An outlook on Dutch road safety in 2020; future developments of exposure,crashes and policy

This paper discusses the method used for an outlook on road safety in the Netherlands until 2020. The objectives of the outlook are to judge the feasibility of the Dutch road safety policy targets and to estimate the effects in 2020 of new measures. The outlook consists of baseline forecasts assuming the unchanged continuation of the effect of current road safety policy as a starting point, and the effect of new measures on top of that. We used four different mobility scenarios, derived from a comprehensive study about the macro-economic development of Dutch society until 2040. In the mobility scenario with the largest growth it appeared doubtful whether the policy targets of that time for the maximum number of fatalities in 2020 (580) can be achieved. An extensive inventory of new measures after 2010 produced five already intended new measures, the effects of which were estimated. The results show that the target of maximum 580 fatalities in 2020 can probably be met. The recently adjusted policy target of 500 fatalities in 2020 is also feasible if additional new measures are taken.     

Determining patterns of variability in ecological communities: time lag analysis revisited

All ecological communities experience change over time. One method to quantify temporal variation in the patterns of relative abundance of communities is time lag analysis (TLA). It uses a distance-based approach to study temporal community dynamics by regressing community dissimilarity over increasing time lags (one-unit lags, two-unit lags, three-unit lags). Here, we suggest some modifications to the method and revaluate its potential for detecting patterns of community change. We apply Hellinger distance based TLA to artificial data simulating communities with different levels of directional and stochastic dynamics and analyse their effects on the slope and its statistical significance. We conclude that statistical significance of the TLA slope (obtained by a Monte Carlo permutation procedure) is a valid criterion to discriminate between (i) communities with directional change in species composition, regardless whether it is caused by directional abundance change of the species or by stochastic change according to a Markov process, and (ii) communities that are composed of species with population sizes oscillating around a constant mean or communities whose species abundances are governed by a white noise process. TLA slopes range between 0.02 and 0.25, depending on the proportions of species with different dynamics; higher proportions of species with constant means imply shallower slopes; and higher proportions of species with stochastic dynamics or directional change imply steeper slopes. These values are broadly in line with TLA slopes from real world data. Caution must be exercised when TLA is used for the comparison of community time series with different lengths since the slope depends on time series length and tends to decrease non-linearly with it.     

Physical Effects of New Devices for Bricklayers

Bricklaying is a physically demanding job. Bricklayers frequently flex their trunk to pick up bricks and mortar and position these in a wall. The experienced workload is highest working with bricks at 0 to 50 cm from the floor. In this study the effects of 2 devices that have proven to be feasible in practice are evaluated.

The 50 cm raise due to the 2 devices is experienced as comfortable, the estimated lumbar compression force was reduced, and observations indicate likewise. It is discussed that the field experiments have many drawbacks. Nevertheless, based on this study in combination with other literature the improvements could be recommended.     

Two-phase jet releases,droplet dispersion and rainout,II. Rainout experiments

This paper describes the results of the first experimental stage of Phase IV of a Joint Industry Project (JIP) on liquid jets and two-phase droplet dispersion. The objective of this stage of the JIP was to generate experimental rainout data for non-flashing water and xylene experiments. See the overview companion paper I for a wider overview of the problem, model implementation and associated model validation.A range of orifice sizes (2.5 and 5 mm) and stagnation pressures (4–16 barg) were applied. Measurements included flow rate, initial droplet size, plume concentrations/temperatures for a range of downstream locations, and distributed rainout.Instead of the Phase Doppler Anemometry method used for droplet size measurements earlier in the JIP, a photographic technique was applied in an attempt to include measurement of the larger (non-spherical) droplets. This enabled a more accurate evaluation of the initial droplet size distribution and a much clearer understanding of the droplet morphology. The results showed that the droplet behaviour in the jet is more complex than had been anticipated with the mass distribution dominated by a very small number of large non-spherical droplets. Consequently a large number of spray images were required to evaluate an accurate size distribution.Distributed rainout was measured by weighing the amount of rainout in trays positioned along the jet direction. The rainout results showed a good degree of repeatability and internal consistency. They indicated that an increasing proportion of the released material did not rainout for increasing pressure. Rainout distance also increased with increasing pressure. Evaporation of the liquid was confirmed by temperature measurements, which showed the effect of evaporative cooling.Xylene concentration measurements (up to 1%) were carried out using a direct reading photoionization detector calibrated for xylene (measuring vapour only). For a limited dataset, the accuracy of these measurements was estimated by means of comparison against an alternative more time-consuming concentration method (xylene absorption onto a charcoal filter; measuring both vapour and liquid). The concentration measurements displayed several consistent qualitative features. For example, at a given downstream distance, the peak concentration increases with increasing pressure and nozzle diameter and the vertical height at which the peak is achieved increases. The cross-stream profiles displayed a consistent tendency to increased concentration at the edge of the jet, and the reason for this has not been established.Finally recommendations are provided for potential future work.     

Analysis of underlying causes of investigated loss of containment incidents in Dutch Seveso plants using the Storybuilder method

In the Netherlands there are around 400 “Seveso” sites that fall under the Dutch Major Hazards Decree (BRZO) 1999. Between 2006 and 2010 the Dutch Labour Inspectorate's Directorate for Major Hazard Control completed investigations of 118 loss of containment incidents involving hazardous substances from this group. On the basis of investigation reports the incidents were entered in a tailor-made tool called Storybuilder developed for the Dutch Ministry of Social Affairs and Employment for identifying the dominant patterns of technical safety barrier failures, barrier task failures and underlying management causes associated with the resulting loss of control events. The model is a bow-tie structure with six lines of defence, three on either side of the central loss of containment event. In the first line of defence, failures in the safety barriers leading to loss of control events were primarily equipment condition failures, pre start-up and safeguarding failures and process deviations such as pressure and flow failures. These deviations, which should have been recovered while still within the safe envelope of operation, were missed primarily because of inadequate indication signals that the deviations have occurred. Through failures of subsequent lines of defence they are developing into serious incidents. Overall, task failures are principally failures to provide adequate technical safety barriers and failures to operate provided barriers appropriately. Underlying management delivery failures were mainly found in equipment specifications and provisions, procedures and competence. The competence delivery system is especially important for identifying equipment condition, equipment isolation for maintenance, pre-start-up status and process deviations. Human errors associated with operating barriers were identified in fifty per cent of cases, were mostly mistakes and feature primarily in failure to prevent deviations and subsequently recover them. Loss of control associated with loss of containment was primarily due to the containment being bypassed (72% of incidents) and less to material strength failures (28%). Transfer pipework, connections in process plant and relief valves are the most frequent release points and the dominant release material is extremely flammable. It is concluded that the analysis of a large number of incidents in Storybuilder can support the quantification of underlying causes and provide evidence of where the weak points exist in major hazard control in the prevention of major accidents.     

Hummingbird with modern feathering: an exceptionally well-preserved Oligocene fossil from southern France

Hummingbirds (Trochilidae) today have an exclusively New World distribution, but their pre-Pleistocene fossil record comes from Europe only. In this study, we describe an exceptionally preserved fossil hummingbird from the early Oligocene of southeastern France. The specimen is articulated, with a completely preserved beak and feathering. Osteological characters allow to identify it as Eurotrochilus sp. This genus is a stem group representative of Trochilidae and was recently described from the early Oligocene of southern Germany. The new fossil reveals that these European Trochilidae were remarkably modern in size, skeletal proportions and the shape of the wing, tail and beak and hyoid bones. These features confirm the early acquisition of the abilities of hovering and nectarivory in hummingbirds, probably before the Oligocene. In several morphological characteristics, they resemble members of the 'true hummingbirds' (subfamily Trochilinae) and differ from hermits (Phaethornithinae). These features, which include a short and square tail and a moderately long, almost straight beak, appear to be primitive within the family Trochilidae.     

Habitat segregation mediates predation by the benthic fish <Emphasis Type="Italic">Cottus gobio</Emphasis> on the exotic amphipod species <Emphasis Type="Italic">Gammarus roeseli</Emphasis>

Predation is often considered as one of the most important biotic factor determining the success of exotic species. The freshwater amphipod Gammarus roeseli has widely colonized Western Europe, where it is frequently found in sympatry with the native species (Gammarus pulex). Previous laboratory experiments revealed that G. roeseli may have an advantage over G. pulex through differential predation by native fish (brown trout). Morphological anti-predator defences (spines) were found responsible for lower rates of predation on the invasive G. roeseli. Here, using both field surveys and laboratory experiments, we tested if a differential of predation exists with other fish predators naturally encountered by gammarids. The main predators present in our field site were nocturnal benthic feeders (mainly bullheads, Cottus gobio). Fish diet analysis showed that, compared to its global availability in the river, G. roeseli was less consumed than G. pulex. In the field, however, G. roeseli was found mainly in the aquatic vegetation whereas G. pulex was found in all habitat types. Laboratory experiments in microcosms revealed that G. roeseli was less prone to predation by C. gobio only when vegetation was present. Depending on the type of predator, the differential of predation could therefore be mediated by antipredator behaviour, and a better usage of refuges, rather than by morphological defences.     

Development of a sampling method for the simultaneous monitoring of straight-chain alkanes, straight-chain saturated carbonyl compounds and monoterpenes in remote areas

Studies have shown that biogenic compounds, long chain secondary compounds and long lifetime anthropogenic compounds are involved in the formation of organic aerosols in both polluted areas and remote places. This work aims at developing an active sampling method to monitor these compounds (i.e. 6 straight-chain saturated aldehydes from C6 to C11; 8 straight-chain alkanes from C9 to C16; 6 monoterpenes: α-pinene, β-pinene, camphene, limonene, α-terpinene, & γ-terpinene; and 5 aromatic compounds: toluene, ethylbenzene, meta-, para- and ortho-xylenes) in remote areas. Samples are collected onto multi-bed sorbent cartridges at 200 mL min(-1) flow rate, using the automatic sampler SyPAC (TERA-Environnement, Crolles, France). No breakthrough was observed for sampling volumes up to 120 L (standard mixture at ambient temperature, with a relative humidity of 75%). As ozone has been shown to alter the samples (losses of 90% of aldehydes and up to 95% of terpenes were observed), the addition of a conditioned manganese dioxide (MnO(2)) scrubber to the system has been validated (full recovery of the affected compounds for a standard mixture at 50% relative humidity--RH). Samples are first thermodesorbed and then analysed by GC/FID/MS. This method allows suitable detection limits (from 2 ppt for camphene to 13 ppt for octanal--36 L sampled), and reproducibility (from 1% for toluene to 22% for heptanal). It has been successfully used to determine the diurnal variation of the target compounds (six 3 h samples a day) during winter and summer measurement campaigns at a remote site in the south of France.     

Interannual dynamics of antibody levels in naturally infected long-lived colonial birds

Little is known about the long-term persistence of specific antibodies (Ab) in natural host-parasite systems despite its potential epidemiological and ecological importance. In long-lived species, knowledge of the dynamics of individual immunological profiles can be important not only for interpreting serology results, but also for assessing transmission dynamics and the potential selective pressures acting on parasites. The aim of this paper was to investigate temporal variation in levels of specific Ab against the bacterium Borrelia burgdorferi sensu lato in adults of a long-lived colonial seabird, the Black-legged Kittiwake Rissa tridactyla. In wild populations, adults are naturally exposed each breeding season to a Borrelia vector, the tick Ixodes uriae. Breeding birds were captured during four consecutive breeding seasons, and parasite infestation quantified. Using enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA) and immunoblots, we found that the immunological profiles of anti-Borrelia Ab were highly repeatable among years, reflecting the interannual persistence of Ab levels. We nevertheless also observed that year-to-year changes of Ab levels were related to exposure to ticks in the previous year. The long-term persistence of Ab levels may be an important mechanism of individual protection against future exposure to the microparasite. It will also affect the availability of susceptible hosts, and thus the transmission dynamics of the bacterium. These results illustrate the need to consider the dynamics of the immune response in order to better understand the evolutionary ecology of host-parasite interactions in natural populations.     

An integrated assessment of estrogenic contamination and biological effects in the aquatic environment of The Netherlands

An extensive study was carried out in the Netherlands on the occurrence of a number of estrogenic compounds in surface water, sediment, biota, wastewater, rainwater and on the associated effects in fish. Compounds investigated included natural and synthetic hormones, phthalates, alkylphenol(ethoxylate)s and bisphenol-A. The results showed that almost all selected (xeno-)estrogens were present at low concentrations in the aquatic environment. Locally, they were found at higher levels. Hormones and nonylphenol(ethoxylate)s were present in concentrations that are reportedly high enough to cause estrogenic effects in fish. Field surveys did not disclose significant estrogenic effects in male flounder (Platichthys flesus) in the open sea and in Dutch estuaries. Minor to moderate estrogenic effects were observed in bream (Abramis brama) in major inland surface waters such as lowland rivers and a harbor area. The prevalence of feminizing effects in male fish is largest in small regional surface waters that are strongly influenced by sources of potential hormone-disrupting compounds. High concentrations of plasma vitellogenin and an increased prevalence of ovotestes occurred in wild male bream in a small river receiving a considerable load of effluent from a large sewage treatment plant. After employing in vitro and in vivo bioassays, both in situ and in the laboratory, we conclude that in this case hormones (especially 17 alpha-ethynylestradiol) and possibly also nonylphenol(ethoxylate)s are primarily responsible for these effects.