Environmental issue area and game theory

The impact of international cultural, political, social, military, scientific, environmental and economic events has never been more vividly felt than today and the ‘challenge of global change’ has been created. Today there are many pressing regional and global problems. The planet is under stress and so are various scientific paradigms. To solve the new problems, international multilateral action is needed and increasingly sought. Mutual and not sporadic cooperation is the most prudent policy, the most effective means to attain set environmental goals such as clean air, clean water and clean soil. As to cooperation, national actions taken by state authorities cannot abolish any of these problems, but regional or preferably global, international multilateral action must be taken to meet the new demands. Responsibility for future generations is the key. Which is preferred: growth at any cost with widespread ecological destruction or sustainable development with cleaner water, air and environment? What is prudent policy? Cooperation or competition? Do we need long-term planning instead of short-term planning and gains? These are the key questions which this paper seeks to answer.     

Documenting lemming population change in the Arctic: Can we detect trends?

Lemmings are a key component of tundra food webs and changes in their dynamics can affect the whole ecosystem. We present a comprehensive overview of lemming monitoring and research activities, and assess recent trends in lemming abundance across the circumpolar Arctic. Since 2000, lemmings have been monitored at 49 sites of which 38 are still active. The sites were not evenly distributed with notably Russia and high Arctic Canada underrepresented. Abundance was monitored at all sites, but methods and levels of precision varied greatly. Other important attributes such as health, genetic diversity and potential drivers of population change, were often not monitored. There was no evidence that lemming populations were decreasing in general, although a negative trend was detected for low arctic populations sympatric with voles. To keep the pace of arctic change, we recommend maintaining long-term programmes while harmonizing methods, improving spatial coverage and integrating an ecosystem perspective.     

Climate Warming and Pikeperch Year-Class Catches in the Baltic Sea

Climate change scenarios concerning the Baltic Sea predict increase in surface water temperatures. Pikeperch (Sander lucioperca (L.)) inhabits the coastal areas of the northern Baltic Sea and is an important fish species for the Finnish fisheries. The year-class strength of pikeperch varies strongly between years and significantly depends on water temperature. We aimed to study the effects of changing temperature conditions on pikeperch fisheries and distribution based on commercial catch data from the period 1980–2008 in the Finnish coastal areas of the Baltic Sea. The results indicated that warmer summers will produce stronger pikeperch year-classes that consequently contribute significantly to the future catches. The average temperature in June–July explained 40% of the variation in the year-class catches in the Gulf of Finland and 73% in July–August in the Archipelago Sea. During the study period, the distribution of pikeperch catches expanded toward north along the coasts of the Bothnian Sea.     

Global energy and emissions scenarios for effective climate change mitigation—Deterministic and stochastic scenarios with the TIAM model

The achievement possibilities of the EU 2 °C climate target have been assessed with the ETSAP TIAM global energy systems model. Cost-effective global and regional mitigation scenarios of carbon dioxide, methane, nitrous oxide and F-gases were calculated with alternative assumptions on emissions trading. In the mitigation scenarios, an 85% reduction in CO₂ emissions is needed from the baseline, and very significant changes in the energy system towards emission-free sources take place during this century. The largest new technology groups are carbon-capture and storage (CCS), nuclear power, wind power, advanced bioenergy technologies and energy efficiency measures. CCS technologies contributed a 5.5-Pg CO₂ annual emission reduction by 2050 and 12 Pg CO₂ reduction by 2100. Also large-scale forestation measures were found cost-efficient. Forestation measures reached their maximum impact of 7.7 Pg CO₂ annual emission reduction in 2080. The effects of uncertainties in the climate sensitivity have been analysed with stochastic scenarios.     

Occupational risk identification using hand-held or laptop computers.

This paper describes the Work Environment Profile (WEP) program and its use in risk identification by computer. It is installed into a hand-held computer or a laptop to be used in risk identification during work site visits. A 5-category system is used to describe the identified risks in 7 groups, i.e., accidents, biological and physical hazards, ergonomic and psychosocial load, chemicals, and information technology hazards. Each group contains several qualifying factors. These 5 categories are colour-coded at this stage to aid with visualization. Risk identification produces visual summary images the interpretation of which is facilitated by colours. The WEP program is a tool for risk assessment which is easy to learn and to use both by experts and nonprofessionals. It is especially well adapted to be used both in small and in larger enterprises. Considerable time is saved as no paper notes are needed.     

Searching efficient protection strategies for the eutrophied Gulf of Finland: the combined use of 1D and 3D modeling in assessing long-term state scenarios with high spatial resolution

An experiment combining the use of two ecosystem models was conducted to search for effective protection strategies for the Gulf of Finland (Baltic Sea). Reference and scenario simulations were first run with a one-dimensional (1D) model for seven main basins of the entire Baltic Sea until steady state was achieved. The obtained basinwise distributions of inorganic nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P), as well as sediment labile P, were then used to initiate 5-y simulations with a three-dimensional (3D) ecosystem model. The results suggest that relatively small local load reductions (the "Finland" scenario) would improve only the state of adjacent coastal waters significantly. This would be the case, even for runs covering several decades, which clearly exceed the residence times of nutrients in the Gulf of Finland. A significant decrease from a substantial loading source to the Gulf (the "St. Petersburg" scenario) would decrease cyanobacterial biomasses in the entire Gulf of Finland and also immediately outside it. A reduction in the current Polish nutrient loads would improve the situation in the whole Baltic Proper and cause an extensive decline in cyanobacterial biomasses in the Gulf of Finland, as well. However, it would take several decades until the improvement caused by reducing loads in the "Poland" scenario is seen, while in the "St. Petersburg" scenario the corresponding time lag would only be a few years. Our results suggest that the common water protection policy in the Baltic Sea region should have the largest nutrient sources as its primary target, regardless of their location and country.     

In-car cell phone use and hazards following hands free legislation

OBJECTIVE: A new law took effect in Finland at the beginning of 2003 which prohibits the handheld use of mobile phones while driving a motor vehicle. The purpose of this study was to assess the impact of the law on phone usage and self-reported safety during the first few months and 16 months later to determine whether the initial level of compliance with the law had been sustained. METHODS: Data were collected by Gallup home poll before (spring 2002) and after legislation took effect (spring 2003 and 2004). A representative sample of drivers who owned a cell phone (n = 836 to 966) was interviewed each time. On-road observations were also collected in four cities for 2003 and 2004. RESULTS: Just after the law, 97% of drivers were aware of the new hands free legislation. In sharp contrast to the pre-law rate of 16%, 43% reported not using the phone while driving immediately after the law and 41% one year later. The occasional users especially reduced their use of phones while driving. The law was correlated to reductions in self-reported handheld use of cell phones while driving, from 55.6% pre-law to 15.2% immediately after passage. In spite of this change, however, the hands free legislation did not reduce self-reported involvement of Finnish drivers in phone-related hazards. Handheld usage was still lower in 2004 than pre-law (20.0%), but the 32% increase from 2003 was significant. Observational data collected in Finland in 2003 and 2004 showed an even higher upward trend in handheld use (87% increase, from 3.1% to 5.8%; pre-law data were not available), and matched a similar increase reported by McCartt and Geary (2004) in their observational evaluation of New York's handheld mobile phone law. CONCLUSION: The self-reports indicate that the hands-free law reduced handheld phone use, among occasional users especially, but did not reduce phone-related hazards. The effect of the law on phone use substantially declined within one year.     

Effects of ash application on cadmium concentration in small mammals

In order to assess the effects of wood ash application to forests on small mammals, we collected bank voles (Clethrionomys glareolus) and common shrews (Sorex araneus) from a forest area in southern Finland. Part of the sample population was from sites that had been treated with ash 1.5 years earlier, part from untreated control sites. The ash increased the soil pH and gave an average cadmium load in soil of 44 g ha(-1). When comparing treated and control areas, we found slightly but significantly lower Cd concentrations in vole muscle, liver, and kidney from treated plots, whereas the Cd concentrations in shrew tissues were greater in animals from treated plots. In voles we detected an increase in Cd concentrations during the 45-d sampling period in treated and untreated plots. The relative weight of kidneys was greater from the ash-treated areas than untreated areas for both voles and shrews. The difference in Cd concentrations between the voles and shrews could be explained by the different food habits.     

Occupational Risk Identification Using Hand-Held or Laptop Computers

This paper describes the Work Environment Profile (WEP) program and its use in risk identification by computer. It is installed into a hand-held computer or a laptop to be used in risk identification during work site visits. A 5-category system is used to describe the identified risks in 7 groups, i.e., accidents, biological and physical hazards, ergonomic and psychosocial load, chemicals, and information technology hazards. Each group contains several qualifying factors. These 5 categories are colour-coded at this stage to aid with visualization. Risk identification produces visual summary images the interpretation of which is facilitated by colours. The WEP program is a tool for risk assessment which is easy to learn and to use both by experts and nonprofessionals. It is especially well adapted to be used both in small and in larger enterprises. Considerable time is saved as no paper notes are needed.     

Global warming potential factors and warming payback time as climate indicators of forest biomass use

A method is presented for estimating the global warming impact of forest biomass life cycles with respect to their functionally equivalent alternatives based on fossil fuels and non-renewable material sources. In the method, absolute global warming potentials (AGWP) of both the temporary carbon (C) debt of forest biomass stock and the C credit of the biomass use cycle displacing the fossil and non-renewable alternative are estimated as a function of the time frame of climate change mitigation. Dimensionless global warming potential (GWP) factors, GWP_bio and GWP_biouse, are derived. As numerical examples, 1) bioenergy from boreal forest harvest residues to displace fossil fuels and 2) the use of wood for material substitution are considered. The GWP-based indicator leads to longer payback times, i.e. the time frame needed for the biomass option to be superior to its fossil-based alternative, than when just the cumulative balance of biogenic and fossil C stocks is considered. The warming payback time increases substantially with the residue diameter and low displacement factor (DF) of fossil C emissions. For the 35-cm stumps, the payback time appears to be more than 100 years in the climate conditions of Southern Finland when DF is lower than 0.5 in instant use and lower than 0.6 in continuous stump use. Wood use for construction appears to be more beneficial because, in addition to displaced emissions due to by-product bioenergy and material substitution, a significant part of round wood is sequestered into wood products for a long period, and even a zero payback time would be attainable with reasonable DFs.