Estimating willingness to pay for a hypothetical earthquake early warning systems

The development of reliable, accessible, and transparent earthquake early warning systems (EEWSs) for disaster reduction have been given increased priority at local, national, and international levels. Accurately quantifying the social and economic benefits accrued to households and businesses from EEWSs are a challenging and difficult task. In this paper, the Contingent Valuation Method (CVM) is used to evaluate the benefits of a hypothetical EEWS to the citizens of Tehran Metropolitan. This study clarifies public willingness to pay (WTP) for EEWS in Tehran, and the dominant factors involved in WTP through a CVM analysis. The survey, completed by more than 504 households, showed that on average households are willing to pay 367,471 Rials (~38 US$) per month for the hypothetical EEWS. Those willing to pay the most for EEWS are households, which currently possess a fire alarm. Also the more educated the respondents and the more children the respondents have, the more willing they are to pay for EEWS. These results could be used by policy makers and technology firms in order to determine the optimal investments in early warning systems for earthquake disaster reduction.     

Mandated to fail? Humanitarian agencies and the protection of Palestinian children

This paper considers the efforts of United Nations and international agencies to address the threats to Palestinian children arising from Israeli occupation. It contains an account of the reasons why agencies have failed, over many years, to prevent systematic violations by the Israeli authorities and settlers. The discussion is organised around two inter‐related domains: institutional and political. The paper argues that, in the occupied Palestinian territory (oPt), limitations to the ways in which child protection has been conceptualised and pursued in practice are abundantly evident. Nevertheless, political pressure by Western donor governments serves to constrain an approach to child protection that is more preventative in nature, that addresses more explicitly Israeli violations of international law, and that reflects the experience and aspirations of Palestinian children themselves. Ultimately, therefore, the failure to protect Palestinian children must be seen not only as a result of humanitarian miscalculation but also as a consequence of political strategy.     

Climate change,marine policy and the valuation of Mediterranean intertidal ecosystems

This commentary describes a gap in the qualitative and quantitative knowledge of the provision of benefits to humans from the intertidal ecosystems of the Mediterranean and offers a framework for quantification of the benefits provided by these systems. The identification of such benefits, understanding their spatial distribution and their subsequent quantification will be critical to the design of policy responses to future climate change, sea level rise and seawater acidification. A baseline understanding of the current state of ecosystem functions, as well as of the provision of related ecosystem services, is therefore needed. Further, researchers must strive to generate forecasts of the changes in these functions and services conditional on policy responses and the range of expectations for climate change.     

Towards improved socio-economic assessments of ocean acidification’s impacts

Ocean acidification is increasingly recognized as a component of global change that could have a wide range of impacts on marine organisms, the ecosystems they live in, and the goods and services they provide humankind. Assessment of these potential socio-economic impacts requires integrated efforts between biologists, chemists, oceanographers, economists and social scientists. But because ocean acidification is a new research area, significant knowledge gaps are preventing economists from estimating its welfare impacts. For instance, economic data on the impact of ocean acidification on significant markets such as fisheries, aquaculture and tourism are very limited (if not non-existent), and non-market valuation studies on this topic are not yet available. Our paper summarizes the current understanding of future OA impacts and sets out what further information is required for economists to assess socio-economic impacts of ocean acidification. Our aim is to provide clear directions for multidisciplinary collaborative research.     

Cascading effects of long-term land-use changes on plant traits and ecosystem functioning

There is much concern that the functioning of ecosystems will be affected by human-induced changes in biodiversity, of which land-use change is the most important driver. However, changes in biodiversity may be only one of many pathways through which land use alters ecosystem functioning, and its importance relative to other pathways remains unclear. In particular, although biodiversity-ecosystem function research has focused primarily on grasslands, the increases in agricultural inputs (e.g., fertilization, irrigation) and grazing pressure that drive change in grasslands worldwide have been largely ignored. Here we show that long-term (27-year) manipulations of soil resource availability and sheep grazing intensity caused marked, consistent shifts in grassland plant functional composition and diversity, with cascading (i.e., causal chains of) direct, indirect, and interactive effects on multiple ecosystem functions. Resource availability exerted dominant control over above-ground net primary production (ANPP), both directly and indirectly via shifts in plant functional composition. Importantly, the effects of plant functional diversity and grazing intensity on ANPP shifted from negative to positive as agricultural inputs increased, providing strong evidence that soil resource availability modulates the impacts of plant diversity and herbivory on primary production. These changes in turn altered litter decomposition and, ultimately, soil carbon sequestration, highlighting the relevance of ANPP as a key integrator of ecosystem functioning. Our study reveals how human alterations of bottom-up (resources) and top-down (herbivory) forces together interact to control the functioning of grazing systems, the most extensive land use on Earth.     

A foundation for developing a methodology for social network sampling

Researchers are increasingly turning to network theory to understand the social nature of animal populations. We present a computational framework that is the first step in a series of works that will allow us to develop a quantitative methodology of social network sampling to aid ecologists in their social network data collection. To develop our methodology, we need to be able to generate networks from which to sample. Ideally, we need to perform a systematic study of sampling protocols on different known network structures, as network structure might affect the robustness of any particular sampling methodology. Thus, we present a computational tool for generating network structures that have user-defined distributions for network properties and for key measures of interest to ecologists. The user defines the values of these measures and the tool will generate appropriate network randomizations with those properties. This tool will be used as a framework for developing a sampling methodology, although we do not present a full methodology here. We describe the method used by the tool, demonstrate its effectiveness, and discuss how the tool can now be utilized. We provide a proof-of-concept example (using the assortativity measure) of how such networks can be used, along with a simulated egocentric sampling regime, to test the level of equivalence of the sampled network to the actual network. This contribution is part of the special issue “Social Networks: new perspectives” (Guest Editors: J. Krause, D. Lusseau and R. James).     

Grassland root communities: species distributions and how they are linked to aboveground abundance

There is little comprehensive information on the distribution of root systems among coexisting species, despite the expected importance of those distributions in determining the composition and diversity of plant communities. This gap in knowledge is particularly acute for grasslands, which possess large numbers of species with morphologically indistinguishable roots. In this study we adapted a molecular method, fluorescent fragment length polymorphism, to identify root fragments and determine species root distributions in two grasslands in Yellowstone National Park (YNP). Aboveground biomass was measured, and soil cores (2 cm in diameter) were collected to depths of 40 cm and 90 cm in an upland, dry grassland and a mesic, slope-bottom grassland, respectively, at peak foliar expansion. Cores were subdivided, and species that occurred in each 10-cm interval were identified. The results indicated that the average number of species in 10-cm intervals (31 cm3) throughout the sampled soil profile was 3.9 and 2.8 species at a dry grassland and a mesic grassland, respectively. By contrast, there was an average of 6.7 and 14.1 species per 0.5 m2, determined by the presence of shoot material, at dry and mesic sites, respectively. There was no relationship between soil depth and number of species per 10-cm interval in either grassland, despite the exponential decline of root biomass with soil depth at both sites. There also was no relationship between root frequency (i.e., the percentage of samples in which a species occurred) and soil depth for the vast majority of species at both sites. The preponderance of species were distributed throughout the soil profile at both sites. Assembly analyses indicated that species root occurrences were randomly assorted in all soil intervals at both sites, with the exception that Festuca idahoensis segregated from Artemisia tridentata and Pseudoroegnaria spicata in 10-20 cm soil at the dry grassland. Root frequency throughout the entire sampled soil profile was positively associated with shoot biomass among species. Together these results indicated the importance of large, well-proliferated root systems in establishing aboveground dominance. The findings suggest that spatial belowground segregation of species probably plays a minor role in fostering resource partitioning and species coexistence in these YNP grasslands.     

Utilization of partially predated snail shells by the hermit crab Pagurus longicarpus Say, 1817

The hermit crab Pagurus longicarpus was shown to inhabit shells that were partially predated from intertidal areas of Long Island, New York. Among field collections of P. longicarpus, 2.13% of the hermit crabs (46 of 2155) were found with shells with snail tissue present. Over 90% of these partially predated snail shells were occupied by male hermit crabs. Although hermit crabs were in 8 species of snail shells, only Littorina littorea and Nassarius obsoletus were found occupied by hermit crabs and containing snail tissue. In the laboratory, we found that specimens of the spider crab Libinia emarginata were able to pull off the operculum of snails, leaving damage as found in field collections. In contrast, specimens of P. longicarpus were not able to prey on live, healthy snails. When specimens of P. longicarpus were placed in communal tanks, hermit crabs preferred partially predated snail shells to empty and original shells. However, original shells and empty shells were occupied with more frequency than partially predated shells when crabs were isolated. These findings indicate P. longicarpus actively seeks shells soon after attack and abandonment by snail predators, especially in the presence of competitors.     

Lotka-Volterra competition models for sessile organisms

Markov models are widely used to describe the dynamics of communities of sessile organisms, because they are easily fitted to field data and provide a rich set of analytical tools. In typical ecological applications, at any point in time, each point in space is in one of a finite set of states (e.g., species, empty space). The models aim to describe the probabilities of transitions between states. In most Markov models for communities, these transition probabilities are assumed to be independent of state abundances. This assumption is often suspected to be false and is rarely justified explicitly. Here, we start with simple assumptions about the interactions among sessile organisms and derive a model in which transition probabilities depend on the abundance of destination states. This model is formulated in continuous time and is equivalent to a Lotka-Volterra competition model. We fit this model and a variety of alternatives in which transition probabilities do not depend on state abundances to a long-term coral reef data set. The Lotka-Volterra model describes the data much better than all models we consider other than a saturated model (a model with a separate parameter for each transition at each time interval, which by definition fits the data perfectly). Our approach provides a basis for further development of stochastic models of sessile communities, and many of the methods we use are relevant to other types of community. We discuss possible extensions to spatially explicit models.     

Aquatic metabolism and ecosystem health assessment using dissolved O2 stable isotope diel curves.

Dissolved O2 concentration and delta18O-O2 diel curves can be combined to assess aquatic photosynthesis, respiration, and metabolic balance, and to disentangle some of the confounding factors associated with interpretation of traditional O2 concentration curves. A dynamic model is used to illustrate how six key environmental and biological parameters interact to affect diel O2 saturation and delta18O-O2 curves, thereby providing a fundamental framework for the use of delta18O-O2 in ecosystem productivity studies. delta18O-O2 provides information unavailable from concentration alone because delta18O-O2 and saturation curves are not symmetrical and can be used to constrain gas exchange and isotopic fractionation by eliminating many common assumptions. Changes in key parameters affect diel O2 saturation and delta18O-O2 curves as follows: (1) an increase in primary production and respiration rates increases the diel range of O2 saturation and delta18O-O2 and decreases the mean delta18O-O2 value; (2) a decrease in the primary production to respiration ratio (P:R) decreases the level of O2 saturation and increases the delta18O-O2 values; (3) an increase in the gas exchange rate decreases the diel range of O2 saturation and delta18O-O2 values and moves the mean O2 saturation and delta18O-O2 values toward atmospheric equilibrium; (4) a decrease in strength of the respiratory isotopic fractionation (alphaR closer to 1) has no effect on O2 saturation and decreases the delta18O-O2 values; (5) an increase in the delta18O of water has no effect on O2 saturation and increases the minimum (daytime) delta18O-O2 value; and (6) an increase in temperature reduces O2 solubility and thus increases the diel range of O2 saturation and delta18O-O2 values. Understanding the interplay between these key parameters makes it easier to decipher the controls on O2 and delta18O-O2, compare aquatic ecosystems, and make quantitative estimates of ecosystem metabolism. The photosynthesis to respiration to gas exchange ratio (P:R:G) is better than the P:R ratio at describing and assessing the vulnerability of aquatic ecosystems under various environmental stressors by providing better constrained estimates of ecosystem metabolism and gas exchange.