A WATER POLICY-LAND USE COMPUTER SIMULATION MODEL1

ABSTRACT: This paper describes the philosophy, algorithms, and implementation of a computer-oriented land use forecasting-water policy simulation model. The model is applicable to SMSA's organized on a census tract basis by counties. The forecasts are macro to the census tract level for industrial, residential, commercial and public land uses, and are dynamically altered by hypothesized water management policies. Modeling is based on an economic data base of the region, and is extremely flexible for the user. An example set of simulations is included for illustrative purposes.     

Nitrogen-fixation by cyanobacteria associated withCodium fragile (Chlorophyta): Environmental effects and transfer of fixed nitrogen

N₂-fixation associated with the green macroalgaCodium fragile subsp.tomentosoides (van Goor) Silva from Long Island, New York, USA, was attributable to several species of endophytic cyanobacteria. Rates of N₂-fixation ranged from 0.03 to 3.2µg N g^–1 dry wt h^–1 in freshly collected plants from several sites. Growth of the cyanobacteria appeared to be light-limited, due to the transmission of only 5 to 10% of incident light through the pigmented surface-layer of the macroalga. Daily irradiance was the most important factor determining both abundance of cyanobacterial cells and rate of N₂-fixation. The rate was also affected by instantaneous irradiance, and increased twofold from dark to ambient surface irradiance. Rates were reduced at low temperature (8°C) but showed no temperature effect between 12° and 26°C. External concentrations of dissolved inorganic nitrogen (DIN) up to 20µM did not influence N₂-fixation rate, but long-term exposure to 60µmol l^–1 d^–1 of NH ₄ ⁺ caused a reduction in the rate. InC. fragile grown under high daily irradiance and low external DIN concentration, ~50% of the assimilated-N was attributable to N₂-fixation. However, chlorophyllb extracted from plants grown with¹⁵N₂ showed an atom % excess¹⁵N of less than 0.1, suggesting that only a small proportion of the bacterially fixed-N was transferred to the seaweed. The association betweenC. fragile and its endophytic cyanobacteria appears to be based primarily on microhabitat suitability, rather than mutual metabolic dependence. It is doubtful that N₂-fixation by cyanobacteria is important to the ecological success of this seaweed species.     

Persistent organochlorines in beluga whales (Delphinapterus leucas) from the St Lawrence River estuary--I. Concentrations and patterns of specific PCBs, chlorinated pesticides and polychlorinated dibenzo-p-dioxins and dibenzofurans

Blubber samples from beluga whales (Delphinapterus leucas) in the St Lawrence River estuary were analysed for PCB congeners (ortho- and non-ortho-substituted) and other persistent organochlorines as well as chlorinated dibenzo-dioxins/furans (PCDD/Fs). Major individual components (mean concentrations > 1 microg g(-1)) were 4,4'-DDE, -DDD and -DDT, T12 (a toxaphene-related compound), trans-nonachlor, oxychlordane, mirex, HCB, tris(p-chlorophenyl) methane and dieldrin. Concentrations of SigmaPCBs (8.3-412 microg g(-1)), SigmaDDT (3.36-389 microg g(-1)) and mirex (0.18-6.8 microg g(-1)) were particularly elevated relative to other odontocetes in Canadian waters. SigmaDDT, PCBs (as Aroclor), mirex and T12 concentrations were positively correlated with age of adult females (> 10 years) but only weakly, or not significantly, correlated with age of adult males. PCDD/Fs were present at low ng kg(-1) levels and consisted mainly of penta- and hexachlorofurans, and hepta- and octachlorodioxin. CB126 (3,3',4,4',5-PCB) was the most prominent non-ortho-substituted PCB congener in beluga blubber. Total TCDD toxic equivalents averaged 330 ng kg(-1) in females and 1400 ng kg(-1) in males and were dominated by CB126, and the mono-ortho-substituted congeners CB105 and CB118. Biomagnification factors (BMFs) for mirex and SigmaPCB from fish to beluga ranged from 11 to 16, and were similar to BMFs in Arctic animals, indicating that elevated levels in St Lawrence animals are a consequence of relatively high levels of recalcitrant organochlorines in prey of the beluga in the St Lawrence river system.     

Sustainable watershed management: an international multi-watershed case study

Global freshwater resources are being increasingly polluted and depleted, threatening sustainable development and human and ecosystem health. Utilizing case studies from 4 different watersheds in the United States, Japan, Switzerland, and Brazil, this paper identifies the most relevant sustainability deficits and derives general vectors for more sustainable water management. As a consequence of the demographic and economic developments experienced in the last few decades, each watershed has suffered declines in water quality, streamflow and biotic resources. However, the extent and the cultural perception of these water-related problems vary substantially in the different watersheds, leading to specific water-management strategies. In industrialized countries, exemplified by the US, Switzerland, and Japan, these strategies have primarily consisted of finance- and energy-intensive technologies, allowing these countries to meet water requirements while minimizing human health risks. But, from a sustainability point of view, such strategies, relying on limited natural resources, are not long-term solutions. For newly industrialized countries such as Brazil, expensive technologies for water management are often not economically feasible, thus limiting the extent to which newly industrialized and developing countries can utilize the expertise offered by the industrialized world. Sustainable water management has to be achieved by a common learning process involving industrialized, newly industrialized, and developing countries, following general sustainability guidelines as exemplified in this paper.     

Agroforestry buffers for nonpoint source pollution reductions from agricultural watersheds

Despite increased attention and demand for the adoption of agroforestry practices throughout the world, rigorous long-term scientific studies confirming environmental benefits from the use of agroforestry practices are limited. The objective was to examine nonpoint-source pollution (NPSP) reduction as influenced by agroforestry buffers in watersheds under grazing and row crop management. The grazing study consists of six watersheds in the Central Mississippi Valley wooded slopes and the row crop study site consists of three watersheds in a paired watershed design in Central Claypan areas. Runoff water samples were analyzed for sediment, total nitrogen (TN), and total phosphorus (TP) for the 2004 to 2008 period. Results indicate that agroforestry and grass buffers on grazed and row crop management sites significantly reduce runoff, sediment, TN, and TP losses to streams. Buffers in association with grazing and row crop management reduced runoff by 49 and 19%, respectively, during the study period as compared with respective control treatments. Average sediment loss for grazing and row crop management systems was 13.8 and 17.9 kg ha yr, respectively. On average, grass and agroforestry buffers reduced sediment, TN, and TP losses by 32, 42, and 46% compared with the control treatments. Buffers were more effective in the grazing management practice than row crop management practice. These differences could in part be attributed to the differences in soils, management, and landscape features. Results from this study strongly indicate that agroforestry and grass buffers can be designed to improve water quality while minimizing the amount of land taken out of production.     

Adaptive management in the U.S. National Wildlife Refuge System: science-management partnerships for conservation delivery

Adaptive management is an approach to recurrent decision making in which uncertainty about the decision is reduced over time through comparison of outcomes predicted by competing models against observed values of those outcomes. The National Wildlife Refuge System (NWRS) of the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service is a large land management program charged with making natural resource management decisions, which often are made under considerable uncertainty, severe operational constraints, and conditions that limit ability to precisely carry out actions as intended. The NWRS presents outstanding opportunities for the application of adaptive management, but also difficult challenges. We describe two cooperative programs between the Fish and Wildlife Service and the U.S. Geological Survey to implement adaptive management at scales ranging from small, single refuge applications to large, multi-refuge, multi-region projects. Our experience to date suggests three important attributes common to successful implementation: a vigorous multi-partner collaboration, practical and informative decision framework components, and a sustained commitment to the process. Administrators in both agencies should consider these attributes when developing programs to promote the use and acceptance of adaptive management in the NWRS.