change

The level II approach of the critical loads concept adopted by the UNECE aims at a flux based evaluation and takes into account environmental factors governing stomatal conductance. These factors will probably be affected by global change. The flux concept predicts that a decrease in stomatal conductance would protect trees from air pollution effects by decreasing uptake. However, experimental evidence is inconclusive. Numerous results suggest that pollutants and factors subject to global change (drought, CO(2)) may interact and even exacerbate effects, probably because antioxidative defense systems are involved in both, defense against pollutant effects and protection from natural stress. An effective pollutant dose, which is weighted by physiological defense capacity, would better predict such effects. In this review paper we argue that the flux-based approach is imperfect, because global change effects may also modify the physiological susceptibility to ozone. Instead, a flux concept weighted by defense capacity should be tested.     

Ozone stress and antioxidant substances in Trifolium repens and Centaurea jacea leaves

Ozone-sensitive (NC-S clone) and resistant plants (NC-R clone) of Trifolium repens and Centaurea jacea were exposed to moderate ozone concentrations in ambient air. The aim of this study was the investigation of the relation between ozone-sensitivity and leaf concentrations of antioxidants (ascorbic acid, total phenolics and total antioxidant capacity). NC-R clone showed the highest concentrations of antioxidants with 50-70% more ascorbic acid than NC-S. NC-R had about 5 times more ascorbic acid in the young leaves and 9 times more in the old leaves than Centaurea. In a fumigation experiment with acute ozone stress (100 nl L(-1)) the antioxidant levels changed profoundly. The ozone-injured leaves of NC-S had 6-8 times more total phenolics than uninjured leaves. Generally older leaves had lower antioxidant concentrations and were more prone to ozone injury than younger leaves. Ascorbic acid concentrations were closer related to the appearance of visible ozone injury than the other antioxidative parameters.     

Differential sorption behaviour of aromatic hydrocarbons on charcoals prepared at different temperatures from grass and wood

Naturally occurring charcoals are increasingly being recognized as effective sorbents for organic compounds. In this study we investigated the sorption of benzene and toluene in single-sorbate and bi-sorbate systems on different types of charcoals produced in laboratory, employing the batch sorption technique. Air dried plant materials from Phalaris grass (Phalaris tuberosa) and Red Gum wood (Eucalyptus camadulensis) were combusted under limited oxygen supply at 250 degrees C, 450 degrees C, and 850 degrees C. The resulting charcoals were characterized for their specific surface areas, total cation content, and pore size distributions (pore size distribution only for wood combusted at 450 degrees C and 850 degrees C). For the materials treated at 850 degrees C not only the surface area, microporosity, and total amount of sorbed sorbate increased markedly, but also the non-linearity of the sorption isotherm. The pore size distributions and surface areas as well as an indifferent sorption behaviour and competition effects for both sorbates indicated that pore filling mechanisms were the dominating processes governing the sorption on these microporous, high temperature treated materials. For the materials treated at lower temperatures the affinity of toluene was higher compared to that of benzene. In the bi-sorbate system the overall uptake of benzene increased. These phenomena might be due to the stronger hydrophobicity of toluene, and to a varying potential for swelling of the matrix and pore deformation by the two sorbates. The significantly lower sorption capacity of the Phalaris-derived material compared to the Red Gum charcoal correlated with its smaller surface area and higher cation content.     

The Arctic sea butterfly<Emphasis Type="Italic"> Limacina helicina</Emphasis>: lipids and life strategy

The sea butterfly Limacina helicina was collected from May to September 2001 in Kongsfjorden, Spitsbergen, to investigate population structure and body and lipid composition with regard to life cycle and reproductive strategy. Veligers and juveniles were only found in late autumn and spring, whereas females occurred from July to September. The size of the females increased until mid-August and decreased in September. Dry and lipid mass were closely related to size; dry mass increased exponentially and lipids linearly with size. The lipid content was highest in veligers (31.5% of dry mass) and juveniles (23.6%) but low in females (<10%). Phospholipids were the dominating lipid class followed by triacylglycerols. Females, veligers, and egg ribbons, all from September, were richest in phospholipids. Juveniles contained the highest amounts of triacylglycerols, whereas females had low levels in July and the beginning of August. In mid-August, levels of triacylglycerols were variable and higher. This suggests that females were in their main spawning period and the high variability in triacylglycerols points to different stages within the spawning cycle. Enhanced amounts of free fatty acids in females from July may be related to gonad development. The 16:1(n-7) fatty acid was more dominant in spring whereas 18:4(n-3) increased in summer and autumn, which reflects a change in diet from diatom-dominated food items in spring to dinoflagellates in summer/autumn. Small amounts of long-chain monounsaturated fatty acids suggest ingestion of copepods, and the fatty acid composition of veligers feeding on particulate matter. L. helicina has a one-year life cycle with peak spawning in August and over-winters as veligers that may grow to juveniles during the winter period. They metamorphose into juveniles during spring, develop to males in early summer, and mature into females in July and August.Communicated by M. Kühl, Helsingør     

Dissolved Oxygen and Nutrient Fluxes Across the Sediment–Water Interface of the Neckar River,Germany: In Situ Measurements and Simulations

A benthic in situ flume and a 1D biogeochemical sediment model to evaluate solute fluxes across the sediment–water interface have been developed. The flume was successfully used to determine oxygen and nutrient fluxes at various locations of the Neckar River in Germany. The experimental results were linked with vertical pore water concentration profiles and independently verified with the model. By combining experimental and model results we assessed the influence of dissolved oxygen concentrations in the water column and the availability of degradable organic matter on sediment oxygen demand. The results and the derived relations can be used to parameterize the sediment module of large scale water quality models, allowing one to assess the influence of sediment–water interactions on various aspects of river water quality. Moreover, the biogeochemical sediment model can help to improve the general understanding of the processes governing solute concentrations and fluxes in sediments and across their interfaces.     

Forage and rangeland plants from uranium mine soils: long-term hazard to herbivores and livestock?

Metalliferous uranium mine overburden soils integrated into arable land or stabilized by perennial rangeland plants evoke concern about the quality of crops and the exposure of grazing and thereby soil-ingesting (wildlife) herbivores to heavy metals (HM) and radionuclides. In a 2-year trial, thirteen annual and perennial forage and rangeland plants were thus potted on, or taken from, cultivated field soil of a metalliferous hot spot near Ronneburg (Germany). The content of soil and shoot tissues in 20 minerals was determined by ICP-MS to estimate HM (and uranium) toxicities to grazing animals and the plants themselves, and to calculate the long-term persistence of the metal toxicants (soil clean-up times) from the annual uptake rates of the plants. On Ronneburg soil elevated in As, Cd, Cu, Mn, Pb, U, and Zn, the shoot mineral content of all test plants remained preferentially in the range of “normal plant concentrations” but reached up to the fourfold to sixfold in Mn, Ni, and Zn, the 1.45- to 21.5-fold of the forage legislative limit in Cd, and the 10- to 180-fold of common herb concentrations in U. Shoot and the calculated root concentrations in Cd, Cu, Ni, and Zn accounted for phytotoxic effects at least to grasses and cereals. Based on WHO PTWI values for the tolerable weekly human Cd and Pb intake, the expanded Cd and Pb limits for forage, and reported rates of hay, roots, and adhering-soil ingestion, the tolerable daily intake rates of 0.65/11.6 mg in Cd/Pb by a 65 kg herbivore would be surpassed by the 11- to 27/0.7- to 4.7-fold across the year, with drastic consequences for winter-grazing and thereby high rates of roots and soil-ingesting animals. The daily intake of 5.3–31.5 mg of the alpha radiation emitter, U, may be less disastrous to short-lived herbivores. The annual phytoextraction rates of critical HM by the tested excluder crops indicate that hundreds to thousands of years are necessary to halve the HM and (long-lived) radionuclide load of Ronneburg soil, provided the herbage is harvested at all. It is concluded that the content in Cd/As, Cd, and Cu exclude herbage/Ronneburg soil from the commercial use as forage or pasture land soil for incalculable time spans. Caution is required, too, with the consumption of game.