Assessing environmentally significant effects: a better strength-of-evidence than a single P value?

Interpreting a P value from a traditional nil hypothesis test as a strength-of-evidence for the existence of an environmentally important difference between two populations of continuous variables (e.g. a chemical concentration) has become commonplace. Yet, there is substantial literature, in many disciplines, that faults this practice. In particular, the hypothesis tested is virtually guaranteed to be false, with the result that P depends far too heavily on the number of samples collected (the ‘sample size’). The end result is a swinging burden-of-proof (permissive at low sample size but precautionary at large sample size). We propose that these tests be reinterpreted as direction detectors (as has been proposed by others, starting from 1960) and that the test’s procedure be performed simultaneously with two types of equivalence tests (one testing that the difference that does exist is contained within an interval of indifference, the other testing that it is beyond that interval—also known as bioequivalence testing). This gives rise to a strength-of-evidence procedure that lends itself to a simple confidence interval interpretation. It is accompanied by a strength-of-evidence matrix that has many desirable features: not only a strong/moderate/dubious/weak categorisation of the results, but also recommendations about the desirability of collecting further data to strengthen findings.     

Making neighborhoods safer: Examining predictors of residents’ concerns about neighborhood safety

This study examined what factors best predict residents’ concerns about neighborhood safety. One-hundred and twenty-two participants were selected from a large, Midwestern metropolitan area. All participants lived in high crime areas. Participants completed a 22-item questionnaire that assessed their perceptions of neighborhood safety and vigilance. These items were clustered as: 1) Community care and vigilance, 2) neighborhood safety concerns, 3) physical incivilities, and 4) social incivilities. Police crime data were also used in the analyses. Our findings suggest that aspects of the broken window theory, collective efficacy, and place attachments/territoriality play a role in affecting residents’ concerns about neighborhood safety.     

Participation, Process Quality, and Performance of Marine Protected Areas in the Wider Caribbean

Throughout the wider Caribbean, marine protected areas (MPAs) are rapidly gaining momentum as a conservation tool, but management performance of existing MPAs is considered low. To enhance MPA management performance, stakeholders are increasingly being invited to discuss, debate, and develop rules about how people should interact with marine ecosystems. Using social and ecological data from a rapid assessment of 31 MPAs and their associated communities in the wider Caribbean, this study investigates stakeholder participation in MPA planning and management, and how participants' views of process quality relate to MPA performance. Findings indicate that (1) participants tended to be male, resource users, participate in community organizations, and have lived fewer years in the community associated with an MPA than non-participants; (2) simply participating was not associated with perceptions of the social and ecological performance of MPAs, however, perceptions of process quality were positively related to views of performance; and (3) resource users' perceptions of an MPA's ecological performance were likely shaped by a variety of factors. Conservation practitioners should be aware that participatory MPA processes are complex and require careful planning if they are to contribute positively to marine conservation efforts.     

Effects of economic growth on biodiversity in the United States

For many citizens and policymakers, the empirical relationship between economic growth and biodiversity conservation has not been sufficiently established for purposes of identifying the types of economic policies amenable to biodiversity conservation. Some think economic growth conflicts with biodiversity conservation; others think economic growth conduces biodiversity conservation. With panel data from 1997‐2011, encompassing US continental states, we developed a series of statistical models to investigate the relationships among species endangerment, human population, and economic growth as indicated by GDP and per capita GDP. Species endangerment is highly correlated with population and GDP, and per capita GDP is a significant regressor of species endangerment. Across US continental states, competitive exclusion of non‐human species occurs via human economic growth and population growth.     

Comparison of Stream Invertebrate Response Models for Bioassessment Metrics1

Waite, Ian R., Jonathan G. Kennen, Jason T. May, Larry R. Brown, Thomas F. Cuffney, Kimberly A. Jones, and James L. Orlando, 2012. Comparison of Stream Invertebrate Response Models for Bioassessment Metrics. Journal of the American Water Resources Association (JAWRA) 48(3): 570-583. DOI: 10.1111/j.1752-1688.2011.00632.x Abstract: We aggregated invertebrate data from various sources to assemble data for modeling in two ecoregions in Oregon and one in California. Our goal was to compare the performance of models developed using multiple linear regression (MLR) techniques with models developed using three relatively new techniques: classification and regression trees (CART), random forest (RF), and boosted regression trees (BRT). We used tolerance of taxa based on richness (RICHTOL) and ratio of observed to expected taxa (O/E) as response variables and land use/land cover as explanatory variables. Responses were generally linear; therefore, there was little improvement to the MLR models when compared to models using CART and RF. In general, the four modeling techniques (MLR, CART, RF, and BRT) consistently selected the same primary explanatory variables for each region. However, results from the BRT models showed significant improvement over the MLR models for each region; increases in R² from 0.09 to 0.20. The O/E metric that was derived from models specifically calibrated for Oregon consistently had lower R² values than RICHTOL for the two regions tested. Modeled O/E R² values were between 0.06 and 0.10 lower for each of the four modeling methods applied in the Willamette Valley and were between 0.19 and 0.36 points lower for the Blue Mountains. As a result, BRT models may indeed represent a good alternative to MLR for modeling species distribution relative to environmental variables.     

Evaluation of give kids a boost: A school-based program to increase booster seat use among urban children in economically disadvantaged areas

Objective: This study evaluated the effectiveness of a series of 1-year multifaceted school-based programs aimed at increasing booster seat use among urban children 4–7 years of age in economically disadvantaged areas.

Methods: During 4 consecutive school years, 2011–2015, the Give Kids a Boost (GKB) program was implemented in a total of 8 schools with similar demographics in Dallas County. Observational surveys were conducted at project schools before project implementation (P₀), 1–4 weeks after the completion of project implementation (P₁), and 4–5 months later (P₂). Changes in booster seat use for the 3 time periods were compared for the 8 project and 14 comparison schools that received no intervention using a nonrandomized trial process.

The intervention included (1) train-the-trainer sessions with teachers and parents; (2) presentations about booster seat safety; (3) tailored communication to parents; (4) distribution of fact sheets/resources; (5) walk-around education; and (6) booster seat inspections.

The association between the GKB intervention and proper booster seat use was determined initially using univariate analysis. The association was also estimated using a generalized linear mixed model predicting a binomial outcome (booster seat use) for those aged 4 to 7 years, adjusted for child-level variables (age, sex, race/ethnicity) and car-level variables (vehicle type). The model incorporated the effects of clustering by site and by collection date to account for the possibility of repeated sampling.

Results: In the 8 project schools, booster seat use for children 4–7 years of age increased an average of 20.9 percentage points between P₀ and P₁ (P₀ = 4.8%, P₁ = 25.7%; odds ratio [OR] = 6.9; 95% confidence interval [CI], 5.5, 8.7; P < .001) and remained at that level in the P₂ time period (P₂ = 25.7%; P < .001, for P₀ vs. P₂) in the univariate analysis. The 14 comparison schools had minimal change in booster seat use. The multivariable model showed that children at the project schools were significantly more likely to be properly restrained in a booster seat after the intervention (OR = 2.7; 95% CI, 2.2, 3.3) compared to the P₀ time period and compared to the comparison schools.

Conclusion: Despite study limitations, the GKB program was positively associated with an increase in proper booster seat use for children 4–7 years of age in school settings among diverse populations in economically disadvantaged areas. These increases persisted into the following school year in a majority of the project schools. The GKB model may be a replicable strategy to increase booster seat use among school-age children in similar urban settings.     

Effects of alcohol at 0.05% blood alcohol concentration (BAC) on low speed urban driving

ABSTRACT

Objective: Alcohol-impaired driving presents a continued risk for traffic safety and results in a significant proportion of fatalities on the roadway. We examined how alcohol at a 0.05% blood alcohol concentration (BAC) compares to 0.10% BAC (above the current U.S. legal limit) in terms of impact on driving performance.

Methods: Utilizing a within-subjects design, we recruited 108 healthy experienced drivers who were moderate to heavy drinkers. In a double-blind, placebo-controlled crossover design, we administered placebo and alcohol at the 0.05% and 0.10% BAC levels in a standardized simulated driving protocol. Drives occurred on the descending limb of the blood alcohol curve. This analysis focuses on the urban portion of the drive

Results: The study observed clear differences in performance for lateral and longitudinal driving performance and glance behavior. Variability in lane keeping and average speed increased with BAC level, with degraded performance observed at 0.05% BAC. The frequency of lane departures and percentage of time focused on the forward roadway at 0.05% BAC did not differ from placebo but differed from the 0.10% BAC level.

Conclusions: Overall, our results show that there is degraded performance in the urban driving environment and that much of that begins at or below the 0.05% BAC level.     

Variation in immune function, body condition, and feather corticosterone in nestling Tree Swallows (Tachycineta bicolor) on reclaimed wetlands in the Athabasca oil sands, Alberta, Canada

In the Athabasca oil sands region of northern Alberta, mining companies are evaluating reclamation using constructed wetlands for integration of tailings. From May to July 2008, reproductive performance of 40 breeding pairs of tree swallows (Tachycineta bicolor), plus growth and survival of nestlings, was measured on three reclaimed wetlands on two oil sands leases. A subset of nestlings was examined for i) feather corticosterone levels, ii) delayed-type hypersensitivity response, and iii) innate immune function. Nestlings on one of two wetlands created with oil sands process affected material (OSPM) were heavier and had greater wing-lengths, and mounted a stronger delayed-type hypersensitivity response compared those on the reference wetland. Corticosterone was significantly higher in male nestlings on one of two OSPM-containing wetland compared to the reference wetland. Body condition of 12-day-old female nestlings was inversely related to feather corticosterone. Under ideal weather conditions, reclaimed wetlands can support healthy populations of aerially-insectivorous birds.     

Ferrate(VI) enhanced photocatalytic oxidation of pollutants in aqueous TiO<Subscript>2</Subscript> suspensions

Background, aim and scope  

Photocatalytic oxidation using UV irradiation of TiO₂ has been studied extensively and has many potential industrial applications, including the degradation of recalcitrant contaminants in water and wastewater treatment. A limiting factor in the oxidation process is the recombination of conduction band electrons (e ⁻ _cb) with electron holes (h_vb⁺) on the irradiated TiO₂ surface; thus, in aqueous conditions, the presence of an effective electron scavenger will be beneficial to the efficiency of the oxidation process. Ferrate (FeO₄²⁻) has received much recent attention as a water treatment chemical since it behaves simultaneously as an oxidant and coagulant. The combination of ferrate [Fe(VI)] with UV/TiO₂ photocatalysis offers an oxidation synergism arising from the Fe(VI) scavenging of e ⁻ _cb and the corresponding beneficial formation of Fe(V) from the Fe(VI) reduction. This paper reviews recent studies concerning the photocatalytic oxidation of problematic pollutants with and without ferrate.     

Use of CALPUFF for exposure assessment in a near-field,complex terrain setting

CALPUFF is an atmospheric source-receptor model recommended by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency for use on a case-by-case basis in complex terrain and wind conditions. The ability of the model to provide useful information for exposure assessments in areas with those topographical and meteorological conditions has received little attention. This is an important knowledge gap for use of CALPUFF outside of regulatory applications, such as exposure analyses conducted in support of risk assessments and health studies. We compared deposition of cadmium (Cd), lead (Pb), and zinc (Zn) calculated with CALPUFF as a result of emissions from a zinc smelter with corresponding concentrations of the metals measured in attic dust and soil samples obtained from the surrounding area. On a point-by-point analysis, predictions from CALPUFF explained 11% (lead) to 53% (zinc) of the variability in concentrations measured in attic dust. Levels of heavy metals in soil interpolated to 100 residential addresses from the distribution of concentrations measured in soil samples also agreed well with deposition predicted with CALPUFF: R² of 0.46, 0.76, and 079 for Pb, Cd, and Zn, respectively. Community-average concentrations of Cd, Pb, and Zn measured in soil were significantly (p < 0.0001) and strongly correlated (R² ranged from 0.77 to 0.98) with predicted deposition rates. These findings demonstrate that CALPUFF can provide reasonably accurate predictions of the patterns of long-term air pollutant deposition in the near-field associated with emissions from a discrete source in complex terrain. Because deposition estimates are calculated as a linear function of air concentrations, CALPUFF is expected to be reliable model for prediction of long-term average, near-field ambient air concentrations in complex terrain as well.